Austin Peay Governors at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 8:00 PM ETReynolds Center · at Tulsa

Final

#108TLSATulsa84▲ winner

Closing lineTLSA -8.5✓ TLSA covered by 0.5

Closing total148.5Over by 10.5

Season records: Austin Peay and Tulsa
APSU	This season	TLSA
2-2	Record	2-1
3-1	ATS	2-1
0-4	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: APSU 70–78 TLSA · ✓ TLSA (77%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
APSU	40	35	75
TLSA	33	51	84

1st half: APSU 40, TLSA 33 (APSU by 7). The model had TLSA by 4.9 and a total of 69.5 (actual 73).

Team stats

APSU		TLSA
28-59 47%	Field goals	28-58 48%
8-19 42%	3-pointers	13-32 41%
11-16 69%	Free throws	15-16 94%
30 8 off	Rebounds	32 8 off
15	Assists	21
6	Steals	4
0	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	11
16	Fouls	11
36	Points in paint	30
10	Fast-break points	8

Players

APSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Collin Parker F	35	14	4	1	5-9	1-2
Tate McCubbin G	32	12	8	2	4-14	2-7
Rashaud Marshall F	23	11	5	0	4-5	0-0
Zyree Collins PG	21	11	2	4	5-13	0-2
Anton Brookshire PG	20	8	0	0	3-4	2-3
Bench
Matt Enright PG	23	6	3	0	2-6	2-3
Creighton Morisch F	17	9	4	2	4-5	1-2
Ja'Corey Robinson G	16	4	1	5	1-3	0-0
Quan Lax G	13	0	2	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Travis Torain, Tyler Wagner, Terrell Gaines, Hansel Enmanuel

TLSA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Miles Barnstable G	35	10	5	4	3-8	2-7
David Green F	29	17	8	2	6-10	2-4
Tylen Riley G	29	20	2	4	5-11	2-4
Ade Popoola G	27	14	2	0	5-10	4-8
Tyler Behrend F	12	0	2	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Myles Rigsby G	18	6	3	3	2-4	0-2
KJ Martin Jr. F	16	5	2	2	2-4	1-1
Ian Smikle F	13	6	2	0	3-4	0-0
Jaylen Lawal G	11	0	1	4	0-2	0-2
Romad Dean F	10	6	4	1	2-3	2-3

Did not play: Leon Sifferlin, Carter Benton, Cal Conroy, Terrance Ford Jr., Doryan Onwuchekwa

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TLSA -8.5	TLSA -8.4	APSU +0.1	L TLSA covered
Total	148.5	148.3	Under 0.2	L Over
Projected score	—	APSU 69.9 · TLSA 78.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TLSA -4.9	APSU -7.0
1H total	69.5	73
1H projected score	APSU 32.3 · TLSA 37.2	APSU 40 · TLSA 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APSU WLWW	3-1	75%	3-1	2-1
TLSA WLW	2-1	67%	—	0-1

Venue/role: APSU away, as underdog; TLSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
APSU UUUU	0-4	0%	2-2
TLSA UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APSUlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	0-4 0%
TLSAlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Austin Peay

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +7.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −10 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AF	W 74-54	-1.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	@WYO	L 65-79	+5.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	@UNCG	W 69-63	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 18	@MISS	L 65-72	+20.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 74-54

+18.5

WYO

L 65-79

−8.5

UNCG

W 69-63

+7.5

MISS

L 65-72

+13.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 74-54

−8.5

WYO

L 65-79

−9.5

UNCG

W 69-63

−13.5

MISS

L 65-72

−8.5

over 0under 4avg −10 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tulsa

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +9.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsURI	W 82-65	+3.5	W +20.5	153.5	U 147
Nov 12	@ORU	W 88-87	-5.5	L −4.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@KSU	L 83-84	+12.5	W +11.5	160.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

URI

W 82-65

+20.5

ORU

W 88-87

−4.5

KSU

L 83-84

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +9.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

URI

W 82-65

−6.5

ORU

W 88-87

+14.5

KSU

L 83-84

+6.5

over 2under 1avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Austin Peay Governors at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Austin Peay

Tulsa

Austin Peay

Tulsa