Missouri State Bears at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 3:00 PM ETReynolds Center · at Tulsa

Final

#108TLSATulsa98▲ winner

Closing lineTLSA -7.5✓ TLSA covered by 16.5

Closing total142.5Over by 29.5

Season records: Missouri St and Tulsa
MOST	This season	TLSA
1-3	Record	5-1
1-3	ATS	5-1
1-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MOST 65–79 TLSA · ✓ TLSA (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MOST	32	42	74
TLSA	48	50	98

1st half: MOST 32, TLSA 48 (TLSA by 16). The model had TLSA by 8.4 and a total of 67.4 (actual 80).

Team stats

MOST		TLSA
25-51 49%	Field goals	30-63 48%
13-26 50%	3-pointers	14-33 42%
11-19 58%	Free throws	24-30 80%
26 7 off	Rebounds	42 17 off
12	Assists	19
5	Steals	8
2	Blocks	1
14	Turnovers	7
21	Fouls	14
18	Points in paint	32
4	Fast-break points	7

Players

MOST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zaxton King G	35	10	3	1	4-7	2-4
Trey Williams Jr. G	33	12	1	2	4-9	4-8
Kobi Williams G	29	20	4	2	7-10	3-4
Keith Palek III F	26	15	4	2	5-13	1-4
Cameron Boone F	25	4	1	2	1-1	0-0
Bench
Darrion Sutton F	24	7	3	1	2-5	2-3
Melakih Cunningham G	22	6	4	2	2-6	1-3
Logan Epes G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Collin Clark, Ryder Cheesman, Antwan Burnett, Tyrique Brooks, Michael Osei-Bonsu, Amar Kuljuhovic

TLSA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ade Popoola G	26	11	2	5	4-11	3-9
Tylen Riley G	24	9	2	3	3-9	1-2
Miles Barnstable G	22	10	2	2	3-7	2-5
David Green F	20	17	3	1	6-11	3-7
Tyler Behrend F	17	9	7	3	3-5	1-2
Bench
Romad Dean F	22	8	4	2	3-4	2-3
Myles Rigsby G	20	14	3	1	3-4	0-0
Jaylen Lawal G	16	4	4	1	0-5	0-3
Ian Smikle F	15	6	4	0	2-4	0-0
KJ Martin Jr. F	12	10	2	1	3-3	2-2
Leon Sifferlin G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cal Conroy G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Carter Benton, Terrance Ford Jr., Doryan Onwuchekwa

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TLSA -7.5	TLSA -14.3	TLSA +6.8	W TLSA covered
Total	142.5	143.9	Over 1.4	W Over
Projected score	—	MOST 64.8 · TLSA 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TLSA -8.4	TLSA -16.0
1H total	67.4	80
1H projected score	MOST 29.5 · TLSA 37.9	MOST 32 · TLSA 48

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST LLWL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-1
TLSA LWWWW	5-1	83%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: MOST away, as underdog; TLSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST OUUU	1-3	25%	1-3
TLSA OOOUU	3-3	50%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOSTlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%
TLSAlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MOST 1–1 TLSASeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · MOST 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	TLSA 106 @ MOST 111	MOST +3.5	MOST W
Dec 16, 2023-24	MOST 72 @ TLSA 73	TLSA +0.5	TLSA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Missouri St

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsARST	L 85-86	-1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@UTA	L 49-67	+3.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 22	vsRGV	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsLIU	L 61-75	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

−2.5

UTA

L 49-67

−14.5

RGV

W 74-67

+3.5

LIU

L 61-75

−18.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

+18.5

UTA

L 49-67

−27.5

RGV

W 74-67

−8.5

LIU

L 61-75

−9.5

over 1under 3avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tulsa

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +9.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsURI	W 82-65	+3.5	W +20.5	153.5	U 147
Nov 12	@ORU	W 88-87	-5.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@KSU	L 83-84	+12.5	W +11.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 21	vsAPSU	W 84-75	-8.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsSJSU	W 81-51	-5.5	W +24.5	149.5	U 132
Nov 26	vsUNI	W 63-60	+2.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

URI

W 82-65

+20.5

ORU

W 88-87

−4.5

KSU

L 83-84

+11.5

APSU

W 84-75

+0.5

SJSU

W 81-51

+24.5

UNI

W 63-60

+5.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

URI

W 82-65

−6.5

ORU

W 88-87

+14.5

KSU

L 83-84

+6.5

APSU

W 84-75

+10.5

SJSU

W 81-51

−17.5

UNI

W 63-60

−14.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Missouri State Bears at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Missouri St

Tulsa

Missouri St

Tulsa