Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 9:30 PM ETMGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site

#17GONZGonzaga AP #1295▲ winner

Final

#15ALAAlabama AP #885final

Closing lineGONZ -4.5✓ GONZ covered by 5.5

Closing total178.5Over by 1.5

Season records: Gonzaga and Alabama
GONZ	This season	ALA
5-0	Record	3-1
4-1	ATS	2-2
1-4	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GONZ 85–87 ALA · ✗ ALA (54%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GONZ	45	50	95
ALA	42	43	85

1st half: GONZ 45, ALA 42 (GONZ by 3). The model had ALA by 0.6 and a total of 80.4 (actual 87).

Team stats

GONZ		ALA
35-72 49%	Field goals	31-67 46%
6-22 27%	3-pointers	9-29 31%
19-26 73%	Free throws	14-23 61%
48 20 off	Rebounds	36 13 off
13	Assists	13
7	Steals	7
3	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	13
20	Fouls	20
52	Points in paint	42
16	Fast-break points	10

Players

GONZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Graham Ike F	33	21	11	3	8-19	0-1
Mario Saint-Supery G	32	10	5	6	0-2	0-1
Tyon Grant-Foster G	30	21	7	1	9-16	1-4
Braden Huff F	26	18	8	2	9-12	0-1
Adam Miller G	15	7	3	0	2-8	1-5
Bench
Steele Venters G	23	12	2	0	4-9	4-8
Jalen Warley G	20	2	3	0	1-2	0-0
Emmanuel Innocenti G	12	4	2	1	2-3	0-1
Braeden Smith G	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Davis Fogle G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Parker Jefferson, Alonzo Metz, Noah Haaland, Ismaila Diagne, Cade Orness, Joaquim ArauzMoore

ALA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Labaron Philon Jr. G	37	29	0	7	11-18	3-6
Aiden Sherrell F	30	14	6	2	6-9	0-1
Aden Holloway G	28	13	3	2	4-15	2-10
Houston Mallette G	26	0	2	0	0-2	0-2
Taylor Bol Bowen F	14	2	4	1	1-3	0-1
Bench
Amari Allen G	30	14	4	1	4-7	2-4
Keitenn Bristow F	19	7	11	0	3-9	0-2
London Jemison F	8	6	4	0	2-2	2-2
Davion Hannah G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Noah Williamson C	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Jacob Martin, Klark James, Collins Onyejiaka, Jack Fagan, Jalil Bethea, Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Preston Murphy Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GONZ -4.5	ALA -1.3	ALA +5.8	L GONZ covered
Total	178.5	171.7	Under 6.8	L Over
Projected score	—	GONZ 85.2 · ALA 86.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ALA -0.6	GONZ -3.0
1H total	80.4	87
1H projected score	GONZ 39.9 · ALA 40.5	GONZ 45 · ALA 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GONZ WWWLW	4-1	80%	—	4-1
ALA LWLW	2-2	50%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: GONZ neutral site, as favorite; ALA neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GONZ UUUUO	1-4	20%	5-0
ALA UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GONZlast 5	5-0 100%	4-1 80%	1-4 20%
ALAlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GONZ 1–1 ALASeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · GONZ 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 17, 2022-23	GONZ 100 vs ALA 90	ALA -1.5	GONZ W
Dec 4, 2021-22	ALA 91 vs GONZ 82	GONZ -9.5	ALA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Gonzaga

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +15.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −9.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXSO	W 98-43	-29.5	W +25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 8	vsOU	W 83-68	-10.5	W +4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsCREI	W 90-63	-12.5	W +14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	@ASU	W 77-65	-13.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsSUU	W 122-50	-35.5	W +36.5	160.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

+25.5

W 83-68

+4.5

CREI

W 90-63

+14.5

ASU

W 77-65

−1.5

SUU

W 122-50

+36.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +15.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

−16.5

W 83-68

−15.5

CREI

W 90-63

−11.5

ASU

W 77-65

−16.5

SUU

W 122-50

+11.5

over 1under 4avg −9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alabama

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUND	W 91-62	-36.5	L −7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 8	@SJU	W 103-96	+4.5	W +11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 13	vsPUR	L 80-87	-3.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 19	vsILL	W 90-86	+2.5	W +6.5	180.5	U 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−7.5

SJU

W 103-96

+11.5

PUR

L 80-87

−10.5

ILL

W 90-86

+6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 91-62

−17.5

SJU

W 103-96

+26.5

PUR

L 80-87

−5.5

ILL

W 90-86

−4.5

over 1under 3avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Gonzaga

Alabama

Gonzaga

Alabama