Northern Iowa Panthers at UC Irvine Anteaters: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 10:30 PM ETBren Events Center · at UC Irvine

Final

#149UCIUC Irvine69final

Closing lineUCI -2.5✓ UNI covered by 3.5

Closing total138.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Northern Iowa and UC Irvine
UNI	This season	UCI
4-0	Record	1-2
2-2	ATS	0-3
0-4	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNI 68–66 UCI · ✓ UNI (58%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
UNI	35	28	7	70
UCI	25	38	6	69

1st half: UNI 35, UCI 25 (UNI by 10). The model had UNI by 1.5 and a total of 63.0 (actual 60).

Team stats

UNI		UCI
26-72 36%	Field goals	25-59 42%
11-32 34%	3-pointers	3-11 27%
7-10 70%	Free throws	16-26 62%
42 12 off	Rebounds	47 10 off
13	Assists	10
4	Steals	5
3	Blocks	9
8	Turnovers	9
24	Fouls	13
28	Points in paint	38
2	Fast-break points	16

Players

UNI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trey Campbell G	41	19	5	4	7-17	0-5
Max Weisbrod G	39	6	2	3	2-7	2-7
Leon Bond III G	36	6	10	2	2-10	1-2
Will Hornseth F	33	11	3	0	5-9	0-1
Tristan Smith F	16	5	4	2	2-6	1-2
Bench
Ben Schwieger F	24	9	6	0	3-9	3-5
Kyle Pock F	23	14	2	1	5-10	4-7
Ismael Diouf F	8	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
RJ Taylor G	3	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Geon Hutchins G	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Cade Courbat, Levi Valdo, Chase Courbat, Redek Born, Marino Dubravcic, Jalen Wilson, Hunter Jacobson

UCI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jurian Dixon G	37	17	6	0	5-15	1-3
Derin Saran G	36	29	10	4	11-17	1-1
Kyle Evans F	34	10	10	1	5-8	0-1
Tama Isaac G	31	0	3	3	0-5	0-3
Elijah Chol F	18	4	3	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Jovan Jester Jr. G	20	5	6	2	1-3	1-1
Andre Henry G	19	2	2	0	1-6	0-2
Harrison Carrington F	13	2	3	0	0-1	0-0
Nes Emeneke C	11	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Akiva McBirney-Griffin F	6	0	3	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Mason Hodges, Luke Isaak, Josh Palmer, Bryce Goldman, Tishan Ahir, Torian Lee, Langston Redfield, Ben Egbo

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCI -2.5	UNI -2.2	UNI +4.7	W UNI covered
Total	138.5	134.4	Under 4.1	L Over
Projected score	—	UNI 68.3 · UCI 66.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNI -1.5	UNI -10.0
1H total	63.0	60
1H projected score	UNI 32.2 · UCI 30.8	UNI 35 · UCI 25

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNI WLWL	2-2	50%	—	—
UCI LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: UNI away, as underdog; UCI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNI UUUU	0-4	0%	4-0
UCI UUO	1-2	33%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNIlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	0-4 0%
UCIlast 3	1-2 33%	0-3 0%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNI 0–1 UCIUCI leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNI 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2024-25	UCI 80 @ UNI 60	UNI -3.5	UCI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northern Iowa

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −18.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsCSUN	W 86-57	-9.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	vsSDST	W 65-58	-10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 14	vsFUR	W 70-54	-9.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 18	vsNIU	W 70-57	-19.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

+19.5

SDST

W 65-58

−3.5

FUR

W 70-54

+6.5

NIU

W 70-57

−6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

−10.5

SDST

W 65-58

−27.5

FUR

W 70-54

−17.5

NIU

W 70-57

−19.5

over 0under 4avg −18.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Irvine

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −7.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCBU	L 61-69	-8.5	L −16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsWEB	W 79-70	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Nov 19	@UVU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−16.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

−4.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−17.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

+1.5

over 1under 2avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northern Iowa Panthers at UC Irvine Anteaters

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Northern Iowa

UC Irvine

Northern Iowa

UC Irvine