SIU Edwardsville Cougars at Drake Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ETKnapp Center · at Drake

#256SIUESIUE61▲ winner

Final

#144DRKEDrake59final

Closing lineDRKE -7.5✓ SIUE covered by 9.5

Closing total142.5Under by 22.5

Season records: SIUE and Drake
SIUE	This season	DRKE
1-1	Record	1-1
1-1	ATS	0-2
0-2	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SIUE 63–75 DRKE · ✗ DRKE (85%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SIUE	36	25	61
DRKE	30	29	59

1st half: SIUE 36, DRKE 30 (SIUE by 6). The model had DRKE by 7.0 and a total of 64.3 (actual 66).

Team stats

SIUE		DRKE
24-60 40%	Field goals	23-60 38%
8-29 28%	3-pointers	9-30 30%
5-9 56%	Free throws	4-8 50%
40 12 off	Rebounds	37 11 off
11	Assists	9
6	Steals	7
3	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	8
12	Fouls	11
26	Points in paint	28
7	Fast-break points	4

Players

SIUE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ring Malith G	34	20	5	0	8-15	3-8
Myles Thompson F	32	11	13	3	5-10	0-2
Arnas Sakenis C	27	5	2	0	2-5	0-1
Jack Campion G	27	7	7	8	3-7	1-3
Jordan Pickett G	21	0	4	0	0-5	0-3
Bench
Jo Valrie F	25	13	4	0	4-8	3-6
Darrion Baker F	15	5	2	0	2-4	1-2
Darius Robinson Jr. G	13	0	0	0	0-4	0-3
Kyle Thomas F	6	0	1	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Tyler King, Iwo Baganc, Dehrio McCaskill, Corentin Efono, CJ Hall, Harrison Alexander

DRKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Okku Federiko F	35	11	8	0	4-7	1-2
Jalen Quinn G	34	11	4	3	5-14	1-4
Wilguens Jr. Exacte F	33	12	6	3	4-10	2-5
Jaehshon Thomas G	23	4	2	0	2-9	0-5
Isaiah Carr F	9	2	1	0	1-4	0-1
Bench
Andrew Alia G	27	12	2	0	4-4	4-4
Eli Shetlar G	20	0	4	2	0-5	0-5
Braden Appelhans G	13	4	1	1	2-5	0-2
Griffen Goodbary F	6	3	2	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Heri Bukinga, Bryson Bahl, LJ Rush, Owen Larson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DRKE -7.5	DRKE -11.8	DRKE +4.3	L SIUE covered
Total	142.5	137.2	Under 5.3	W Under
Projected score	—	SIUE 62.7 · DRKE 74.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DRKE -7.0	SIUE -6.0
1H total	64.3	66
1H projected score	SIUE 28.6 · DRKE 35.7	SIUE 36 · DRKE 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SIUE WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
DRKE LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: SIUE away, as underdog; DRKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SIUE UU	0-2	0%	1-1
DRKE OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SIUElast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
DRKElast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SIUE

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −28.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UTSA	W 77-60	+6.5	W +23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsINST	L 55-64	-2.5	L −11.5	159.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTSA

W 77-60

+23.5

INST

L 55-64

−11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTSA

W 77-60

−16.5

INST

L 55-64

−40.5

over 0under 2avg −28.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Drake

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAU	W 77-71	-8.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 6	vsRMU	L 79-81	-7.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

−2.5

RMU

L 79-81

−9.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

+3.5

RMU

L 79-81

+8.5

over 2under 0avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SIU Edwardsville Cougars at Drake Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SIUE

Drake

SIUE

Drake