Long Beach State Beach at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 4, 9:00 PM ETThe Thunderdome · at Santa Barbara · Conference game

Final

#134UCSBSanta Barbara84▲ winner

Closing lineUCSB -13.5✓ LBSU covered by 6.5

Closing total141.5Over by 19.5

Season records: Long Beach St and Santa Barbara
LBSU	This season	UCSB
1-6	Record	4-2
3-4	ATS	2-4
5-2	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LBSU 69–80 UCSB · ✓ UCSB (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
LBSU	30	37	10	77
UCSB	31	36	17	84

1st half: LBSU 30, UCSB 31 (UCSB by 1). The model had UCSB by 6.7 and a total of 69.5 (actual 61).

Team stats

LBSU		UCSB
25-66 38%	Field goals	22-51 43%
8-24 33%	3-pointers	8-22 36%
19-24 79%	Free throws	32-38 84%
40 17 off	Rebounds	36 9 off
13	Assists	11
6	Steals	5
5	Blocks	1
13	Turnovers	14
30	Fouls	25
28	Points in paint	18
10	Fast-break points	5

Players

LBSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Petar Majstorovic F	44	12	4	1	4-8	1-4
Gavin Sykes G	35	24	3	0	8-21	4-11
Isaiah Lewis G	32	0	1	3	0-3	0-2
Shay Johnson Jr. F	19	2	2	1	1-1	0-0
Cole Farrell G	17	4	2	2	1-6	0-0
Bench
Shaquil Bender G	25	19	5	3	6-16	1-3
Derrick Michael Xzavierro F	17	8	10	0	2-4	0-0
Christian Jones G	14	6	1	0	2-4	2-4
Rob Diaz III G	13	2	1	2	1-3	0-0
JJ Chaikovsky F	9	0	2	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Grant Gondrezick II, Immanuel Lewis, Dallas Washington, Leopold Levillain, Jayden Alexander

UCSB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aidan Mahaney G	40	26	6	3	7-16	1-5
Colin Smith F	34	18	4	0	3-8	2-6
Zion Sensley G	33	14	5	2	5-11	4-7
Hosana Kitenge F	22	8	3	2	4-5	0-0
Miro Little G	12	1	3	2	0-2	0-0
Bench
CJ Shaw G	30	7	2	1	1-4	0-2
Marvin McGhee IV G	28	3	6	1	1-3	1-2
Evans Kipruto C	15	7	4	0	1-1	0-0
Michael Simcoe F	8	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
ZZ Clark G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Bryce Bedgood, Koat Keat Tong, Isaac Shingange, Jason Fontenet II, Luke Zuffelato, John Simcoe, Kyle Haughy

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCSB -13.5	UCSB -11.3	LBSU +2.2	W LBSU covered
Total	141.5	148.5	Over 7.0	W Over
Projected score	—	LBSU 68.6 · UCSB 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCSB -6.7	UCSB -1.0
1H total	69.5	61
1H projected score	LBSU 31.4 · UCSB 38.1	LBSU 30 · UCSB 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LBSU WWLLW	3-4	43%	1-3	3-4
UCSB LLLLW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: LBSU away, as underdog; UCSB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LBSU UOOOO	5-2	71%	1-6
UCSB OOUUO	4-2	67%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LBSUlast 7	1-6 14%	3-4 43%	5-2 71%
UCSBlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

LBSU 2–7 UCSBUCSB leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UCSB has won the last 6 meetings · LBSU 3-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2024-25	UCSB 58 @ LBSU 56	LBSU +7.5	LBSU W
Feb 1, 2024-25	LBSU 54 @ UCSB 85	UCSB -7.5	UCSB W
Mar 7, 2023-24	UCSB 76 @ LBSU 74	LBSU -4.5	UCSB W
Jan 13, 2023-24	LBSU 76 @ UCSB 85	UCSB -1.5	UCSB W
Feb 23, 2022-23	LBSU 73 @ UCSB 78	UCSB -4.5	UCSB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Long Beach St

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

U O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SDSU	L 45-77	+25.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 8	@FRES	L 62-82	+6.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	@PAC	L 66-69	+12.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 16	vsILST	L 80-82	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsMTST	L 72-78	+3.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 150
Nov 26	@PORT	L 73-93	+5.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 166
Nov 30	vsUSD	W 76-72	+2.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−6.5

FRES

L 62-82

−13.5

PAC

L 66-69

+9.5

ILST

L 80-82

+6.5

MTST

L 72-78

−2.5

PORT

L 73-93

−14.5

USD

W 76-72

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−13.5

FRES

L 62-82

+1.5

PAC

L 66-69

−6.5

ILST

L 80-82

+20.5

MTST

L 72-78

+9.5

PORT

L 73-93

+17.5

USD

W 76-72

+0.5

over 5under 2avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Barbara

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSJSU	W 85-74	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 11	@SAC	W 92-87	-7.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsLMU	L 74-78	-3.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 22	@NEV	L 64-77	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsLEH	W 72-70	-10.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsSEA	W 74-71	+2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+1.5

SAC

W 92-87

−2.5

LMU

L 74-78

−7.5

NEV

L 64-77

−7.5

LEH

W 72-70

−8.5

SEA

W 74-71

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+12.5

SAC

W 92-87

+17.5

LMU

L 74-78

+6.5

NEV

L 64-77

−6.5

LEH

W 72-70

−4.5

SEA

W 74-71

+2.5

over 4under 2avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Long Beach St @ Santa Barbara

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Long Beach St

Santa Barbara

Long Beach St

Santa Barbara