UC Riverside Highlanders at UC Irvine Anteaters: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 4, 10:00 PM ETBren Events Center · at UC Irvine · Conference game

Final

#149UCIUC Irvine73▲ winner

Closing lineUCI -13.5✓ UCR covered by 0.5

Closing total142.5Under by 9.5

Season records: UC Riverside and UC Irvine
UCR	This season	UCI
3-4	Record	3-4
4-3	ATS	2-5
5-2	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UCR 66–77 UCI · ✓ UCI (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UCR	26	34	60
UCI	37	36	73

1st half: UCR 26, UCI 37 (UCI by 11). The model had UCI by 6.8 and a total of 66.9 (actual 63).

Team stats

UCR		UCI
18-59 31%	Field goals	23-52 44%
5-20 25%	3-pointers	10-18 56%
19-28 68%	Free throws	17-26 65%
41 14 off	Rebounds	38 7 off
11	Assists	19
5	Steals	4
5	Blocks	6
10	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	22
26	Points in paint	22
10	Fast-break points	0

Players

UCR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Osiris Grady F	38	12	5	2	5-14	0-3
Marqui Worthy Jr. G	35	26	8	1	6-13	3-6
De'Undrae Perteete Jr. G	34	8	5	2	3-6	1-2
Jailen Daniel-Dalton F	23	2	5	1	0-4	0-2
BJ Kolly F	15	0	6	0	0-7	0-2
Bench
Andrew Henderson G	37	10	6	1	3-11	1-4
Dylan Godfrey F	8	2	0	1	1-3	0-1
Tyler Jones G	8	0	3	2	0-0	0-0
Ben Waller G	2	0	0	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Gavin Haase, Denzel Hines, Amaury McKinney, EJ Spillman, Parker Strauss, Daniel Tobiloba

UCI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tama Isaac G	30	3	3	7	1-6	1-3
Jurian Dixon G	29	16	2	1	6-9	4-5
Kyle Evans F	25	19	8	1	7-11	1-1
Derin Saran G	23	2	1	4	0-5	0-2
Elijah Chol F	18	5	6	1	0-3	0-1
Bench
Andre Henry G	23	10	4	2	3-4	1-1
Jovan Jester Jr. G	19	13	4	1	4-5	2-3
Harrison Carrington F	15	5	1	1	2-5	1-1
Akiva McBirney-Griffin F	14	0	3	0	0-4	0-1
Nes Emeneke C	4	0	2	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Langston Redfield, Mason Hodges, Luke Isaak, Josh Palmer, Bryce Goldman, Tishan Ahir, Torian Lee, Ben Egbo

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCI -13.5	UCI -11.5	UCR +2.0	W UCR covered
Total	142.5	142.8	Over 0.3	L Under
Projected score	—	UCR 65.6 · UCI 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCI -6.8	UCI -11.0
1H total	66.9	63
1H projected score	UCR 30 · UCI 36.8	UCR 26 · UCI 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCR LLWWL	4-3	57%	3-2	3-2
UCI LLLWW	2-5	29%	0-3	2-4

Venue/role: UCR away, as underdog; UCI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCR OUOOO	5-2	71%	3-4
UCI OOUUU	2-5	29%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCRlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	5-2 71%
UCIlast 7	3-4 43%	2-5 29%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

UCR 2–6 UCIUCI leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · UCR 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 23, 2024-25	UCI 80 @ UCR 84	UCR +6.5	UCR W
Jan 4, 2024-25	UCR 57 @ UCI 81	UCI -8.5	UCI W
Feb 10, 2023-24	UCI 78 @ UCR 88	UCR +8.5	UCR W
Dec 28, 2023-24	UCR 66 @ UCI 73	UCI -12.5	UCR W
Mar 2, 2022-23	UCI 75 @ UCR 65	UCR -1.5	UCI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UC Riverside

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UND	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 11	@UNM	L 68-82	+19.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	vsUND	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 18	@CBU	L 57-80	+12.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	@USD	W 85-71	+7.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsGRAM	W 83-74	-3.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 157
Nov 29	@UTU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 74-70

+5.5

UNM

L 68-82

+5.5

UND

L 74-76

−5.5

CBU

L 57-80

−10.5

USD

W 85-71

+21.5

GRAM

W 83-74

+5.5

UTU

L 69-77

−2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 74-70

−2.5

UNM

L 68-82

+8.5

UND

L 74-76

+1.5

CBU

L 57-80

−5.5

USD

W 85-71

+3.5

GRAM

W 83-74

+12.5

UTU

L 69-77

+0.5

over 5under 2avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Irvine

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −12.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L W L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCBU	L 61-69	-8.5	L −16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsWEB	W 79-70	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Nov 19	@UVU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 22	vsUNI	L 69-70	-2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsNMSU	L 45-57	-2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 102
Nov 26	vsSDST	W 64-52	-2.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 116
Nov 30	@SJSU	W 72-63	-3.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−16.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

−4.5

UNI

L 69-70

−3.5

NMSU

L 45-57

−14.5

SDST

W 64-52

+9.5

SJSU

W 72-63

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−17.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

+1.5

UNI

L 69-70

+0.5

NMSU

L 45-57

−37.5

SDST

W 64-52

−28.5

SJSU

W 72-63

−4.5

over 2under 5avg −12.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UC Riverside @ UC Irvine

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UC Riverside

UC Irvine

UC Riverside

UC Irvine