Campbell Fighting Camels vs UT Arlington Mavericks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 3:00 PM ETDee Events Center · Neutral site

#243CAMCampbell71▲ winner

Final

Closing lineCAM -1.5✓ CAM covered by 2.5

Closing total151.5Under by 13.5

Season records: Campbell and UT Arlington
CAM	This season	UTA
1-3	Record	2-1
1-3	ATS	2-1
3-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CAM 76–76 UTA · ✓ CAM (51%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CAM	28	43	71
UTA	31	36	67

1st half: CAM 28, UTA 31 (UTA by 3). The model had CAM by 0.4 and a total of 71.1 (actual 59).

Team stats

CAM		UTA
24-52 46%	Field goals	25-61 41%
4-15 27%	3-pointers	4-13 31%
19-32 59%	Free throws	13-20 65%
39 11 off	Rebounds	33 12 off
9	Assists	13
5	Steals	10
1	Blocks	3
17	Turnovers	15
15	Fouls	24
36	Points in paint	40
19	Fast-break points	8

Players

CAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
DJ Smith G	39	20	6	1	6-14	1-5
Dovydas Butka F	39	17	9	2	7-12	0-1
Cam Gregory G	38	6	6	3	2-5	1-3
Chris Fields Jr. F	24	9	5	0	3-6	0-0
Jeremiah Johnson G	17	12	2	1	4-9	1-3
Bench
Tasos Cook G	26	6	3	1	2-4	1-3
Muneer Newton F	11	1	3	0	0-2	0-0
Dominykas Butka G	6	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Klairus Amir, Daniel Marcellinus, Israel Yaw, Enoch Kalambay, Broc Bidwell

UTA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Marcell McCreary G	31	14	7	4	4-9	1-2
Raysean Seamster F	29	16	7	0	7-18	2-6
Cash Chavis G	28	2	1	8	1-6	0-0
Cameron Jackson F	24	15	8	0	6-7	0-0
Bahsil Laster G	14	5	1	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
Marcus Rigsby Jr. G	25	6	2	0	3-7	0-2
Jordan Lowery G	13	4	1	0	1-2	0-1
Miles Goodman F	11	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Tyran Mason G	11	0	1	0	0-5	0-1
Jayden Smoot G	10	5	1	0	2-3	1-1
Amari Reed F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Stoney Hadnot, Alex Bossinakis, Augustine Youssef

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CAM -1.5	CAM -0.3	UTA +1.2	L CAM covered
Total	151.5	151.7	Over 0.2	L Under
Projected score	—	CAM 76 · UTA 75.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CAM -0.4	UTA -3.0
1H total	71.1	59
1H projected score	CAM 35.7 · UTA 35.3	CAM 28 · UTA 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CAM LWLL	1-3	25%	—	0-1
UTA LWW	2-1	67%	—	1-1

Venue/role: CAM neutral site, as favorite; UTA neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAM OUOO	3-1	75%	1-3
UTA UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAMlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%
UTAlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Campbell

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +11.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WIS	L 64-96	+20.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 6	@WVU	L 65-73	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsWMU	W 91-82	-9.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 19	@WEB	L 85-91	+1.5	L −4.5	159.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIS

L 64-96

−11.5

WVU

L 65-73

+7.5

WMU

W 91-82

−0.5

WEB

L 85-91

−4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIS

L 64-96

+8.5

WVU

L 65-73

−0.5

WMU

W 91-82

+20.5

WEB

L 85-91

+16.5

over 3under 1avg +11.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

UT Arlington

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −7.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

L W W

2 straight wins2 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UNM	L 56-74	+13.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsMOST	W 67-49	-3.5	W +14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 18	@EVAN	W 84-76	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

L 56-74

−4.5

MOST

W 67-49

+14.5

EVAN

W 84-76

+10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

L 56-74

−15.5

MOST

W 67-49

−27.5

EVAN

W 84-76

+21.5

over 1under 2avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Campbell vs UT Arlington

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Campbell

UT Arlington

Campbell

UT Arlington