College Basketball Games Thu, Dec 4, 2025

Day in numbers9 finalFavorites 3-5 ATS1 upsetO/U 4-4Model Favorite 8-1OpenClose

Day in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below

Games99 final · 0 to play

Lines moved71+ pt since the open · 8 with a line

Totals moved71+ pt since the open

Favorites ATS3-538% covered

Upsets1outright

Over / Under4-450% over

Model Favorite8-189% won

Game	Spread, open → close	Moved	Total	Moved
USU @ USF	USU -2.5 → USF -2.5	5 → USF	162.5 → 162.5	no move
CP @ CSUF	CP -1.5 → CSUF -1.5	3 → CSUF	175.5 → 177.5	▲ 2
CIT @ DAV	DAV -20.5 → DAV -18.5	2 → CIT	142.5 → 137.5	▼ 5
LBSU @ UCSB	UCSB -12.5 → UCSB -13.5	1 → UCSB	145.5 → 141.5	▼ 4
UCR @ UCI	UCI -11.5 → UCI -13.5	2 → UCI	141.5 → 142.5	▲ 1
RID @ MRMK	MRMK -8.5 → MRMK -9.5	1 → MRMK	137.5 → 138.5	▲ 1
CSUB @ CSUN	CSUN -4.5 → CSUN -5.5	1 → CSUN	156.5 → 155.5	▼ 1
RMU @ GB	RMU -1.5 → RMU -1.5	no move	138.5 → 140.5	▲ 2

Biggest moves since the open, in points. A move says where the market went, not where it should have.

Line moved	Covered	Cover rate
1+ pts	5579-5698-5	49%
2+ pts	2172-2236-2	49%
3+ pts	880-908	49%
5+ pts	139-149	48%

Did the side the line moved toward cover the closing number? Since 2023-24, when ESPN's opening lines begin. A break-even bet at standard prices needs 52.4%.

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FinalNon-conference

The Citadel

0-6 · #339

Davidson

5-1 · #115

Spread

DAV -18.5

✓ CIT W ATS

Total

137.5 ▼5

▲ Over 142

Projected

62–82

✓ DAV won

Model: DAV by 1.6 ✗ Model: Over 6.5 ✓

FinalNon-conference

Utah State

6-0 · #58

South Florida

4-4 · #84

Spread

USF -2.5

✓ USF W ATS

Total

162.5

▼ Under 135

Projected

84–83

✗ USU lost

Model: USU by 3.9 ✗ Model: Over 4.3 ✗

FinalConference

Rider

0-5 · #347

Merrimack

3-6 · #225

Spread

MRMK -9.5

✓ RID W ATS

Total

138.5 ▲1

▼ Under 134

Projected

65–75

✓ MRMK won

Model: RID by 0.2 ✓ Model: Over 1.6 ✗

FinalConference

Robert Morris

4-3 · #168

Green Bay

2-5 · #226

Spread

RMU -1.5

✓ RMU W ATS

Total

140.5 ▲2

▲ Over 158

Projected

75–74

✓ RMU won

Model: GB by 0.3 ✗ Model: Over 7.7 ✓

FinalConference

Long Beach St

1-6 · #297

Santa Barbara

4-2 · #134

Spread

UCSB -13.5

✓ LBSU W ATS

Total

141.5 ▼4

▲ Over 161

Projected

69–80

✓ UCSB won

Model: LBSU by 2.2 ✓ Model: Over 7.0 ✓

FinalConference

Bakersfield

3-4 · #329

CSU Northridge

2-4 · #194

Spread

CSUN -5.5

✓ CSUN W ATS

Total

155.5 ▼1

▼ Under 153

Projected

77–79

✓ CSUN won

Model: CSUB by 2.8 ✗ Model: Over 0.2 ✗

FinalConference

Cal Poly

2-5 · #164

Fullerton

2-5 · #312

Spread

CSUF -1.5

✓ CP W ATS

Total

177.5 ▲2

▲ Over 185

Projected

86–85

✓ CP won

Model: CP by 2.2 ✓ Model: Under 6.8 ✗

FinalConference

UC Riverside

3-4 · #281

UC Irvine

3-4 · #149

Spread

UCI -13.5

✓ UCR W ATS

Total

142.5 ▲1

▼ Under 133

Projected

66–77

✓ UCI won

Model: UCR by 2.0 ✓ Model: Over 0.3 ✗

FinalConference

UC Davis

4-2 · #182

Hawai'i

5-2 · #140

Spread

—

Total

—

model 143.3

Projected

67–76

✓ HAW won

Status	Matchup	Spread	Total	Model line	Spread edge	Model total	Total edge	Win prob	Model
Final	The Citadel 0-6 · #339 63 Davidson 5-1 · #115 79	DAV -18.5	137.5	DAV -20.1	DAV +1.6	144.0	Over 6.5	96% DAV	L W	›
Final	Utah State 6-0 · #58 61 South Florida 4-4 · #84 74	USF -2.5	162.5	USU -1.4	USU +3.9	166.8	Over 4.3	55% USU	L L	›
Final	Rider 0-5 · #347 66 Merrimack 3-6 · #225 68	MRMK -9.5	138.5	MRMK -9.3	RID +0.2	140.1	Over 1.6	79% MRMK	W L	›
Final	Robert Morris 4-3 · #168 80 Green Bay 2-5 · #226 78	RMU -1.5	140.5	RMU -1.2	GB +0.3	148.2	Over 7.7	54% RMU	L W	›
Final	Long Beach St 1-6 · #297 77 Santa Barbara 4-2 · #134 84	UCSB -13.5	141.5	UCSB -11.3	LBSU +2.2	148.5	Over 7.0	84% UCSB	W W	›
Final	Bakersfield 3-4 · #329 66 CSU Northridge 2-4 · #194 87	CSUN -5.5	155.5	CSUN -2.7	CSUB +2.8	155.7	Over 0.2	59% CSUN	L L	›
Final	Cal Poly 2-5 · #164 94 Fullerton 2-5 · #312 91	CSUF -1.5	177.5	CP -0.7	CP +2.2	170.7	Under 6.8	52% CP	W L	›
Final	UC Riverside 3-4 · #281 60 UC Irvine 3-4 · #149 73	UCI -13.5	142.5	UCI -11.5	UCR +2.0	142.8	Over 0.3	84% UCI	W L	›
Final	UC Davis 4-2 · #182 69 Hawai'i 5-2 · #140 75	—	—	HAW -9.1	—	143.3	—	79% HAW		›

Day in numbers9 finalFavorites 3-5 ATS1 upsetO/U 4-4Model Favorite 8-1OpenClose

The # beside a record is the team’s power rank today, from the Rankings; AP is the poll. Spread is the market line (the favorite shows the minus). Model line and Model edge are from the model, never the market. Lines are pre-tip-off: after tip-off a tile shows the closing line. Model record

NCAAB games · Thursday, December 4, 2025

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