M&T Bank Center at Gampel Pavilion · at UConn
Closing line
CONN -4.5✓ ARIZ covered by 8.5
CONN -4.5✓ ARIZ covered by 8.5Closing total156.5Under by 18.5
 ARIZ | This season | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 4-0 |
| 2-2 | ATS | 1-3 |
| 1-3 | O/U | 2-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ARIZ 77–80 CONN · ✗ CONN (61%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | 35 | 36 | 71 |
| CONN | 33 | 34 | 67 |
1st half: ARIZ 35, CONN 33 (ARIZ by 2). The model had CONN by 1.7 and a total of 73.3 (actual 68).
Team stats
| ARIZ | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-54 46% | Field goals | 25-56 45% |
| 2-10 20% | 3-pointers | 8-25 32% |
| 19-25 76% | Free throws | 9-18 50% |
| 43 13 off | Rebounds | 23 6 off |
| 9 | Assists | 15 |
| 3 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 6 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 1 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| ARIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koa Peat F | 37 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 7-14 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Bradley G | 35 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 6-13 | 1-2 |
| Ivan Kharchenkov F | 30 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Motiejus Krivas C | 29 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Brayden Burries G | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Dell'Orso G | 27 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Tobe Awaka F | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Dwayne Aristode F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Sidi Gueye, Mabil Mawut, Sven Djopmo, Jackson Cook, Jackson Francois, Bryce James, Addison Arnold, Evan Nelson
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 35 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Solo Ball G | 32 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 5-14 | 1-8 |
| Jaylin Stewart F | 28 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Eric Reibe C | 28 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 6-10 | 2-5 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 26 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 6-10 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Ross F | 22 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Malachi Smith G | 17 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Dwayne Koroma F | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Uros Paunovic, Jacob Furphy, Rrezon Elezaj, Alec Millender, Braylon Mullins, Jacob Ross, Tarris Reed Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCONN -4.5
ModelCONN -3.1
Model edgeARIZ +1.4
W ARIZ covered
Total
Market156.5
Model156.5
Model edge—
Under
Projected score
ARIZ 76.7 · CONN 79.8
ARIZ 71 · CONN 67
Win probability
CONN 61%
1st half
Spread
CONN -1.7
ARIZ -2.0
Total
73.3
68 points
Projected score
ARIZ 35.8 · CONN 37.5
ARIZ 35 · CONN 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCONN -4.5
no move
CloseCONN -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open156.5
no move
Close156.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
ARIZ +190 · CONN -225
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CONN -4.5 · unchangedmodel CONN -3
model CONN -3
Opened 156.5 · unchangedmodel 156.5 matches the line
model 156.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 2-2 50% | 1-3 25% |
| CONNlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 1-3 25% | 2-2 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Arizona
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −9.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
FLA
FLAW 93-87
+9.5
7
vs
UTU
UTUW 93-67
−7.5
11
vs
NAU
NAUW 84-49
−0.5
14
vs
UCLA
UCLAW 69-65
+2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFLA
FLAW 93-87
+15.5
7
vsUTU
UTUW 93-67
−2.5
11
vsNAU
NAUW 84-49
−30.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 69-65
−19.5
over 1under 3avg −9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
UConn
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-3
25% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
NHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vs
UML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vs
COLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vs
BYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
over 2under 2avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Arizona
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UCLA69–65
- Wvs N Arizona84–49
- Wvs Utah Tech93–67
- Wvs Florida93–87
5 days since their last game.
UConn
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs BYU86–84
- Wvs Columbia89–62
- Wvs UMass Lowell110–47
- Wvs New Haven79–55
4 days since their last game.