State Farm Center · at Illinois
Closing line
ILL -33.5✓ RGV covered by 19.5
ILL -33.5✓ RGV covered by 19.5Closing total164.5Under by 4.5
 RGV | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 5-1 |
| 2-2 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 2-2 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: RGV 67–97 ILL · ✓ ILL (100%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RGV | 31 | 42 | 73 |
| ILL | 42 | 45 | 87 |
1st half: RGV 31, ILL 42 (ILL by 11). The model had ILL by 17.7 and a total of 76.9 (actual 73).
Team stats
| RGV | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-68 40% | Field goals | 30-60 50% |
| 11-26 42% | 3-pointers | 8-30 27% |
| 8-16 50% | Free throws | 19-22 86% |
| 33 11 off | Rebounds | 43 9 off |
| 10 | Assists | 17 |
| 7 | Steals | 1 |
| 0 | Blocks | 3 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| RGV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin McGhee III G | 31 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 2-7 |
| Kye Dickson F | 29 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 8-14 | 2-5 |
| Filip Brankovic F | 25 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 5-10 | 3-4 |
| Always Wright G | 23 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-9 | 2-3 |
| Koree Cotton G | 15 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zae Blake G | 22 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| Julien Gomez G | 20 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Jaylen Washington Jr. G | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Dane Christensen F | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Kwo Agwa F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Marshal Destremau F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Mustafo Vanjov, Demarris Winters, Luis Ramirez, Jalen Ricks
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 31 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 11-17 | 1-5 |
| Keaton Wagler G | 30 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2-11 | 1-6 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 25 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| David Mirkovic F | 22 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 22 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 20 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 18 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 16 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4-5 | 1-1 |
| Jake Davis F | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Brandon Lee G | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Blake Fagbemi, Ty Rodgers
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -32.5
1 → ILL
CloseILL -33.5
1 pt toward ILL
Total
Open166.5
▼ 2
Close164.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -32.5 · closed ILL -33.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel ILL -29.5
model ILL -29.5
Opened 166.5 · closed 164.5 · moved 2 downmodel 164.5 matches the line
model 164.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ILL -33.5 | ILL -29.5 | RGV +4.0 | W RGV covered |
| Total | 164.5 | 164.3 | Under 0.2 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | RGV 67.4 · ILL 96.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ILL -17.7 | ILL -11.0 |
| 1H total | 76.9 | 73 |
| 1H projected score | RGV 29.6 · ILL 47.3 | RGV 31 · ILL 42 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RGVlast 4 | 1-3 25% | 2-2 50% | 2-2 50% |
| ILLlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
RGV 0–1 ILLILL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · RGV 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2021-22 | RGV 85 @ ILL 94 | ILL -26.5 | RGV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UT Rio Grande
4 games played
Straight up
1-3
25% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
BAY
BAYL 81-96
+9.5
8
@
SUU
SUUW 95-72
+21.5
11
@
BOIS
BOISL 65-85
−3.5
22
@
MOST
MOSTL 67-74
−3.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BAY
BAYL 81-96
+22.5
8
@SUU
SUUW 95-72
+6.5
11
@BOIS
BOISL 65-85
−11.5
22
@MOST
MOSTL 67-74
−8.5
over 2under 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
JKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vs
FGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vs
TTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vs
COLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vs
ALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vs
LIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
over 2under 4avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UT Rio Grande
1-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southland Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Missouri St67–74
- L@ Boise St65–85
- W@ Southern Utah95–72
- L@ Baylor81–96
2 days since their last game.
Illinois
5-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Long Island98–58
- Lvs Alabama86–90
- Wvs Colgate84–65
- Wvs Texas Tech81–77
- Wvs FGCU113–70
2 days since their last game.