Troy Trojans at USC Trojans: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 10:00 PM ETGalen Center · at USC

#147TROYTroy106final

Final

#36USCUSC107▲ winner

Closing lineUSC -18.5✓ TROY covered by 17.5

Closing total159.5Over by 53.5

Season records: Troy and USC
TROY	This season	USC
3-2	Record	3-0
3-2	ATS	3-0
3-2	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TROY 76–92 USC · ✓ USC (92%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	2OT	3OT	T
TROY	29	39	10	11	17	106
USC	29	39	10	11	18	107

1st half: TROY 29, USC 29 (tied). The model had USC by 9.5 and a total of 78.3 (actual 58).

Team stats

TROY		USC
35-87 40%	Field goals	32-75 43%
11-32 34%	3-pointers	9-29 31%
25-35 71%	Free throws	34-46 74%
63 25 off	Rebounds	39 7 off
18	Assists	23
7	Steals	10
3	Blocks	12
20	Turnovers	13
33	Fouls	26
46	Points in paint	36
17	Fast-break points	13

Players

TROY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Thomas Dowd F	51	19	12	2	6-16	2-7
Cooper Campbell G	47	32	12	8	10-19	6-9
Victor Valdes F	40	24	5	3	9-24	1-6
Theo Seng F	38	20	8	0	8-14	1-3
Cobi Campbell G	11	0	2	0	0-3	0-1
Bench
Kerrington Kiel F	41	2	8	3	0-4	0-1
Austin Cross G	20	0	2	1	0-3	0-3
Jerrell Bellamy C	10	5	2	0	2-3	1-1
Javen Colbert G	9	1	0	0	0-1	0-1
Corbin Green F	5	3	3	1	0-0	0-0
Emmanuel Clarton G	3	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Hikaru Awata, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell

USC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chad Baker-Mazara G	53	34	9	2	10-22	3-10
Rodney Rice G	52	26	1	9	6-19	2-9
Amarion Dickerson F	34	9	3	3	3-7	1-4
Jacob Cofie F	33	2	5	0	1-3	0-0
Ezra Ausar F	28	22	7	0	8-11	0-0
Bench
Jerry Easter II G	32	7	8	3	2-5	1-2
Terrance Williams II F	16	1	1	0	0-2	0-1
Jordan Marsh G	16	6	1	5	2-4	2-2
Gabe Dynes C	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jaden Brownell F	5	0	0	1	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Patrick O'Brien, Brit Burden, Jonah Goorin, EJ Neal Jr., Alijah Arenas, Ryan Cornish

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USC -18.5	USC -16.1	TROY +2.4	W TROY covered
Total	159.5	167.1	Over 7.6	W Over
Projected score	—	TROY 75.5 · USC 91.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USC -9.5	PK
1H total	78.3	58
1H projected score	TROY 34.4 · USC 43.9	TROY 29 · USC 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WWLLW	3-2	60%	3-2	3-1
USC WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OUUOO	3-2	60%	3-2
USC UOU	1-2	33%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROYlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
USClast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Troy

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +25.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KENT	W 103-97	+3.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 200
Nov 7	@FUR	W 64-61	+2.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 125
Nov 14	@LMU	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 16	@CSUN	L 85-94	-4.5	L −13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 18	@SDSU	W 108-107	+14.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 215

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+9.5

FUR

W 64-61

+5.5

LMU

L 63-74

−6.5

CSUN

L 85-94

−13.5

SDSU

W 108-107

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+57.5

FUR

W 64-61

−27.5

LMU

L 63-74

−3.5

CSUN

L 85-94

+21.5

SDSU

W 108-107

+77.5

over 3under 2avg +25.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

USC

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg +11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCP	W 94-64	-24.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 9	vsMAN	W 114-83	-28.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 14	vsILST	W 87-67	-15.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-64

+5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+2.5

ILST

W 87-67

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-64

−5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+41.5

ILST

W 87-67

−1.5

over 1under 2avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Troy Trojans at USC Trojans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Troy

USC

Troy

USC