Wagner Seahawks at Maryland Terrapins: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 8:00 PM ETXFINITY Center · at Maryland

#354WAGWagner63final

Final

#50MDMaryland89▲ winner

Closing lineMD -22.5✓ MD covered by 3.5

Closing total143.5Over by 8.5

Season records: Wagner and Maryland
WAG	This season	MD
1-5	Record	5-3
5-1	ATS	2-6
4-2	O/U	6-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WAG 65–84 MD · ✓ MD (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WAG	26	37	63
MD	33	56	89

1st half: WAG 26, MD 33 (MD by 7). The model had MD by 11.7 and a total of 69.6 (actual 59).

Team stats

WAG		MD
21-57 37%	Field goals	26-64 41%
6-23 26%	3-pointers	5-20 25%
15-18 83%	Free throws	32-45 71%
37 9 off	Rebounds	48 20 off
10	Assists	12
2	Steals	10
2	Blocks	4
18	Turnovers	8
30	Fouls	18
22	Points in paint	40
9	Fast-break points	10

Players

WAG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Jones G	31	16	2	1	4-11	1-1
Eddie Placer G	30	6	3	1	3-7	0-4
Jaden Baker G	29	13	7	2	4-14	3-10
Sam Smith F	23	10	6	0	3-9	2-5
Bryan Akanmu F	7	0	2	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
John Awoke G	22	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Bin Basil F	19	8	5	0	4-6	0-1
Michael Cooper G	16	4	3	2	0-4	0-1
Zavier Fitch F	15	2	5	3	1-1	0-0
Elijah Brown G	7	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Makhai Anderson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Huascar Cuevas, Travis Gray

MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Pharrel Payne F	29	30	10	0	8-11	0-0
Myles Rice G	26	16	4	1	6-9	0-0
Darius Adams G	26	12	6	2	3-12	2-4
Solomon Washington F	25	10	6	0	3-6	0-0
Elijah Saunders F	23	9	5	1	3-7	3-6
Bench
David Coit G	23	4	2	4	1-3	0-1
Andre Mills G	19	2	3	1	0-9	0-5
Isaiah Watts G	13	0	2	2	0-2	0-1
Collin Metcalf C	6	6	6	0	2-2	0-0
Guillermo Del Pino G	6	0	0	1	0-3	0-3
Aleks Alston F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Rakease Passmore, Nick Blake, Jaziah Harper, Lukas Sotell, George Turkson Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MD -22.5	MD -19.6	WAG +2.9	L MD covered
Total	143.5	148.6	Over 5.1	W Over
Projected score	—	WAG 64.5 · MD 84.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MD -11.7	MD -7.0
1H total	69.6	59
1H projected score	WAG 29 · MD 40.6	WAG 26 · MD 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAG WWWWW	5-1	83%	5-1	5-1
MD WLWLL	2-6	25%	0-3	1-4

Venue/role: WAG away, as underdog; MD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAG UUOOO	4-2	67%	1-5
MD OOUOO	6-2	75%	5-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAGlast 6	1-5 17%	5-1 83%	4-2 67%
MDlast 8	5-3 63%	2-6 25%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wagner

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +6.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +18.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VCU	L 74-103	+25.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 177
Nov 7	@HALL	L 61-68	+21.5	W +14.5	134.5	U 129
Nov 11	@FOR	L 61-63	+12.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 124
Nov 16	@UMBC	L 70-71	+6.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 22	@GTWN	L 75-92	+25.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 167
Nov 26	@MAN	W 103-101	+2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VCU

L 74-103

−3.5

HALL

L 61-68

+14.5

FOR

L 61-63

+10.5

UMBC

L 70-71

+5.5

GTWN

L 75-92

+8.5

MAN

W 103-101

+4.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VCU

L 74-103

+43.5

HALL

L 61-68

−5.5

FOR

L 61-63

−15.5

UMBC

L 70-71

+0.5

GTWN

L 75-92

+26.5

MAN

W 103-101

+59.5

over 4under 2avg +18.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maryland

8 games played

Straight up

5-3

63% wins

Against the spread

2-6

25% covers · avg −8.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-2

75% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-363%

W L W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-625%

L L L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-275%

O U O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOPP	W 83-61	-28.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 7	vsGTWN	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsALCN	W 84-64	-29.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 15	@MARQ	W 89-82	+8.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsMSM	W 95-90	-17.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 24	vsUNLV	W 74-67	-2.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsGONZ	L 61-100	+14.5	L −24.5	157.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsALA	L 72-105	+14.5	L −18.5	166.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

−6.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

−9.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+15.5

MSM

W 95-90

−12.5

UNLV

W 74-67

+4.5

GONZ

L 61-100

−24.5

ALA

L 72-105

−18.5

covered 2didn’t cover 6avg −8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

+4.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

+1.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+24.5

MSM

W 95-90

+39.5

UNLV

W 74-67

−23.5

GONZ

L 61-100

+3.5

ALA

L 72-105

+10.5

over 6under 2avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wagner @ Maryland

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Wagner

Maryland

Wagner

Maryland