Grambling Tigers at UC Riverside Highlanders: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 3:00 PM ETSRC Arena · at UC Riverside

#338GRAMGrambling74final

Final

#281UCRUC Riverside83▲ winner

Closing lineUCR -3.5✓ UCR covered by 5.5

Closing total144.5Over by 12.5

Season records: Grambling and UC Riverside
GRAM	This season	UCR
2-3	Record	2-3
3-2	ATS	3-2
1-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GRAM 69–75 UCR · ✓ UCR (70%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GRAM	36	38	74
UCR	30	53	83

1st half: GRAM 36, UCR 30 (GRAM by 6). The model had UCR by 3.5 and a total of 67.3 (actual 66).

Team stats

GRAM		UCR
23-53 43%	Field goals	26-47 55%
5-17 29%	3-pointers	7-16 44%
23-33 70%	Free throws	24-31 77%
27 8 off	Rebounds	33 6 off
12	Assists	13
9	Steals	3
2	Blocks	5
8	Turnovers	14
25	Fouls	20
24	Points in paint	32
19	Fast-break points	11

Players

GRAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Randarius Jones C	34	12	6	4	4-9	0-0
Roderick Coffee III F	34	7	1	5	1-4	0-1
Antonio Munoz F	29	16	2	2	6-11	0-1
Jimel Lane F	21	13	5	0	4-6	0-1
Derrius Ward G	14	0	0	0	0-5	0-3
Bench
Jamil Muttilib G	34	6	8	1	2-10	1-7
Rickey Ballard F	24	20	3	0	6-6	4-4
P.J. Edwards G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Devyn Franklin G	4	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Richard Amaefule F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Saliou Seye, Nazar Mahmoud, Chancellor Perkins, Mekhi Fitts

UCR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Osiris Grady F	35	12	9	3	4-8	0-1
Marqui Worthy Jr. G	34	10	2	3	2-5	1-2
De'Undrae Perteete Jr. G	33	19	3	2	5-7	2-2
Jailen Daniel-Dalton F	29	10	9	2	4-7	0-1
BJ Kolly F	20	0	2	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
Andrew Henderson G	37	32	6	1	11-16	4-8
Dylan Godfrey F	7	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Tyler Jones G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Daniel Tobiloba, Denzel Hines, EJ Spillman, Ben Waller, Amaury McKinney, Gavin Haase, Parker Strauss

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCR -3.5	UCR -6.1	UCR +2.6	W UCR covered
Total	144.5	143.7	Under 0.8	L Over
Projected score	—	GRAM 68.8 · UCR 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCR -3.5	GRAM -6.0
1H total	67.3	66
1H projected score	GRAM 31.9 · UCR 35.4	GRAM 36 · UCR 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GRAM LWWLW	3-2	60%	2-2	2-2
UCR WWLLW	3-2	60%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: GRAM away, as underdog; UCR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GRAM OUUUU	1-4	20%	2-3
UCR UOOUO	3-2	60%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GRAMlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
UCRlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grambling

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@ISU	L 62-102	+33.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 164
Nov 9	@HOW	W 73-70	+4.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 13	vsUSM	W 75-70	-2.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	@USD	L 68-78	+6.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 146
Nov 21	@CBU	L 59-72	+14.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ISU

L 62-102

−6.5

HOW

W 73-70

+7.5

USM

W 75-70

+2.5

USD

L 68-78

−3.5

CBU

L 59-72

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ISU

L 62-102

+19.5

HOW

W 73-70

−9.5

USM

W 75-70

−3.5

USD

L 68-78

−3.5

CBU

L 59-72

−13.5

over 1under 4avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Riverside

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UND	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 11	@UNM	L 68-82	+19.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	vsUND	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 18	@CBU	L 57-80	+12.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	@USD	W 85-71	+7.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 74-70

+5.5

UNM

L 68-82

+5.5

UND

L 74-76

−5.5

CBU

L 57-80

−10.5

USD

W 85-71

+21.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 74-70

−2.5

UNM

L 68-82

+8.5

UND

L 74-76

+1.5

CBU

L 57-80

−5.5

USD

W 85-71

+3.5

over 3under 2avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grambling Tigers at UC Riverside Highlanders

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Grambling

UC Riverside

Grambling

UC Riverside