Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Milwaukee Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 29, 8:00 PM ETUW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · at Milwaukee · Conference game

#249PFWPurdue FW55final

Final

#235MILWMilwaukee77▲ winner

Closing lineMILW -3.5✓ MILW covered by 18.5

Closing total156.5Under by 24.5

Season records: Purdue FW and Milwaukee
PFW	This season	MILW
5-6	Record	5-6
5-6	ATS	4-7
7-4	O/U	6-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PFW 79–81 MILW · ✓ MILW (58%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PFW	16	39	55
MILW	44	33	77

1st half: PFW 16, MILW 44 (MILW by 28). The model had MILW by 1.2 and a total of 74.9 (actual 60).

Team stats

PFW		MILW
21-58 36%	Field goals	28-63 44%
7-32 22%	3-pointers	9-25 36%
6-10 60%	Free throws	12-15 80%
20 4 off	Rebounds	53 19 off
12	Assists	16
10	Steals	6
6	Blocks	4
9	Turnovers	16
13	Fouls	15
28	Points in paint	34
13	Fast-break points	12

Players

PFW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Corey Hadnot II G	34	14	3	4	5-17	3-10
Mikale Stevenson G	33	18	5	3	7-14	1-4
Maximus Nelson F	31	6	0	0	2-7	2-7
DeAndre Craig Jr. G	29	13	3	3	5-11	1-6
Darius Duffy F	21	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Chris Morgan G	18	2	2	2	1-4	0-2
Deangelo Elisee F	14	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Yuval Levin F	12	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
EJ Mosley G	5	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Mason Shrout G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Danny Kelly, Solomon Richard, Quentin Morgan, Ja'Corey Lipkins, Ebrahim Kaba

MILW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aaron Franklin G	29	13	13	1	6-12	1-2
Isaiah Dorceus G	27	9	2	7	3-5	2-4
Danilo Jovanovich F	24	9	5	2	4-9	1-1
Faizon Fields F	23	6	7	1	2-3	0-0
Josh Dixon G	20	4	1	2	1-7	0-2
Bench
Chandler Jackson F	21	11	4	1	3-5	2-4
Amar Augillard G	18	12	2	0	4-9	2-6
Sekou Konneh F	18	10	9	0	4-6	0-0
Esyah Pippa-White G	15	3	3	2	1-5	1-4
Simeon Murchison F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Austin Villarreal G	2	0	2	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Tate Mackenzie, Ned Renfree, Stevie Elam, Seth Hubbard, John Lovelace Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MILW -3.5	MILW -2.2	PFW +1.3	L MILW covered
Total	156.5	160.1	Over 3.6	L Under
Projected score	—	PFW 78.9 · MILW 81.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MILW -1.2	MILW -28.0
1H total	74.9	60
1H projected score	PFW 36.9 · MILW 38.1	PFW 16 · MILW 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PFW LWWLW	5-6	45%	2-5	2-4
MILW LLLWW	4-7	36%	2-3	2-4

Venue/role: PFW away, as underdog; MILW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PFW OOUOU	7-4	64%	5-6
MILW OUUOU	6-5	55%	5-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PFW	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MILW	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

PFW 4–4 MILWSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · PFW has won the last 2 meetings · PFW 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 2, 2024-25	PFW 81 @ MILW 79	MILW -4.5	PFW W
Jan 8, 2024-25	MILW 73 @ PFW 78	PFW -2.5	PFW W
Feb 25, 2023-24	PFW 88 @ MILW 96	MILW -1.5	MILW W
Feb 1, 2023-24	MILW 68 @ PFW 65	PFW -3.5	MILW W
Feb 23, 2022-23	PFW 94 @ MILW 96	MILW -3.5	PFW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Purdue FW

11 games played

Straight up

5-6

45% wins

Against the spread

5-6

45% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-4

64% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-645%

L L L L L W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-645%

L L L W L W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-464%

O O U O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GCU	L 71-90	+14.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 161
Nov 7	@OSU	L 68-94	+24.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 162
Nov 12	@WMU	L 71-83	-3.5	L −15.5	161.5	U 154
Nov 18	@UTAH	L 77-85	+13.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 162
Nov 21	@SLU	L 60-91	+19.5	L −11.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 25	vsCHST	W 90-77	-12.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 3	@OAK	L 92-101	+4.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 193
Dec 6	vsNKU	W 79-77	-1.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsEMU	W 80-65	-3.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 145
Dec 14	vsDETM	W 81-77	-9.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 158
Dec 21	@ND	W 72-69	+11.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

−4.5

OSU

L 68-94

−1.5

WMU

L 71-83

−15.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+5.5

SLU

L 60-91

−11.5

CHST

W 90-77

+0.5

OAK

L 92-101

−4.5

NKU

W 79-77

+0.5

EMU

W 80-65

+11.5

DETM

W 81-77

−5.5

W 72-69

+14.5

covered 5didn’t cover 6avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GCU

L 71-90

+5.5

OSU

L 68-94

+2.5

WMU

L 71-83

−7.5

UTAH

L 77-85

+0.5

SLU

L 60-91

−15.5

CHST

W 90-77

+17.5

OAK

L 92-101

+30.5

NKU

W 79-77

+2.5

EMU

W 80-65

−2.5

DETM

W 81-77

+4.5

W 72-69

−8.5

over 7under 4avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Milwaukee

11 games played

Straight up

5-6

45% wins

Against the spread

4-7

36% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-5

55% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-645%

W L W L L L L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-736%

L L W L W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-555%

O O O O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 7avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

over 6under 5avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons at Milwaukee Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Purdue FW

Milwaukee

Purdue FW

Milwaukee