UT Arlington Mavericks at Weber State Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 9:00 PM ETDee Events Center · at Weber St

#257UTAUT Arlington74▲ winner

Final

#313WEBWeber St73final

Closing lineWEB -2.5✓ UTA covered by 3.5

Closing total149.5Under by 2.5

Season records: UT Arlington and Weber St
UTA	This season	WEB
2-2	Record	1-3
2-2	ATS	4-0
1-3	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTA 76–77 WEB · ✗ WEB (54%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTA	33	41	74
WEB	27	46	73

1st half: UTA 33, WEB 27 (UTA by 6). The model had WEB by 0.5 and a total of 71.5 (actual 60).

Team stats

UTA		WEB
29-57 51%	Field goals	26-54 48%
6-17 35%	3-pointers	6-18 33%
10-12 83%	Free throws	15-17 88%
30 8 off	Rebounds	29 7 off
11	Assists	8
6	Steals	5
3	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	11
15	Fouls	13
46	Points in paint	34
6	Fast-break points	17

Players

UTA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Marcell McCreary G	33	20	4	1	6-11	2-4
Raysean Seamster F	33	15	5	3	7-15	1-4
Cash Chavis G	26	7	2	5	2-6	0-1
Cameron Jackson F	24	8	4	0	4-6	0-0
Marcus Rigsby Jr. G	22	3	4	1	1-3	1-3
Bench
Jayden Smoot G	20	5	4	0	2-3	1-2
Jordan Lowery G	13	10	0	0	4-5	1-1
Miles Goodman F	12	2	1	0	1-4	0-2
Tyran Mason G	7	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Bahsil Laster G	6	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Amari Reed F	4	2	1	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Stoney Hadnot, Alex Bossinakis, Augustine Youssef

WEB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jace Whiting G	33	13	5	2	5-7	1-2
Tijan Saine Jr. G	29	8	1	2	3-6	0-1
Viljami Vartiainen G	26	10	2	1	4-11	2-7
Edwin Suarez Jr. F	24	6	5	1	2-4	0-0
Malek Gomma C	21	9	3	0	4-6	1-1
Bench
Trevor Hennig G	27	12	3	2	4-9	0-1
Nigel Burris F	24	12	4	0	3-7	1-3
David Hansen F	8	0	3	0	0-2	0-2
ArDarius Grayson G	7	3	0	0	1-2	1-1
Duce Paschal G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Declan Cutler, Brady Smith, Anthony Moore, Bourgeois Tshilobo, Tyler Christensen

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WEB -2.5	WEB -1.1	UTA +1.4	W UTA covered
Total	149.5	152.7	Over 3.2	L Under
Projected score	—	UTA 75.8 · WEB 76.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WEB -0.5	UTA -6.0
1H total	71.5	60
1H projected score	UTA 35.5 · WEB 36	UTA 33 · WEB 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTA LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
WEB WWWW	4-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: UTA away, as underdog; WEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTA UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2
WEB OUUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
WEBlast 4	1-3 25%	4-0 100%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UT Arlington

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UNM	L 56-74	+13.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsMOST	W 67-49	-3.5	W +14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 18	@EVAN	W 84-76	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsCAM	L 67-71	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

L 56-74

−4.5

MOST

W 67-49

+14.5

EVAN

W 84-76

+10.5

CAM

L 67-71

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

L 56-74

−15.5

MOST

W 67-49

−27.5

EVAN

W 84-76

+21.5

CAM

L 67-71

−13.5

over 1under 3avg −8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Weber St

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

4-0

100% covers · avg +8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UTAH	L 89-92	+15.5	W +12.5	148.5	O 181
Nov 12	@USU	L 73-83	+22.5	W +12.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 15	@UCI	L 70-79	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsCAM	W 91-85	-1.5	W +4.5	159.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

L 89-92

+12.5

USU

L 73-83

+12.5

UCI

L 70-79

+2.5

CAM

W 91-85

+4.5

covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

L 89-92

+32.5

USU

L 73-83

−0.5

UCI

L 70-79

−2.5

CAM

W 91-85

+16.5

over 2under 2avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UT Arlington Mavericks at Weber State Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UT Arlington

Weber St

UT Arlington

Weber St