South Carolina State Bulldogs at South Dakota Coyotes: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 2:00 PM ETSanford Coyote Sports Center · at South Dakota

#353SCSTSC State81final

Final

#291SDAKSouth Dakota82▲ winner

Closing lineSDAK -15.5✓ SCST covered by 14.5

Closing total160.5Over by 2.5

Season records: SC State and South Dakota
SCST	This season	SDAK
0-5	Record	2-3
1-4	ATS	3-2
0-5	O/U	0-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SCST 75–86 SDAK · ✓ SDAK (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SCST	35	46	81
SDAK	44	38	82

1st half: SCST 35, SDAK 44 (SDAK by 9). The model had SDAK by 6.1 and a total of 75.5 (actual 79).

Team stats

SCST		SDAK
30-64 47%	Field goals	29-61 48%
5-13 38%	3-pointers	6-20 30%
16-19 84%	Free throws	18-28 64%
33 16 off	Rebounds	42 21 off
15	Assists	15
14	Steals	6
5	Blocks	6
13	Turnovers	18
21	Fouls	15
42	Points in paint	42
15	Fast-break points	10

Players

SCST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Obie Bronston Jr. G	29	14	0	0	5-10	1-3
Cameron Clark F	24	17	6	0	8-16	0-0
Jayden Johnson G	17	4	4	3	1-3	0-1
Teon Tindal F	14	0	2	1	0-1	0-0
Jamal Miles G	3	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Bench
Rayniel Wright G	27	8	4	8	4-6	0-0
Noah Treadwell G	26	15	2	1	4-10	4-8
Florian Tenebay G	23	11	7	1	5-9	0-0
James Morrow G	21	10	2	0	2-5	0-0
Tim Okojie C	10	2	1	1	1-2	0-0
Colin McKenzie G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: D'Shay Knights Wright, Derwin Hodge Jr., Chris Parker

SDAK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Crawford G	29	25	2	0	9-14	3-7
Uzziah Buntyn G	27	9	7	6	3-7	1-2
Isaac Bruns G	26	14	3	2	5-11	0-4
Cameron Fens C	24	13	6	0	5-10	0-0
Evan Anderson G	14	2	1	2	1-1	0-0
Bench
Shey Eberwein G	22	14	4	3	4-9	2-3
Jake Brack F	20	5	5	0	2-2	0-0
Vince Buzelis G	15	0	5	1	0-2	0-0
Ethan Kizer F	14	0	1	0	0-3	0-3
Jesse McIntosh G	7	0	1	1	0-2	0-1
Ashton Smith F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Luke Bruns, Porter Ihnen, Jonah Funk, Jalen Hayes, Josiah Dotzler, Caleb Kizer

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SDAK -15.5	SDAK -10.4	SCST +5.1	W SCST covered
Total	160.5	161.3	Over 0.8	W Over
Projected score	—	SCST 75.4 · SDAK 85.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDAK -6.1	SDAK -9.0
1H total	75.5	79
1H projected score	SCST 34.7 · SDAK 40.8	SCST 35 · SDAK 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCST LWLLL	1-4	20%	1-3	1-4
SDAK LWWWL	3-2	60%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: SCST away, as underdog; SDAK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCST UUUUU	0-5	0%	0-5
SDAK UUUUU	0-5	0%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCSTlast 5	0-5 0%	1-4 20%	0-5 0%
SDAKlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	0-5 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC State

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −9.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-5

0% overs · avg −8.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-50%

U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

over 0under 5avg −8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Dakota

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-5

0% overs · avg −4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-50%

U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUTU	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 5	@CREI	L 76-92	+29.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 12	vsUSI	W 89-74	-7.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 16	vsWMU	W 83-78	-3.5	W +1.5	172.5	U 161
Nov 20	@MIZ	L 68-102	+24.5	L −9.5	171.5	U 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTU

L 79-81

−3.5

CREI

L 76-92

+13.5

USI

W 89-74

+7.5

WMU

W 83-78

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-102

−9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTU

L 79-81

−4.5

CREI

L 76-92

−1.5

USI

W 89-74

−1.5

WMU

W 83-78

−11.5

MIZ

L 68-102

−1.5

over 0under 5avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at South Dakota Coyotes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SC State

South Dakota

SC State

South Dakota