Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame
Closing line
ND -11.5✓ PFW covered by 14.5
ND -11.5✓ PFW covered by 14.5Closing total149.5Under by 8.5
 PFW | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | Record | 9-3 |
| 4-6 | ATS | 8-4 |
| 7-3 | O/U | 7-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PFW 68–84 ND · ✗ ND (91%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PFW | 27 | 45 | 72 |
| ND | 24 | 45 | 69 |
1st half: PFW 27, ND 24 (PFW by 3). The model had ND by 9.2 and a total of 71.0 (actual 51).
Team stats
| PFW | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-59 41% | Field goals | 24-60 40% |
| 11-35 31% | 3-pointers | 7-27 26% |
| 13-17 76% | Free throws | 14-17 82% |
| 28 5 off | Rebounds | 43 14 off |
| 7 | Assists | 11 |
| 7 | Steals | 5 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| PFW | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Hadnot II G | 36 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 10-16 | 4-7 |
| DeAndre Craig Jr. G | 32 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5-13 | 1-7 |
| Mikale Stevenson G | 31 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 6-13 | 3-7 |
| Maximus Nelson F | 26 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Darius Duffy F | 25 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Deangelo Elisee F | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Chris Morgan G | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Ebrahim Kaba G | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| EJ Mosley G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Yuval Levin F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Quentin Morgan, Solomon Richard, Danny Kelly, Ja'Corey Lipkins, Mason Shrout
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 35 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 4-11 | 3-8 |
| Carson Towt F | 27 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Haralson G | 27 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 6-13 | 0-0 |
| Cole Certa G | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-7 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 25 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Logan Imes G | 28 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-6 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Brady Koehler F | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Kebba Njie F | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ryder Frost F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Matthew MacLellan F | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Mark Zackery IV, Luke Devine, Tommy Ahneman, Markus Burton, Brady Stevens
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenND -14.5
3 → PFW
CloseND -11.5
3 pts toward PFW
Total
Open149.5
no move
Close149.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
PFW +600 · ND -900
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ND -14.5 · closed ND -11.5 · moved 3 toward PFWmodel ND -15.5
model ND -15.5
Opened 149.5 · unchangedmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ND -11.5 | ND -15.6 | ND +4.1 | L PFW covered |
| Total | 149.5 | 151.7 | Over 2.2 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | PFW 68.1 · ND 83.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ND -9.2 | PFW -3.0 |
| 1H total | 71.0 | 51 |
| 1H projected score | PFW 30.9 · ND 40.1 | PFW 27 · ND 24 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PFW | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| ND | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Purdue FW
10 games played
Straight up
4-6
40% wins
Against the spread
4-6
40% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-3
70% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ GCU | L 71-90 | +14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 7 | @ OSU | L 68-94 | +24.5 | L −1.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 12 | @ WMU | L 71-83 | -3.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | @ UTAH | L 77-85 | +13.5 | W +5.5 | 161.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 21 | @ SLU | L 60-91 | +19.5 | L −11.5 | 166.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 25 | vs CHST | W 90-77 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @ OAK | L 92-101 | +4.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 6 | vs NKU | W 79-77 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 10 | vs EMU | W 80-65 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 14 | vs DETM | W 81-77 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@GCU
GCUL 71-90
−4.5
7
@OSU
OSUL 68-94
−1.5
12
@WMU
WMUL 71-83
−15.5
18
@UTAH
UTAHL 77-85
+5.5
21
@SLU
SLUL 60-91
−11.5
25
vsCHST
CHSTW 90-77
+0.5
3
@OAK
OAKL 92-101
−4.5
6
vsNKU
NKUW 79-77
+0.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 80-65
+11.5
14
vsDETM
DETMW 81-77
−5.5
covered 4didn’t cover 6avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@GCU
GCUL 71-90
+5.5
7
@OSU
OSUL 68-94
+2.5
12
@WMU
WMUL 71-83
−7.5
18
@UTAH
UTAHL 77-85
+0.5
21
@SLU
SLUL 60-91
−15.5
25
vsCHST
CHSTW 90-77
+17.5
3
@OAK
OAKL 92-101
+30.5
6
vsNKU
NKUW 79-77
+2.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 80-65
−2.5
14
vsDETM
DETMW 81-77
+4.5
over 7under 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
12 games played
Straight up
9-3
75% wins
Against the spread
8-4
67% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-5
58% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vsDETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
covered 8didn’t cover 4avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
over 7under 5avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Purdue FW
4-6 overall · 2-1 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Detroit Mercy81–77
- Wvs E Michigan80–65
- Wvs N Kentucky79–77
- L@ Oakland92–101
- Wvs Chicago St90–77
A week or more of rest.
Notre Dame
9-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Evansville82–58
- Wvs Idaho80–65
- W@ TCU87–85
- Wvs Missouri76–71
- Lvs Houston56–66
A week or more of rest.