Cal Poly Mustangs at Cal State Fullerton Titans: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 4, 10:00 PM ETTitan Gym · at Fullerton · Conference game

#164CPCal Poly94▲ winner

Final

#312CSUFFullerton91final

Closing lineCSUF -1.5✓ CP covered by 4.5

Closing total177.5Over by 7.5

Season records: Cal Poly and Fullerton
CP	This season	CSUF
2-5	Record	2-5
3-4	ATS	4-3
4-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CP 86–85 CSUF · ✓ CP (52%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CP	43	51	94
CSUF	44	47	91

1st half: CP 43, CSUF 44 (CSUF by 1). The model had CP by 0.6 and a total of 79.8 (actual 87).

Team stats

CP		CSUF
27-55 49%	Field goals	31-66 47%
18-37 49%	3-pointers	9-23 39%
22-30 73%	Free throws	20-29 69%
33 5 off	Rebounds	36 12 off
15	Assists	12
8	Steals	8
3	Blocks	1
22	Turnovers	17
28	Fouls	26
18	Points in paint	42
14	Fast-break points	17

Players

CP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Peter Bandelj G	30	37	5	3	11-13	9-10
Cayden Ward G	29	11	3	1	3-9	2-5
Hamad Mousa G	27	27	7	2	8-13	4-8
Luka Tarlac G	24	1	2	6	0-1	0-0
Austin Goode F	13	0	3	0	0-3	0-3
Bench
Guzman Vasilic G	28	15	4	0	5-10	3-8
Jake Davis G	15	2	4	2	0-3	0-2
Ali Assran F	12	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Kieran Elliott G	9	1	1	0	0-1	0-0
Troy Plumtree F	9	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Aaron Price Jr. PF	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Jackson Mosley, Braden Freeman, Jess Esso Essis, Jason Scott, Eric Brown

CSUF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joshua Ward G	33	10	6	3	3-9	1-2
Christian Williams G	27	7	4	1	2-6	2-4
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro G	27	11	3	3	4-12	1-4
Kendrick De Luna F	17	2	2	0	0-1	0-0
Bryce Cofield G	9	6	1	0	2-5	0-1
Bench
KJ Garris Jr. G	25	19	6	1	6-9	1-3
Jaden Henderson G	24	21	2	3	8-13	4-6
Landon Seaman F	22	15	3	0	6-8	0-0
Davis White G	16	0	3	1	0-3	0-3

Did not play: Ben Winker, Matthew Quinlan, Nicholas Khatchikian, Cam Smith, Karan Kolappa, Yesan Warren, Bailey Nunn, Kidus Tilahun

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CSUF -1.5	CP -0.7	CP +2.2	W CP covered
Total	177.5	170.7	Under 6.8	L Over
Projected score	—	CP 85.7 · CSUF 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CP -0.6	CSUF -1.0
1H total	79.8	87
1H projected score	CP 40.2 · CSUF 39.6	CP 43 · CSUF 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CP WLWLL	3-4	43%	3-3	3-3
CSUF LLWWW	4-3	57%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: CP away, as underdog; CSUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CP OOOOU	4-3	57%	2-5
CSUF UOOOU	4-3	57%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CPlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
CSUFlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

CP 2–5 CSUFCSUF leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · CP has won the last 2 meetings · CP 4-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2024-25	CSUF 61 @ CP 100	CP -14.5	CP W
Feb 13, 2024-25	CP 98 @ CSUF 83	CSUF +5.5	CP W
Feb 22, 2023-24	CP 50 @ CSUF 68	CSUF -9.5	CSUF W
Jan 25, 2023-24	CSUF 54 @ CP 51	CP +5.5	CP W
Feb 18, 2022-23	CP 62 @ CSUF 83	CSUF -10.5	CSUF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cal Poly

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USC	L 64-94	+24.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 158
Nov 8	@SEA	W 73-71	+10.5	W +12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	@CSU	L 79-93	+18.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 172
Nov 14	@MONT	L 82-90	+7.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 172
Nov 20	@UTAH	W 92-85	+14.5	W +21.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 24	@NAU	L 87-93	-1.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsSEMO	L 68-84	+1.5	L −14.5	170.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

+12.5

CSU

L 79-93

+4.5

MONT

L 82-90

−0.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+21.5

NAU

L 87-93

−7.5

SEMO

L 68-84

−14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 64-94

−5.5

SEA

W 73-71

−20.5

CSU

L 79-93

+6.5

MONT

L 82-90

+3.5

UTAH

W 92-85

+9.5

NAU

L 87-93

+15.5

SEMO

L 68-84

−18.5

over 4under 3avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fullerton

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +8.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

O U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WYO	L 82-92	+15.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 10	@CAL	L 65-93	+22.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 15	vsPAC	L 73-85	+6.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 21	@PORT	L 85-103	+6.5	L −11.5	164.5	O 188
Nov 22	vsSTMN	W 88-80	+11.5	W +19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	vsUNCO	L 93-97	+8.5	W +4.5	164.5	O 190
Nov 29	vsPEPP	W 83-69	-1.5	W +12.5	161.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+5.5

CAL

L 65-93

−5.5

PAC

L 73-85

−5.5

PORT

L 85-103

−11.5

STMN

W 88-80

+19.5

UNCO

L 93-97

+4.5

PEPP

W 83-69

+12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+19.5

CAL

L 65-93

−4.5

PAC

L 73-85

−1.5

PORT

L 85-103

+23.5

STMN

W 88-80

+5.5

UNCO

L 93-97

+25.5

PEPP

W 83-69

−9.5

over 4under 3avg +8.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cal Poly Mustangs at Cal State Fullerton Titans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Cal Poly

Fullerton

Cal Poly

Fullerton