Massachusetts Minutemen vs Charleston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 3:00 PM ETUVI Sports & Fitness Center · Neutral site

#209MASSUMass65final

Final

#117COFCCharleston69▲ winner

Closing lineCOFC -3.5✓ COFC covered by 0.5

Closing total161.5Under by 27.5

Season records: UMass and Charleston
MASS	This season	COFC
3-1	Record	1-3
1-3	ATS	1-3
2-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MASS 80–81 COFC · ✓ COFC (54%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MASS	28	37	65
COFC	29	40	69

1st half: MASS 28, COFC 29 (COFC by 1). The model had COFC by 0.6 and a total of 75.6 (actual 57).

Team stats

MASS		COFC
26-56 46%	Field goals	21-49 43%
7-24 29%	3-pointers	3-21 14%
6-13 46%	Free throws	24-29 83%
34 10 off	Rebounds	24 3 off
15	Assists	7
5	Steals	5
0	Blocks	5
15	Turnovers	9
27	Fouls	19
26	Points in paint	30
9	Fast-break points	15

Players

MASS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Marcus Banks Jr. G	35	18	4	2	6-16	3-10
Jayden Ndjigue G	31	5	8	0	2-3	1-2
Leonardo Bettiol F	27	14	3	5	6-13	0-0
Daniel Hankins-Sanford F	26	9	4	0	4-7	1-3
K'Jei Parker G	20	8	1	4	3-7	2-5
Bench
Danny Carbuccia G	23	6	3	3	3-4	0-1
Luka Damjanac F	13	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Dwayne Wimbley Jr. F	11	1	0	0	0-3	0-2
Dimitri Clerc F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Isaiah Placide G	4	2	0	1	1-2	0-1
Donovan Brown G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
CJ Outlaw F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bilal Osman, Josh Engel, Rollie Castineyra

COFC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Connor Hickman G	34	11	1	0	4-16	1-9
Martin Kalu G	28	7	4	1	3-8	0-3
Jlynn Counter G	28	12	3	1	4-5	0-1
Christian Reeves C	13	6	1	0	2-2	0-0
Kendall Taylor G	11	0	1	0	0-3	0-1
Bench
Chol Machot C	21	2	3	0	0-0	0-0
Jaxon Prunty G	19	3	2	2	1-3	0-2
Chadlyn Traylor G	15	9	2	1	2-5	1-3
Bryce Baker G	14	3	3	1	1-2	1-2
Mister Dean G	10	8	0	1	4-5	0-0
Will Mortimore F	7	8	3	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Joey Scarpitti, Chris Davis Jr., AJ Fowler, Colby Duggan, Djordje Curcic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COFC -3.5	COFC -1.2	MASS +2.3	L COFC covered
Total	161.5	161.3	Under 0.2	W Under
Projected score	—	MASS 80.1 · COFC 81.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COFC -0.6	COFC -1.0
1H total	75.6	57
1H projected score	MASS 37.5 · COFC 38.1	MASS 28 · COFC 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MASS LWLL	1-3	25%	—	—
COFC LLWL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: MASS neutral site, as underdog; COFC neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1
COFC OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASSlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%
COFClast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UMass

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRSH	L 72-78	-4.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsUALB	W 83-62	-9.5	W +11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 13	vsLEM	W 94-80	-16.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 16	vsCCSU	W 84-77	-12.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRSH

L 72-78

−10.5

UALB

W 83-62

+11.5

LEM

W 94-80

−2.5

CCSU

W 84-77

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRSH

L 72-78

−2.5

UALB

W 83-62

−10.5

LEM

W 94-80

+20.5

CCSU

W 84-77

+16.5

over 2under 2avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Charleston

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@LIB	L 75-90	+9.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsFAU	L 77-94	+5.5	L −11.5	156.5	O 171
Nov 14	vsSCST	W 88-61	-18.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 17	vsDRKE	L 62-71	-7.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

−5.5

FAU

L 77-94

−11.5

SCST

W 88-61

+8.5

DRKE

L 62-71

−16.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

+19.5

FAU

L 77-94

+14.5

SCST

W 88-61

−7.5

DRKE

L 62-71

−20.5

over 2under 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Massachusetts Minutemen vs Charleston Cougars

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UMass

Charleston

UMass

Charleston