Drake Bulldogs at Charleston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETTD Arena · at Charleston

#144DRKEDrake71▲ winner

Final

#117COFCCharleston62final

Closing lineCOFC -7.5✓ DRKE covered by 16.5

Closing total153.5Under by 20.5

Season records: Drake and Charleston
DRKE	This season	COFC
1-2	Record	1-2
0-3	ATS	1-2
2-1	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DRKE 73–77 COFC · ✗ COFC (64%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DRKE	28	43	71
COFC	25	37	62

1st half: DRKE 28, COFC 25 (DRKE by 3). The model had COFC by 2.4 and a total of 70.6 (actual 53).

Team stats

DRKE		COFC
26-61 43%	Field goals	22-64 34%
11-31 35%	3-pointers	6-25 24%
8-14 57%	Free throws	12-19 63%
40 11 off	Rebounds	46 16 off
16	Assists	7
5	Steals	10
2	Blocks	0
13	Turnovers	11
18	Fouls	16
30	Points in paint	26
5	Fast-break points	12

Players

DRKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Andrew Alia G	38	13	4	1	5-9	3-5
Jalen Quinn G	35	17	7	3	5-11	1-2
Okku Federiko F	26	12	7	2	5-10	1-6
Wilguens Jr. Exacte F	18	4	4	4	2-7	0-4
Jaehshon Thomas G	16	0	1	1	0-3	0-1
Bench
Braden Appelhans G	29	12	3	1	4-8	3-5
Eli Shetlar G	29	11	9	3	4-9	3-7
Griffen Goodbary F	9	2	2	1	1-4	0-1

Did not play: LJ Rush, Bryson Bahl, Heri Bukinga, Owen Larson, Isaiah Carr

COFC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jlynn Counter G	33	21	7	1	8-17	3-6
Martin Kalu G	29	7	4	0	3-8	0-2
Chol Machot C	28	7	9	0	3-6	0-1
Mister Dean G	26	12	7	3	3-9	0-2
Jaxon Prunty G	22	5	6	1	1-5	1-3
Bench
Chadlyn Traylor G	18	5	2	1	2-7	1-4
Will Mortimore F	12	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Bryce Baker G	11	3	3	0	1-2	1-2
Chris Davis Jr. G	10	0	2	0	0-2	0-2
Kendall Taylor G	9	0	1	0	0-4	0-2
Djordje Curcic G	2	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Joey Scarpitti, AJ Fowler, Colby Duggan, Christian Reeves, Connor Hickman

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COFC -7.5	COFC -4.2	DRKE +3.3	W DRKE covered
Total	153.5	150.7	Under 2.8	W Under
Projected score	—	DRKE 73.2 · COFC 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COFC -2.4	DRKE -3.0
1H total	70.6	53
1H projected score	DRKE 34.1 · COFC 36.5	DRKE 28 · COFC 25

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DRKE LLL	0-3	0%	—	—
COFC LLW	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: DRKE away, as underdog; COFC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DRKE OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
COFC OOU	2-1	67%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DRKElast 3	1-2 33%	0-3 0%	2-1 67%
COFClast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Drake

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAU	W 77-71	-8.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 6	vsRMU	L 79-81	-7.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsSIUE	L 59-61	-7.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

−2.5

RMU

L 79-81

−9.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−9.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

+3.5

RMU

L 79-81

+8.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−22.5

over 2under 1avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Charleston

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@LIB	L 75-90	+9.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsFAU	L 77-94	+5.5	L −11.5	156.5	O 171
Nov 14	vsSCST	W 88-61	-18.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

−5.5

FAU

L 77-94

−11.5

SCST

W 88-61

+8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

+19.5

FAU

L 77-94

+14.5

SCST

W 88-61

−7.5

over 2under 1avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Drake Bulldogs at Charleston Cougars

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Drake

Charleston

Drake

Charleston