Cal State Fullerton Titans at Oklahoma State Cowboys: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 21, 2:00 PM ETGallagher-Iba Arena · at Oklahoma St

#312CSUFFullerton89final

Final

#45OKSTOklahoma St94▲ winner

Closing lineOKST -19.5✓ CSUF covered by 14.5

Closing total176.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Fullerton and Oklahoma St
CSUF	This season	OKST
3-7	Record	10-1
5-4	ATS	5-6
6-3	O/U	7-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CSUF 76–97 OKST · ✓ OKST (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CSUF	34	55	89
OKST	50	44	94

1st half: CSUF 34, OKST 50 (OKST by 16). The model had OKST by 12.8 and a total of 81.0 (actual 84).

Team stats

CSUF		OKST
30-59 51%	Field goals	33-65 51%
12-26 46%	3-pointers	14-30 47%
17-34 50%	Free throws	14-21 67%
35 11 off	Rebounds	35 11 off
19	Assists	16
8	Steals	9
1	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	17
20	Fouls	21
34	Points in paint	32
30	Fast-break points	14

Players

CSUF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Williams G	36	18	5	4	6-10	6-10
Joshua Ward G	35	14	4	6	3-7	3-3
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro G	35	20	2	4	9-17	1-6
Bryce Cofield G	24	8	4	1	3-7	0-1
Kendrick De Luna F	14	6	0	1	3-5	0-0
Bench
Landon Seaman F	25	19	13	2	4-8	2-3
Davis White G	18	2	1	1	1-2	0-1
Jaden Henderson G	13	2	3	0	1-3	0-2

Did not play: Bailey Nunn, Kidus Tilahun, KJ Garris Jr., Yesan Warren, Karan Kolappa, Cam Smith, Nicholas Khatchikian, Matthew Quinlan, Ben Winker

OKST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Coleman G	37	20	5	4	7-13	2-7
Vyctorius Miller G	25	20	6	0	6-9	4-6
Anthony Roy G	24	22	4	1	6-13	6-10
Jaylen Curry G	23	4	2	7	2-4	0-0
Andrija Vukovic F	16	2	7	1	1-4	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Coleman G	29	16	5	1	7-11	0-0
Daniel Guetta G	14	4	0	1	2-3	0-1
Mekhi Ragland F	12	0	3	1	0-2	0-1
Benjamin Ahmed F	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Ryan Crotty G	7	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Kirk Cole G	5	3	0	0	1-3	1-3

Did not play: Robert Jennings II, Kanye Clary, Lefteris Mantzoukas, Parsa Fallah

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OKST -19.5	OKST -21.6	OKST +2.1	L CSUF covered
Total	176.5	173.2	Under 3.3	L Over
Projected score	—	CSUF 75.8 · OKST 97.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OKST -12.8	OKST -16.0
1H total	81.0	84
1H projected score	CSUF 34.1 · OKST 46.9	CSUF 34 · OKST 50

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUF WWWLW	5-4	56%	2-2	4-3
OKST WLWLL	5-6	45%	3-5	3-5

Venue/role: CSUF away, as underdog; OKST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUF OOUOO	6-3	67%	3-7
OKST OOOUO	7-4	64%	10-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUF	3-7 30%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
OKST	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fullerton

10 games played

Straight up

3-7

30% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-3

67% overs · avg +10.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-730%

L L L L W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-456%

W L L L W W W L–W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-367%

O U U O O O U O–O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WYO	L 82-92	+15.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 10	@CAL	L 65-93	+22.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 15	vsPAC	L 73-85	+6.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 21	@PORT	L 85-103	+6.5	L −11.5	164.5	O 188
Nov 22	vsSTMN	W 88-80	+11.5	W +19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	vsUNCO	L 93-97	+8.5	W +4.5	164.5	O 190
Nov 29	vsPEPP	W 83-69	-1.5	W +12.5	161.5	U 152
Dec 4	vsCP	L 91-94	-1.5	L −4.5	177.5	O 185
Dec 6	@HAW	L 59-69	—	—	—	—
Dec 13	@DEN	W 105-86	+3.5	W +22.5	165.5	O 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+5.5

CAL

L 65-93

−5.5

PAC

L 73-85

−5.5

PORT

L 85-103

−11.5

STMN

W 88-80

+19.5

UNCO

L 93-97

+4.5

PEPP

W 83-69

+12.5

L 91-94

−4.5

DEN

W 105-86

+22.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+19.5

CAL

L 65-93

−4.5

PAC

L 73-85

−1.5

PORT

L 85-103

+23.5

STMN

W 88-80

+5.5

UNCO

L 93-97

+25.5

PEPP

W 83-69

−9.5

L 91-94

+7.5

DEN

W 105-86

+25.5

over 6under 3avg +10.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma St

11 games played

Straight up

10-1

91% wins

Against the spread

5-6

45% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-4

64% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-191%

W W W W W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-645%

W W L L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-464%

O U U U O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsORU	W 95-71	-20.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 166
Nov 9	vsTA&M	W 87-63	+2.5	W +26.5	174.5	U 150
Nov 12	vsPV	W 94-67	-30.5	L −3.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 16	vsAMCC	W 85-69	-20.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 19	vsUSF	W 103-95	-3.5	W +4.5	177.5	O 198
Nov 22	vsNICH	W 95-81	-23.5	L −9.5	155.5	O 176
Nov 27	@NU	W 86-81	+2.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 167
Dec 2	vsSHSU	W 93-83	-13.5	L −3.5	169.5	O 176
Dec 6	vsGCU	W 84-78	-1.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 13	vsOU	L 76-85	+2.5	L −6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 18	vsKC	W 91-79	-27.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORU

W 95-71

+3.5

TA&M

W 87-63

+26.5

W 94-67

−3.5

AMCC

W 85-69

−4.5

USF

W 103-95

+4.5

NICH

W 95-81

−9.5

W 86-81

+7.5

SHSU

W 93-83

−3.5

GCU

W 84-78

+4.5

L 76-85

−6.5

W 91-79

−15.5

covered 5didn’t cover 6avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORU

W 95-71

+0.5

TA&M

W 87-63

−24.5

W 94-67

−7.5

AMCC

W 85-69

−0.5

USF

W 103-95

+20.5

NICH

W 95-81

+20.5

W 86-81

+7.5

SHSU

W 93-83

+6.5

GCU

W 84-78

+6.5

L 76-85

−8.5

W 91-79

+8.5

over 7under 4avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cal State Fullerton Titans at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Fullerton

Oklahoma St

Fullerton

Oklahoma St