Milwaukee Panthers at Wright State Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 1, 2:00 PM ETNutter Center · at Wright St · Conference game

#235MILWMilwaukee70final

Final

#180WRSTWright St76▲ winner

Closing lineWRST -3.5✓ WRST covered by 2.5

Closing total147.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Milwaukee and Wright St
MILW	This season	WRST
6-7	Record	5-7
5-8	ATS	8-4
6-7	O/U	5-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MILW 73–78 WRST · ✓ WRST (65%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MILW	28	42	70
WRST	41	35	76

1st half: MILW 28, WRST 41 (WRST by 13). The model had WRST by 2.5 and a total of 70.7 (actual 69).

Team stats

MILW		WRST
29-65 45%	Field goals	25-58 43%
5-14 36%	3-pointers	5-16 31%
7-11 64%	Free throws	21-25 84%
33 11 off	Rebounds	41 13 off
10	Assists	10
8	Steals	4
0	Blocks	7
6	Turnovers	8
21	Fouls	13
44	Points in paint	38
13	Fast-break points	2

Players

MILW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Danilo Jovanovich F	37	15	10	2	7-12	0-0
Isaiah Dorceus G	30	13	1	3	6-11	1-3
Josh Dixon G	25	9	2	4	3-13	0-2
Aaron Franklin G	21	0	5	0	0-2	0-0
Faizon Fields F	18	7	2	0	3-3	0-0
Bench
Chandler Jackson F	23	0	2	1	0-2	0-0
Amar Augillard G	20	12	1	0	4-13	3-8
Tate Mackenzie F	14	8	2	0	4-5	0-0
Esyah Pippa-White G	6	4	2	0	1-2	1-1
Sekou Konneh F	6	2	1	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Austin Villarreal, Seth Hubbard, Stevie Elam, Ned Renfree, John Lovelace Jr., Simeon Murchison

WRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dominic Pangonis G	34	13	7	1	4-10	2-4
Solomon Callaghan G	34	11	5	3	3-8	1-6
Kellen Pickett F	31	11	10	0	5-7	1-2
TJ Burch G	28	15	4	3	6-15	0-1
Michael Imariagbe F	26	17	4	1	4-10	0-0
Bench
Logan Woods G	22	5	2	0	1-3	1-3
Andrea Holden G	14	2	2	1	1-4	0-0
Sam Alamutu G	11	2	2	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Alex Bruskotter, Ayden Davis, Bryan Etumnu, PJ Douglas, Isaiah Williams, Michael Cooper

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WRST -3.5	WRST -4.4	WRST +0.9	W WRST covered
Total	147.5	151.0	Over 3.5	L Under
Projected score	—	MILW 73.3 · WRST 77.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WRST -2.5	WRST -13.0
1H total	70.7	69
1H projected score	MILW 34.1 · WRST 36.6	MILW 28 · WRST 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MILW LWWWL	5-8	38%	2-5	2-4
WRST WWLLW	8-4	67%	2-3	3-2

Venue/role: MILW away, as underdog; WRST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MILW UOUUU	6-7	46%	6-7
WRST OOOUO	5-7	42%	5-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILW	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
WRST	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

MILW 5–4 WRSTMILW leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · MILW has won the last 2 meetings · MILW 6-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 14, 2024-25	WRST 80 @ MILW 88	MILW -6.5	MILW W
Jan 22, 2024-25	MILW 95 @ WRST 79	WRST -2.5	MILW W
Jan 20, 2023-24	MILW 81 @ WRST 95	WRST -8.5	WRST W
Dec 31, 2023-24	WRST 83 @ MILW 91	MILW +3.5	MILW W
Mar 2, 2022-23	WRST 70 @ MILW 87	MILW +1.5	MILW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Milwaukee

13 games played

Straight up

6-7

46% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-7

46% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-746%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-838%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-746%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

over 6under 7avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wright St

12 games played

Straight up

5-7

42% wins

Against the spread

8-4

67% covers · avg +4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-7

42% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-742%

L L W L W L L W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-467%

W L W W W L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-742%

U U U U U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@CAL	L 67-77	+14.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 11	vsTOL	L 71-81	-5.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsRAD	W 92-59	+6.5	W +39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsKENT	L 72-76	+4.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 25	@STET	W 79-62	-9.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	@BTLR	L 69-94	+14.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 163
Dec 3	@YSU	L 68-69	+3.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 7	vsGB	W 86-58	-6.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 144
Dec 13	@MRSH	L 74-76	+3.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 150
Dec 16	vsM-OH	L 76-83	+1.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 22	vsEMU	W 70-64	-10.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 29	vsOAK	W 88-73	-3.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

+4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−15.5

RAD

W 92-59

+39.5

KENT

L 72-76

+0.5

STET

W 79-62

+7.5

BTLR

L 69-94

−10.5

YSU

L 68-69

+2.5

W 86-58

+21.5

MRSH

L 74-76

+1.5

M-OH

L 76-83

−5.5

EMU

W 70-64

−4.5

OAK

W 88-73

+11.5

covered 8didn’t cover 4avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 67-77

−4.5

TOL

L 71-81

−7.5

RAD

W 92-59

−5.5

KENT

L 72-76

−9.5

STET

W 79-62

−6.5

BTLR

L 69-94

+12.5

YSU

L 68-69

−7.5

W 86-58

+1.5

MRSH

L 74-76

+0.5

M-OH

L 76-83

+9.5

EMU

W 70-64

−8.5

OAK

W 88-73

+1.5

over 5under 7avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Milwaukee Panthers at Wright State Raiders

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Milwaukee

Wright St

Milwaukee

Wright St