Grambling Tigers at California Baptist Lancers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 10:00 PM ETDale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center · at CA Baptist

#338GRAMGrambling59final

Final

#203CBUCA Baptist72▲ winner

Closing lineCBU -14.5✓ GRAM covered by 1.5

Closing total144.5Under by 13.5

Season records: Grambling and CA Baptist
GRAM	This season	CBU
2-2	Record	4-0
2-2	ATS	2-2
1-3	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GRAM 64–77 CBU · ✓ CBU (89%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GRAM	22	37	59
CBU	40	32	72

1st half: GRAM 22, CBU 40 (CBU by 18). The model had CBU by 8.2 and a total of 66.0 (actual 62).

Team stats

GRAM		CBU
17-45 38%	Field goals	27-46 59%
4-18 22%	3-pointers	6-14 43%
21-23 91%	Free throws	12-17 71%
20 5 off	Rebounds	32 8 off
3	Assists	14
7	Steals	11
0	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	18
16	Fouls	22
20	Points in paint	42
12	Fast-break points	14

Players

GRAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Antonio Munoz F	27	12	1	0	3-8	0-1
Derrius Ward G	26	20	0	1	7-10	2-4
Jimel Lane F	25	7	7	0	1-8	1-5
Roderick Coffee III F	24	9	1	1	3-5	1-3
Randarius Jones C	22	4	3	0	2-5	0-0
Bench
Jamil Muttilib G	27	2	2	0	0-3	0-2
Rickey Ballard F	12	0	3	1	0-1	0-1
Richard Amaefule F	11	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Devyn Franklin G	10	5	1	0	1-4	0-2
P.J. Edwards G	9	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Mekhi Fitts F	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Chancellor Perkins, Saliou Seye, Nazar Mahmoud

CBU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Martel Williams G	35	17	4	3	6-10	1-1
Jayden Jackson G	32	9	7	4	3-4	3-4
Dominique Daniels Jr. G	27	9	1	3	4-11	1-6
Devon Malcolm G	26	8	3	0	3-5	0-0
Thomas Ndong F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Jonathan Griman F	26	10	6	1	5-5	0-0
Jordan Muller G	22	7	1	2	1-3	1-2
Bradey Henige F	16	6	3	0	3-5	0-0
Monty Bowser G	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Nate Garcia C	4	4	2	1	2-2	0-0

Did not play: Jalen Dollar, Mouhamadou Dioum, Chase Mayo Harmon, Miles Daniels, Rene D'Amelio, OJ Blankson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CBU -14.5	CBU -13.8	GRAM +0.7	W GRAM covered
Total	144.5	140.8	Under 3.7	W Under
Projected score	—	GRAM 63.5 · CBU 77.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CBU -8.2	CBU -18.0
1H total	66.0	62
1H projected score	GRAM 28.9 · CBU 37.1	GRAM 22 · CBU 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GRAM LWWL	2-2	50%	1-2	1-2
CBU LWLW	2-2	50%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: GRAM away, as underdog; CBU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GRAM OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2
CBU OUUU	1-3	25%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GRAMlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
CBUlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grambling

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@ISU	L 62-102	+33.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 164
Nov 9	@HOW	W 73-70	+4.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 13	vsUSM	W 75-70	-2.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	@USD	L 68-78	+6.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ISU

L 62-102

−6.5

HOW

W 73-70

+7.5

USM

W 75-70

+2.5

USD

L 68-78

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ISU

L 62-102

+19.5

HOW

W 73-70

−9.5

USM

W 75-70

−3.5

USD

L 68-78

−3.5

over 1under 3avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

CA Baptist

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUPST	W 87-75	-14.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 7	@UCI	W 69-61	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsWIU	W 69-59	-15.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsUCR	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

−2.5

UCI

W 69-61

+16.5

WIU

W 69-59

−5.5

UCR

W 80-57

+10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

+9.5

UCI

W 69-61

−17.5

WIU

W 69-59

−12.5

UCR

W 80-57

−5.5

over 1under 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grambling @ CA Baptist

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Grambling

CA Baptist

Grambling

CA Baptist