Maryland Terrapins vs Gonzaga Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 9:30 PM ETMGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site

#50MDMaryland61final

Final

#17GONZGonzaga AP #12100▲ winner

Closing lineGONZ -14.5✓ GONZ covered by 24.5

Closing total157.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Maryland and Gonzaga
MD	This season	GONZ
5-1	Record	6-0
2-4	ATS	5-1
4-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MD 71–85 GONZ · ✓ GONZ (90%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MD	32	29	61
GONZ	47	53	100

1st half: MD 32, GONZ 47 (GONZ by 15). The model had GONZ by 8.6 and a total of 73.0 (actual 79).

Team stats

MD		GONZ
20-55 36%	Field goals	37-64 58%
5-21 24%	3-pointers	14-33 42%
16-23 70%	Free throws	12-15 80%
29 14 off	Rebounds	39 13 off
9	Assists	30
5	Steals	12
3	Blocks	3
18	Turnovers	12
20	Fouls	21
22	Points in paint	44
0	Fast-break points	10

Players

MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Saunders F	27	8	2	1	3-5	0-2
Darius Adams G	26	13	0	0	3-8	2-4
David Coit G	26	6	0	4	2-7	0-4
Andre Mills G	21	11	3	0	4-8	1-1
Pharrel Payne F	20	14	7	0	5-10	0-0
Bench
Aleks Alston F	22	2	8	0	1-3	0-2
Isaiah Watts G	21	3	2	3	1-6	1-5
Collin Metcalf C	15	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Guillermo Del Pino G	12	3	1	0	1-5	1-3
Myles Rice G	10	1	1	1	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Solomon Washington, Lukas Sotell, Rakease Passmore, Jaziah Harper, George Turkson Jr., Nick Blake

GONZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Graham Ike F	27	13	6	4	4-7	1-2
Braden Huff F	24	20	3	3	9-10	1-2
Adam Miller G	23	5	1	2	2-5	1-4
Mario Saint-Supery G	22	5	3	9	2-6	1-5
Tyon Grant-Foster G	16	6	4	3	3-7	0-2
Bench
Jalen Warley G	20	5	3	1	2-2	0-0
Emmanuel Innocenti G	18	15	5	2	5-7	5-7
Braeden Smith G	16	5	1	5	2-3	1-1
Steele Venters G	15	14	3	1	4-7	4-7
Ismaila Diagne C	7	4	1	0	1-1	0-0
Davis Fogle G	6	8	4	0	3-7	0-1
Joaquim ArauzMoore G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cade Orness G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Noah Haaland F	2	0	0	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Alonzo Metz, Parker Jefferson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GONZ -14.5	GONZ -14.4	MD +0.1	L GONZ covered
Total	157.5	155.9	Under 1.6	L Over
Projected score	—	MD 70.7 · GONZ 85.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GONZ -8.6	GONZ -15.0
1H total	73.0	79
1H projected score	MD 32.2 · GONZ 40.8	MD 32 · GONZ 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MD LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-0
GONZ WWLWW	5-1	83%	1-0	5-1

Venue/role: MD neutral site, as underdog; GONZ neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD UOOOU	4-2	67%	5-1
GONZ UUUOO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MDlast 6	5-1 83%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%
GONZlast 6	6-0 100%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Maryland

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +5.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOPP	W 83-61	-28.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 7	vsGTWN	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsALCN	W 84-64	-29.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 15	@MARQ	W 89-82	+8.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsMSM	W 95-90	-17.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 24	vsUNLV	W 74-67	-2.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

−6.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

−9.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+15.5

MSM

W 95-90

−12.5

UNLV

W 74-67

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

+4.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

+1.5

MARQ

W 89-82

+24.5

MSM

W 95-90

+39.5

UNLV

W 74-67

−23.5

over 4under 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Gonzaga

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +14.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXSO	W 98-43	-29.5	W +25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 8	vsOU	W 83-68	-10.5	W +4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsCREI	W 90-63	-12.5	W +14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	@ASU	W 77-65	-13.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsSUU	W 122-50	-35.5	W +36.5	160.5	O 172
Nov 24	vsALA	W 95-85	-4.5	W +5.5	178.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

+25.5

W 83-68

+4.5

CREI

W 90-63

+14.5

ASU

W 77-65

−1.5

SUU

W 122-50

+36.5

ALA

W 95-85

+5.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +14.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

−16.5

W 83-68

−15.5

CREI

W 90-63

−11.5

ASU

W 77-65

−16.5

SUU

W 122-50

+11.5

ALA

W 95-85

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Maryland Terrapins vs Gonzaga Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Maryland

Gonzaga

Maryland

Gonzaga