Illinois State Redbirds vs USC Trojans: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ETIntuit Dome · Neutral site

Final

#36USCUSC87▲ winner

Closing lineUSC -15.5✓ USC covered by 4.5

Closing total155.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Illinois St and USC
ILST	This season	USC
1-1	Record	2-0
1-1	ATS	2-0
0-2	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ILST 71–85 USC · ✓ USC (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ILST	26	41	67
USC	40	47	87

1st half: ILST 26, USC 40 (USC by 14). The model had USC by 8.2 and a total of 72.9 (actual 66).

Team stats

ILST		USC
24-70 34%	Field goals	29-57 51%
7-32 22%	3-pointers	6-18 33%
12-13 92%	Free throws	23-35 66%
39 17 off	Rebounds	36 10 off
11	Assists	20
2	Steals	6
2	Blocks	7
11	Turnovers	4
24	Fouls	17
30	Points in paint	34
4	Fast-break points	13

Players

ILST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Johnny Kinziger G	31	15	0	2	6-14	2-9
Ty'Reek Coleman G	31	16	3	2	6-13	1-4
Ty Pence G	29	9	7	2	4-9	1-3
Chase Walker F	20	6	9	1	2-10	0-1
Boden Skunberg G	14	0	1	0	0-3	0-2
Bench
Landon Wolf G	25	8	7	2	2-4	0-2
Brandon Lieb F	17	2	3	0	0-3	0-0
Mason Klabo G	12	3	1	2	1-5	1-4
Landon Moore G	9	2	1	0	1-3	0-2
Jack Daugherty F	8	6	1	0	2-6	2-5
Cameron Barnes F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ty Blake, Isaac Ericksen, Nick Allen

USC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Rodney Rice G	36	21	10	10	6-16	2-5
Chad Baker-Mazara G	33	18	4	2	7-13	2-4
Jacob Cofie F	32	8	6	2	3-8	1-4
Ezra Ausar F	15	13	2	3	4-4	0-0
Terrance Williams II F	12	4	1	0	1-2	0-1
Bench
Gabe Dynes C	32	14	5	3	6-7	0-0
Amarion Dickerson F	28	9	6	0	2-6	1-3
Jerry Easter II G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Jordan Marsh G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jaden Brownell F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jonah Goorin, Alijah Arenas, Brit Burden, Patrick O'Brien, EJ Neal Jr., Ryan Cornish

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USC -15.5	USC -13.8	ILST +1.7	L USC covered
Total	155.5	155.7	Over 0.2	L Under
Projected score	—	ILST 70.9 · USC 84.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USC -8.2	USC -14.0
1H total	72.9	66
1H projected score	ILST 32.4 · USC 40.6	ILST 26 · USC 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ILST LW	1-1	50%	—	0-1
USC WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0

Venue/role: ILST neutral site, as underdog; USC neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILST UU	0-2	0%	1-1
USC UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILSTlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
USClast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Illinois St

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −22.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@OHIO	L 68-72	+1.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 9	vsCOR	W 76-65	-6.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−2.5

COR

W 76-65

+4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−21.5

COR

W 76-65

−23.5

over 0under 2avg −22.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

USC

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +18 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCP	W 94-64	-24.5	W +5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 9	vsMAN	W 114-83	-28.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 197

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-64

+5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-64

−5.5

MAN

W 114-83

+41.5

over 1under 1avg +18 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Illinois State Redbirds vs USC Trojans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Illinois St

USC

Illinois St

USC