Summit Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
SDAK -3.5✓ SDAK covered by 13.5
SDAK -3.5✓ SDAK covered by 13.5Closing total147.5Under by 4.5
 AF | This season | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | Record | 3-3 |
| 3-5 | ATS | 3-3 |
| 3-5 | O/U | 1-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AF 76–79 SDAK · ✓ SDAK (59%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 21 | 42 | 63 |
| SDAK | 37 | 43 | 80 |
1st half: AF 21, SDAK 37 (SDAK by 16). The model had SDAK by 1.4 and a total of 72.4 (actual 58).
Team stats
| AF | SDAK | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-44 41% | Field goals | 29-60 48% |
| 1-10 10% | 3-pointers | 4-17 24% |
| 26-35 74% | Free throws | 18-25 72% |
| 22 4 off | Rebounds | 43 17 off |
| 8 | Assists | 14 |
| 9 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 0 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 22 | Fouls | 22 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| AF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Hobin F | 33 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-6 |
| Kam Sanders G | 31 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Ethan Greenberg G | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Eli Robinson F | 28 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Wesley Celichowski C | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Caleb Walker F | 28 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 10-17 | 0-0 |
| A.J. Patterson G | 18 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kolby Gilles F | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Justin Hinds G | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Sam Imade, Chris Catchings, Brendan Martin, Keaton Frisch, Riley Dering, Elliott Taite, Kyle Marshall, Josh Gatete
| SDAK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Bruns G | 34 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 8-20 | 0-2 |
| Jordan Crawford G | 29 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Uzziah Buntyn G | 29 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 4-7 | 1-1 |
| Cameron Fens C | 25 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Evan Anderson G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ethan Kizer F | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Jesse McIntosh G | 18 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5-9 | 0-3 |
| Jake Brack F | 12 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Shey Eberwein G | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Vince Buzelis G | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ashton Smith F | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Luke Bruns, Jonah Funk, Porter Ihnen, Jalen Hayes, Josiah Dotzler, Caleb Kizer
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSDAK -3.5
ModelSDAK -2.6
Model edgeAF +0.9
L SDAK covered
Total
Market147.5
Model154.7
Model edgeOver 7.2
L Under
Projected score
AF 76 · SDAK 78.6
AF 63 · SDAK 80
Win probability
SDAK 59%
1st half
Spread
SDAK -1.4
SDAK -16.0
Total
72.4
58 points
Projected score
AF 35.5 · SDAK 36.9
AF 21 · SDAK 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAF -3.5
7 → SDAK
CloseSDAK -3.5
7 pts toward SDAK
Total
Open149.5
▼ 2
Close147.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AF -3.5 · closed SDAK -3.5 · moved 7 toward SDAKmodel SDAK -2.5
model SDAK -2.5
Opened 149.5 · closed 147.5 · moved 2 downmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFlast 8 | 3-5 38% | 3-5 38% | 3-5 38% |
| SDAKlast 6 | 3-3 50% | 3-3 50% | 1-5 17% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
AF 2–1 SDAKAF leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · AF has won the last 2 meetings · AF 2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2023-24 | AF 58 @ SDAK 57 | SDAK +2.5 | SDAK W |
| Dec 6, 2022-23 | SDAK 58 @ AF 79 | AF -3.5 | AF W |
| Nov 11, 2021-22 | AF 53 @ SDAK 59 | SDAK -7 | AF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Air Force
8 games played
Straight up
3-5
38% wins
Against the spread
3-5
38% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-5
38% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BEL | L 63-79 | +15.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 8 | vs APSU | L 54-74 | +1.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 11 | vs LIU | L 72-76 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 15 | vs M-OH | L 61-76 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALST | W 66-64 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 138.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 21 | vs SIUE | W 77-63 | +2.5 | W +16.5 | 130.5 | O 140 |
| Nov 23 | vs IUIN | W 98-85 | -3.5 | W +9.5 | 175.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 26 | vs UNCO | L 53-71 | +4.5 | L −13.5 | 146.5 | U 124 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BEL
BELL 63-79
−0.5
8
vsAPSU
APSUL 54-74
−18.5
11
vsLIU
LIUL 72-76
+1.5
15
vsM-OH
M-OHL 61-76
−4.5
19
vsALST
ALSTW 66-64
−0.5
21
vsSIUE
SIUEW 77-63
+16.5
23
vsIUIN
IUINW 98-85
+9.5
26
vsUNCO
UNCOL 53-71
−13.5
covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BEL
BELL 63-79
−2.5
8
vsAPSU
APSUL 54-74
−8.5
11
vsLIU
LIUL 72-76
+10.5
15
vsM-OH
M-OHL 61-76
−6.5
19
vsALST
ALSTW 66-64
−8.5
21
vsSIUE
SIUEW 77-63
+9.5
23
vsIUIN
IUINW 98-85
+7.5
26
vsUNCO
UNCOL 53-71
−22.5
over 3under 5avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
South Dakota
6 games played
Straight up
3-3
50% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-5
17% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
UTU
UTUL 79-81
−3.5
5
@
CREI
CREIL 76-92
+13.5
12
vs
USI
USIW 89-74
+7.5
16
vs
WMU
WMUW 83-78
+1.5
20
@
MIZ
MIZL 68-102
−9.5
23
vs
SCST
SCSTW 82-81
−14.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUTU
UTUL 79-81
−4.5
5
@CREI
CREIL 76-92
−1.5
12
vsUSI
USIW 89-74
−1.5
16
vsWMU
WMUW 83-78
−11.5
20
@MIZ
MIZL 68-102
−1.5
23
vsSCST
SCSTW 82-81
+2.5
over 1under 5avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Air Force
3-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs N Colorado53–71
- Wvs IU Indy98–85
- Wvs SIUE77–63
- Wvs Alabama St66–64
- Lvs Miami OH61–76
3 days since their last game.
South Dakota
3-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Summit League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs SC State82–81
- L@ Missouri68–102
- Wvs W Michigan83–78
- Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–74
- L@ Creighton76–92
6 days since their last game.