Seattle U Redhawks vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 4:30 PM ETResorts World Event Center · Neutral site

#119SEASeattle U71final

Final

#134UCSBSanta Barbara74▲ winner

Closing lineSEA -2.5✓ UCSB covered by 5.5

Closing total142.5Over by 2.5

Season records: Seattle U and Santa Barbara
SEA	This season	UCSB
5-1	Record	3-2
3-3	ATS	1-4
3-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SEA 76–71 UCSB · ✗ SEA (65%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SEA	32	39	71
UCSB	36	38	74

1st half: SEA 32, UCSB 36 (UCSB by 4). The model had SEA by 2.8 and a total of 68.7 (actual 68).

Team stats

SEA		UCSB
27-48 56%	Field goals	22-47 47%
3-11 27%	3-pointers	8-21 38%
14-22 64%	Free throws	22-25 88%
18 5 off	Rebounds	33 13 off
10	Assists	14
11	Steals	8
4	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	17
20	Fouls	18
42	Points in paint	22
9	Fast-break points	2

Players

SEA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Maleek Arington G	36	4	2	5	1-6	0-1
Will Heimbrodt F	34	20	2	2	9-10	0-0
Junseok Yeo F	33	18	6	2	7-11	2-5
Brayden Maldonado G	23	11	0	1	4-6	0-1
Houran Dan C	20	3	0	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Austin Maurer C	13	6	1	0	2-4	0-1
Miles Amos G	13	5	2	0	2-3	0-0
John Christofilis G	11	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Jojo Murphy G	10	4	0	0	1-2	1-2
Brock Felder F	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: JT White, Stratos Papastavrou, Jeremiah Harshman, Yuto Kawashima, Eric Zheng, Ray Adams

UCSB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aidan Mahaney G	35	14	0	1	5-12	1-6
Colin Smith F	31	5	4	1	2-5	1-2
Miro Little G	30	12	4	6	3-6	1-3
Zion Sensley G	29	20	6	0	5-8	4-6
Hosana Kitenge F	26	4	6	4	0-3	0-0
Bench
CJ Shaw G	22	9	3	0	4-6	0-0
Michael Simcoe F	10	4	1	0	1-3	0-1
Marvin McGhee IV G	9	5	3	2	2-4	1-3
Evans Kipruto C	5	1	0	0	0-0	0-0
ZZ Clark G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Koat Keat Tong, Kyle Haughy, John Simcoe, Luke Zuffelato, Bryce Bedgood, Jason Fontenet II, Isaac Shingange

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SEA -2.5	SEA -4.4	SEA +1.9	L UCSB covered
Total	142.5	146.7	Over 4.2	W Over
Projected score	—	SEA 75.5 · UCSB 71.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SEA -2.8	UCSB -4.0
1H total	68.7	68
1H projected score	SEA 35.8 · UCSB 33	SEA 32 · UCSB 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SEA LWLWW	3-3	50%	1-0	2-3
UCSB WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: SEA neutral site, as favorite; UCSB neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA UOOUU	3-3	50%	5-1
UCSB OOOUU	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEAlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
UCSBlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Seattle U

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEN	W 84-73	-13.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsCP	L 71-73	-10.5	L −12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	vsEWU	W 94-67	-8.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 15	vsIDST	W 83-74	-11.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 157
Nov 21	@STAN	W 77-69	+10.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 28	vsTXST	W 66-52	-7.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

−2.5

L 71-73

−12.5

EWU

W 94-67

+18.5

IDST

W 83-74

−2.5

STAN

W 77-69

+18.5

TXST

W 66-52

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

+20.5

L 71-73

−20.5

EWU

W 94-67

+12.5

IDST

W 83-74

+18.5

STAN

W 77-69

−6.5

TXST

W 66-52

−18.5

over 3under 3avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Barbara

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −4.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsSJSU	W 85-74	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 159
Nov 11	@SAC	W 92-87	-7.5	L −2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsLMU	L 74-78	-3.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 22	@NEV	L 64-77	+5.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsLEH	W 72-70	-10.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+1.5

SAC

W 92-87

−2.5

LMU

L 74-78

−7.5

NEV

L 64-77

−7.5

LEH

W 72-70

−8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJSU

W 85-74

+12.5

SAC

W 92-87

+17.5

LMU

L 74-78

+6.5

NEV

L 64-77

−6.5

LEH

W 72-70

−4.5

over 3under 2avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Seattle U vs Santa Barbara

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Seattle U

Santa Barbara

Seattle U

Santa Barbara