Morehead State Eagles at Murray State Racers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 8:00 PM ETCFSB Center · at Murray St

Final

#132MURMurray St84▲ winner

Closing lineMUR -16.5✓ MUR covered by 15.5

Closing total158.5Under by 22.5

Season records: Morehead St and Murray St
MORE	This season	MUR
1-5	Record	5-3
2-4	ATS	5-3
2-4	O/U	7-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MORE 72–88 MUR · ✓ MUR (92%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MORE	28	24	52
MUR	33	51	84

1st half: MORE 28, MUR 33 (MUR by 5). The model had MUR by 9.5 and a total of 74.4 (actual 61).

Team stats

MORE		MUR
22-59 37%	Field goals	27-63 43%
3-12 25%	3-pointers	10-31 32%
5-10 50%	Free throws	20-29 69%
30 9 off	Rebounds	50 19 off
6	Assists	16
8	Steals	4
1	Blocks	2
11	Turnovers	11
22	Fouls	16
28	Points in paint	34
5	Fast-break points	18

Players

MORE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
George Marshall G	30	5	6	1	2-10	0-3
Anouar Mellouk F	29	9	3	0	4-10	1-3
Davion Cunningham G	26	10	4	1	3-6	1-2
Tamaury Releford C	20	8	2	0	4-7	0-0
Josiah LeGree G	14	2	1	1	1-4	0-1
Bench
Chase Dawson G	32	8	1	1	4-9	0-1
Jon Carroll F	17	2	4	0	1-5	0-0
Tyonne Farrell F	14	5	3	2	2-4	0-0
Vince Dawson III G	10	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Clayton Parker F	7	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Jace Winkleman G	1	3	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Kameren Wright, Jacob Wilson, Jarvis Wright, Jaden Priester

MUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mason Miller F	26	10	4	1	3-5	3-5
Layne Taylor G	23	5	3	5	2-6	1-3
JJ Traynor F	22	9	3	1	4-9	1-3
Fredrick King C	22	12	8	0	3-4	0-0
Javon Jackson G	17	14	3	4	3-11	2-5
Bench
Mathis Courbon G	23	10	3	1	4-7	2-5
Roman Domon G	18	10	10	1	4-7	0-1
KJ Tenner G	17	10	6	1	3-6	0-2
Brayden Shorter G	14	3	1	1	1-4	1-4
Dylan Anderson F	9	1	1	1	0-2	0-2
Brock Vice F	9	0	3	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Tristian Ford, Lachlan Crate, Dillon Butler, Ben Shtolzberg

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MUR -16.5	MUR -15.9	MORE +0.6	L MUR covered
Total	158.5	159.0	Over 0.5	L Under
Projected score	—	MORE 71.5 · MUR 87.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MUR -9.5	MUR -5.0
1H total	74.4	61
1H projected score	MORE 32.5 · MUR 41.9	MORE 28 · MUR 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MORE LWLLL	2-4	33%	2-3	2-3
MUR WWLLW	5-3	63%	3-0	4-1

Venue/role: MORE away, as underdog; MUR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MORE OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
MUR OOOUO	7-1	88%	5-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MORElast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
MURlast 8	5-3 63%	5-3 63%	7-1 88%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MORE 0–3 MURMUR leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · MUR has won the last 3 meetings · MORE 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 5, 2021-22	MORE 67 vs MUR 71	MUR -8	MORE W
Feb 12, 2021-22	MUR 57 @ MORE 53	MORE +3	MUR W
Jan 29, 2021-22	MORE 66 @ MUR 77	MUR -9.5	MUR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Morehead St

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@WAKE	L 65-81	+22.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 9	@UGA	L 81-120	+28.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 201
Nov 11	@CLEM	L 56-83	+29.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 21	@ETSU	L 62-77	+10.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 139
Nov 22	vsULM	W 83-80	-6.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 29	@IUIN	L 80-85	+3.5	L −1.5	181.5	U 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 65-81

+6.5

UGA

L 81-120

−10.5

CLEM

L 56-83

+2.5

ETSU

L 62-77

−4.5

ULM

W 83-80

−3.5

IUIN

L 80-85

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 65-81

−6.5

UGA

L 81-120

+50.5

CLEM

L 56-83

−12.5

ETSU

L 62-77

−5.5

ULM

W 83-80

+17.5

IUIN

L 80-85

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Murray St

8 games played

Straight up

5-3

63% wins

Against the spread

5-3

63% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-1

88% overs · avg +10.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-363%

W W L W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-363%

W W L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-188%

O O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsOMA	W 85-77	-5.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMVSU	W 108-60	-38.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 11	@SMU	L 91-102	+10.5	L −0.5	164.5	O 193
Nov 15	vsNICH	W 99-79	-14.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 18	vsLR	W 89-68	-13.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 23	vsMTSU	L 87-90	-6.5	L −9.5	161.5	O 177
Nov 24	vsMCN	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 25	vsGW	W 96-95	+7.5	W +8.5	167.5	O 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+2.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+9.5

SMU

L 91-102

−0.5

NICH

W 99-79

+5.5

W 89-68

+7.5

MTSU

L 87-90

−9.5

MCN

L 60-73

−10.5

W 96-95

+8.5

covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+8.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+8.5

SMU

L 91-102

+28.5

NICH

W 99-79

+20.5

W 89-68

+3.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+15.5

MCN

L 60-73

−25.5

W 96-95

+23.5

over 7under 1avg +10.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Morehead State Eagles at Murray State Racers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Morehead St

Murray St

Morehead St

Murray St