Chattanooga Mocs at South Carolina State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETSmith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center · at SC State

#227UTCChattanooga78▲ winner

Final

#353SCSTSC State66final

Closing lineUTC -11.5✓ UTC covered by 0.5

Closing total154.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Chattanooga and SC State
UTC	This season	SCST
0-3	Record	0-4
0-3	ATS	1-3
3-0	O/U	0-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTC 80–74 SCST · ✓ UTC (71%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTC	32	46	78
SCST	23	43	66

1st half: UTC 32, SCST 23 (UTC by 9). The model had UTC by 4.0 and a total of 72.1 (actual 55).

Team stats

UTC		SCST
22-49 45%	Field goals	18-61 30%
9-26 35%	3-pointers	9-28 32%
25-35 71%	Free throws	21-34 62%
36 8 off	Rebounds	30 12 off
17	Assists	10
4	Steals	5
0	Blocks	1
12	Turnovers	10
25	Fouls	26
22	Points in paint	16
10	Fast-break points	3

Players

UTC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Teddy Washington Jr. G	34	16	3	4	3-10	1-5
Jordan Frison G	29	17	5	6	4-7	3-4
Collin Mulholland F	25	12	4	2	5-6	0-0
Billy Smith G	21	11	3	3	4-9	2-7
Sebastian Hartmann F	14	8	7	0	2-2	1-1
Bench
Tate Darner G	28	3	5	1	1-4	1-3
Jikari Johnson G	17	5	1	1	2-7	1-4
Makai Richards C	15	1	6	0	0-1	0-0
Brennan Watkins G	12	5	1	0	1-3	0-2
Parker Robison G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Houston Holland G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Latif Diouf, Liam Vitters, Zach Bleshoy, Josh Bowman, Ryan Lopez, Sean Cusano

SCST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cameron Clark F	27	6	6	1	3-11	0-0
Jayden Johnson G	23	13	5	1	4-9	2-3
Obie Bronston Jr. G	17	8	3	1	2-7	2-6
James Morrow G	10	6	0	0	1-2	0-0
Florian Tenebay G	7	0	0	1	0-3	0-2
Bench
Colin McKenzie G	22	5	1	0	2-9	1-6
Noah Treadwell G	21	12	3	0	3-7	3-7
Rayniel Wright G	18	2	1	2	0-4	0-1
D'Shay Knights Wright F	15	7	3	2	2-3	0-0
Teon Tindal F	14	3	5	2	0-1	0-0
Jamal Miles G	13	4	1	0	1-3	1-3
Chris Parker F	9	0	2	0	0-2	0-0
Tim Okojie C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Derwin Hodge Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UTC -11.5	UTC -6.3	SCST +5.2	L UTC covered
Total	154.5	153.9	Under 0.6	W Under
Projected score	—	UTC 80.1 · SCST 73.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTC -4.0	UTC -9.0
1H total	72.1	55
1H projected score	UTC 38 · SCST 34.1	UTC 32 · SCST 23

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTC LLL	0-3	0%	0-3	0-1
SCST LWLL	1-3	25%	—	1-3

Venue/role: UTC away, as favorite; SCST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTC OOO	3-0	100%	0-3
SCST UUUU	0-4	0%	0-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTClast 3	0-3 0%	0-3 0%	3-0 100%
SCSTlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Chattanooga

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −16.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SMC	L 66-87	+15.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 8	@UNLV	L 69-101	+7.5	L −24.5	155.5	O 170
Nov 15	@FGCU	L 73-91	-1.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 66-87

−5.5

UNLV

L 69-101

−24.5

FGCU

L 73-91

−19.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −16.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 66-87

+7.5

UNLV

L 69-101

+14.5

FGCU

L 73-91

+11.5

over 3under 0avg +11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC State

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −12 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −12 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

over 0under 4avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Chattanooga Mocs at South Carolina State Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Chattanooga

SC State

Chattanooga

SC State