Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Santa Clara Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 10:00 PM ETLeavey Center · at Santa Clara

Final

#106SCUSanta Clara80▲ winner

Closing lineSCU -19.5✓ SCU covered by 17.5

Closing total140.5Under by 17.5

Season records: Louisiana and Santa Clara
UL	This season	SCU
1-4	Record	4-0
2-3	ATS	3-1
2-3	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UL 63–84 SCU · ✓ SCU (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UL	15	28	43
SCU	38	42	80

1st half: UL 15, SCU 38 (SCU by 23). The model had SCU by 12.6 and a total of 69.0 (actual 53).

Team stats

UL		SCU
11-44 25%	Field goals	30-72 42%
1-9 11%	3-pointers	8-34 24%
20-25 80%	Free throws	12-19 63%
30 9 off	Rebounds	45 21 off
4	Assists	20
5	Steals	7
2	Blocks	7
18	Turnovers	8
19	Fouls	21
18	Points in paint	44
15	Fast-break points	19

Players

UL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dorian Finister G	36	16	5	0	6-13	0-2
De'vion Lavergne G	27	2	1	2	0-5	0-2
Joshua Lewis F	22	5	4	2	1-3	0-0
Kyran Ratliff F	13	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Jeremiah Evans F	12	9	0	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Jaxon Olvera G	19	0	3	0	0-7	0-1
Mike Collins G	18	0	1	0	0-3	0-1
Dariyus Woodson F	18	6	5	0	0-4	0-2
Milan Mejia G	15	5	2	0	2-2	1-1
Todd Jones Jr. F	14	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Michael Mouton G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Logan Myers G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Sean Elkinton, Rahman Olajuwon, Christian Landry, Zeke Cook, Karris Bilal, Jamyron Keller

SCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jake Ensminger G	29	7	11	3	3-9	1-6
Elijah Mahi F	27	9	4	2	4-11	1-5
Christian Hammond G	25	19	2	4	7-12	3-6
Brenton Knapper G	19	5	1	2	1-4	0-3
Bukky Oboye C	17	13	5	0	6-9	0-0
Bench
Sash Gavalyugov G	21	0	7	5	0-4	0-2
Allen Graves F	19	11	5	0	3-9	1-2
KJ Cochran G	18	9	1	1	4-7	1-4
Thierry Darlan G	15	0	2	1	0-2	0-2
Francis Chukwudebelu C	8	4	2	2	1-1	0-0
Brendan Yarusso G	2	3	0	0	1-4	1-4

Did not play: Brad Longcor III, Noah Badibanga, Chris Tadjo, Malachi Douyon, Gehrig Normand, Juan Reyna

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SCU -19.5	SCU -21.1	SCU +1.6	W SCU covered
Total	140.5	147.2	Over 6.7	L Under
Projected score	—	UL 63.1 · SCU 84.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SCU -12.6	SCU -23.0
1H total	69.0	53
1H projected score	UL 28.2 · SCU 40.8	UL 15 · SCU 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LWWLL	2-3	40%	0-3	1-3
SCU WWWL	3-1	75%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; SCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UUUOO	2-3	40%	1-4
SCU UUOU	1-3	25%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
SCUlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

over 2under 3avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Clara

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +7.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsMCN	W 79-67	-6.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 10	@XAV	W 87-68	+3.5	W +22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 15	vsNEV	W 98-83	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsIDST	W 64-55	-14.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

+5.5

XAV

W 87-68

+22.5

NEV

W 98-83

+8.5

IDST

W 64-55

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

−5.5

XAV

W 87-68

−0.5

NEV

W 98-83

+36.5

IDST

W 64-55

−22.5

over 1under 3avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Santa Clara Broncos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana

Santa Clara

Louisiana

Santa Clara