Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Kansas State Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 9:30 PM ETT-Mobile Center · Neutral site

Final

#83KSUKansas St98▲ winner

Closing lineMSST -2.5✓ KSU covered by 23.5

Closing total164.5Over by 10.5

Season records: Mississippi St and Kansas St
MSST	This season	KSU
2-1	Record	4-0
0-3	ATS	1-3
1-2	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MSST 83–82 KSU · ✗ MSST (56%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MSST	36	41	77
KSU	44	54	98

1st half: MSST 36, KSU 44 (KSU by 8). The model had MSST by 1.1 and a total of 77.4 (actual 80).

Team stats

MSST		KSU
26-60 43%	Field goals	37-73 51%
7-25 28%	3-pointers	14-30 47%
18-23 78%	Free throws	10-11 91%
34 9 off	Rebounds	38 12 off
11	Assists	22
3	Steals	5
5	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	8
14	Fouls	19
30	Points in paint	42
4	Fast-break points	17

Players

MSST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Hubbard G	32	23	2	2	7-15	1-6
Ja'Borri McGhee G	30	1	0	4	0-5	0-1
Achor Achor F	24	5	9	0	1-5	1-3
Shawn Jones Jr. G	21	4	6	2	1-4	0-3
Quincy Ballard C	19	10	6	0	5-7	0-0
Bench
Jayden Epps G	20	18	2	1	6-11	4-7
Jamarion Davis-Fleming F	17	2	4	1	1-3	0-0
King Grace G	15	4	1	1	2-4	0-2
Sergej Macura F	10	3	2	0	1-2	1-2
Brandon Walker F	4	4	0	0	2-3	0-0
Amier Ali F	4	3	0	0	0-1	0-1
Dellquan Warren G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Gai Chol

KSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
PJ Haggerty G	34	37	7	8	13-21	4-7
Nate Johnson G	29	14	4	4	6-11	2-5
Abdi Bashir Jr. G	22	12	4	0	4-10	4-6
Elias Rapieque F	19	3	2	2	1-6	1-4
Khamari McGriff F	17	8	3	1	4-4	0-0
Bench
David Castillo G	24	9	3	2	3-7	1-2
Andrej Kostic G	16	7	2	2	2-6	2-5
Mobi Ikegwuruka F	13	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Dorin Buca C	11	2	3	0	1-3	0-1
CJ Jones G	9	0	2	2	0-0	0-0
Taj Manning F	3	2	0	1	1-1	0-0
Stephen Osei F	3	2	1	0	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Marcus Johnson, Exavier Wilson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MSST -2.5	MSST -1.6	KSU +0.9	W KSU covered
Total	164.5	165.2	Over 0.7	W Over
Projected score	—	MSST 83.4 · KSU 81.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSST -1.1	KSU -8.0
1H total	77.4	80
1H projected score	MSST 39.3 · KSU 38.1	MSST 36 · KSU 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MSST LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
KSU WLLL	1-3	25%	—	—

Venue/role: MSST neutral site, as favorite; KSU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
KSU OOOO	4-0	100%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSSTlast 3	2-1 67%	0-3 0%	1-2 33%
KSUlast 4	4-0 100%	1-3 25%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mississippi St

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −10.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

over 1under 2avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas St

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCG	W 93-64	-18.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsBELL	W 98-71	-28.5	L −1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 13	vsCAL	W 99-96	-6.5	L −3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 17	vsTLSA	W 84-83	-12.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+10.5

BELL

W 98-71

−1.5

CAL

W 99-96

−3.5

TLSA

W 84-83

−11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+8.5

BELL

W 98-71

+0.5

CAL

W 99-96

+30.5

TLSA

W 84-83

+6.5

over 4under 0avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Kansas State Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Mississippi St

Kansas St

Mississippi St

Kansas St