Long Island University Sharks at Missouri State Bears: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 8:00 PM ETGreat Southern Bank Arena · at Missouri St

#324LIULong Island75▲ winner

Final

Closing lineMOST -4.5✓ LIU covered by 18.5

Closing total145.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Long Island and Missouri St
LIU	This season	MOST
3-3	Record	1-2
2-4	ATS	1-2
3-3	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LIU 68–74 MOST · ✗ MOST (69%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LIU	35	40	75
MOST	40	21	61

1st half: LIU 35, MOST 40 (MOST by 5). The model had MOST by 3.2 and a total of 66.5 (actual 75).

Team stats

LIU		MOST
29-48 60%	Field goals	22-55 40%
6-15 40%	3-pointers	3-22 14%
11-18 61%	Free throws	14-27 52%
33 9 off	Rebounds	27 13 off
10	Assists	7
5	Steals	8
6	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	10
16	Fouls	15
32	Points in paint	34
4	Fast-break points	7

Players

LIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Greg Gordon G	37	13	3	2	6-11	0-2
Jomo Goings G	32	9	4	3	3-3	0-0
Jamal Fuller G	32	14	5	0	6-11	2-3
Malachi Davis G	26	18	2	4	6-9	2-4
Shadrak Lasu F	20	8	3	0	3-5	0-0
Bench
Tre'shawn Sheppard G	25	8	10	1	3-3	1-1
Mason Porter-Brown F	21	3	2	0	1-3	1-3
A.J. Neal Jr. G	5	2	0	0	1-2	0-1
Faheim Meran G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Isaiah Miranda, Max Ndlovu-Fraser, Xinyi Li, Gavin Pendergast, Eddie Munyak, Caleb Johnson

MOST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zaxton King G	39	15	2	0	6-13	0-4
Kobi Williams G	36	12	2	0	3-8	1-5
Keith Palek III F	34	13	3	2	5-13	1-5
Trey Williams Jr. G	31	3	1	2	1-6	1-5
Michael Osei-Bonsu F	31	10	7	0	4-6	0-0
Bench
Darrion Sutton F	15	6	6	2	2-4	0-1
Tyrique Brooks G	11	2	1	1	1-5	0-2
Cameron Boone F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Antwan Burnett, Ryder Cheesman, Melakih Cunningham, Collin Clark, Amar Kuljuhovic, Logan Epes

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MOST -4.5	MOST -5.6	MOST +1.1	L LIU covered
Total	145.5	141.9	Under 3.6	W Under
Projected score	—	LIU 68.1 · MOST 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MOST -3.2	MOST -5.0
1H total	66.5	75
1H projected score	LIU 31.6 · MOST 34.9	LIU 35 · MOST 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIU WLWLL	2-4	33%	1-4	1-3
MOST LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: LIU away, as underdog; MOST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIU UOOUU	3-3	50%	3-3
MOST OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIUlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
MOSTlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Long Island

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ND	L 67-89	+15.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 156
Nov 6	@IUIN	W 94-90	+4.5	W +8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 11	@AF	W 76-72	-5.5	L −1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsJMU	W 88-79	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 167
Nov 20	@FOR	L 53-69	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 122
Nov 22	@ILL	L 58-98	+34.5	L −5.5	160.5	U 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 67-89

−6.5

IUIN

W 94-90

+8.5

W 76-72

−1.5

JMU

W 88-79

+5.5

FOR

L 53-69

−11.5

ILL

L 58-98

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 67-89

+20.5

IUIN

W 94-90

−1.5

W 76-72

+10.5

JMU

W 88-79

+19.5

FOR

L 53-69

−23.5

ILL

L 58-98

−4.5

over 3under 3avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Missouri St

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsARST	L 85-86	-1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@UTA	L 49-67	+3.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 22	vsRGV	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

−2.5

UTA

L 49-67

−14.5

RGV

W 74-67

+3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

+18.5

UTA

L 49-67

−27.5

RGV

W 74-67

−8.5

over 1under 2avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Long Island University Sharks at Missouri State Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Long Island

Missouri St

Long Island

Missouri St