Northern Colorado Bears at Air Force Falcons: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 6:00 PM ETClune Arena · at Air Force

#219UNCON Colorado71▲ winner

Final

Closing lineUNCO -4.5✓ UNCO covered by 13.5

Closing total146.5Under by 22.5

Season records: N Colorado and Air Force
UNCO	This season	AF
3-1	Record	3-4
3-1	ATS	3-4
3-1	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNCO 78–74 AF · ✓ UNCO (62%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNCO	28	43	71
AF	24	29	53

1st half: UNCO 28, AF 24 (UNCO by 4). The model had UNCO by 2.4 and a total of 71.3 (actual 52).

Team stats

UNCO		AF
28-52 54%	Field goals	21-51 41%
10-24 42%	3-pointers	3-17 18%
5-8 63%	Free throws	8-14 57%
31 4 off	Rebounds	28 6 off
17	Assists	9
4	Steals	2
0	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	10
15	Fouls	12
36	Points in paint	34
5	Fast-break points	2

Players

UNCO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Quinn Denker G	38	23	1	8	10-17	3-8
Ibu Yamazaki F	36	6	6	1	2-6	2-5
Zach Bloch G	35	11	3	3	3-8	3-5
Brock Wisne F	34	20	8	2	8-9	1-2
Ring Nyeri F	12	2	4	1	1-2	0-1
Bench
Ariik Mawien G	17	4	3	1	2-4	0-0
Vincent Delano G	17	3	2	0	1-3	1-3
Egan Shields C	11	2	2	1	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Will Dixion III, Tanner Braketa, Steven Ramirez Jr., Kaden Ericksen, Hunter Caldwell, Walker Asp, William Humer, Chancellor White

AF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ethan Greenberg G	36	0	4	2	0-5	0-5
Eli Robinson F	33	4	5	3	1-5	0-1
Kam Sanders G	32	16	5	2	6-12	2-4
Lucas Hobin F	32	7	0	0	2-6	1-3
Wesley Celichowski C	17	10	4	0	5-10	0-4
Bench
Caleb Walker F	23	8	2	1	3-6	0-0
A.J. Patterson G	19	8	6	0	4-6	0-0
Kolby Gilles F	8	0	0	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Sam Imade, Justin Hinds, Chris Catchings, Brendan Martin, Keaton Frisch, Riley Dering, Elliott Taite, Kyle Marshall, Josh Gatete

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCO -4.5	UNCO -3.6	AF +0.9	L UNCO covered
Total	146.5	152.1	Over 5.6	L Under
Projected score	—	UNCO 77.9 · AF 74.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCO -2.4	UNCO -4.0
1H total	71.3	52
1H projected score	UNCO 36.8 · AF 34.5	UNCO 28 · AF 24

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCO WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1
AF WLLWW	3-4	43%	3-3	2-3

Venue/role: UNCO away, as favorite; AF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCO OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1
AF OUUOO	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCOlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%
AFlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNCO 2–1 AFUNCO leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · UNCO has won the last 2 meetings · UNCO 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2024-25	AF 76 @ UNCO 81	UNCO -9.5	AF W
Dec 21, 2023-24	UNCO 83 @ AF 79	AF -7.5	UNCO W
Dec 20, 2022-23	AF 67 @ UNCO 65	UNCO -2.5	AF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Colorado

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	@PEPP	W 88-81	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSTMN	L 72-73	+4.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	@PORT	W 86-80	-3.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 23	vsCSUF	W 97-93	-8.5	L −4.5	164.5	O 190

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+5.5

STMN

L 72-73

+3.5

PORT

W 86-80

+2.5

CSUF

W 97-93

−4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+15.5

STMN

L 72-73

−12.5

PORT

W 86-80

+8.5

CSUF

W 97-93

+25.5

over 3under 1avg +9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Air Force

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L L L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BEL	L 63-79	+15.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsAPSU	L 54-74	+1.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	vsLIU	L 72-76	+5.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsM-OH	L 61-76	+10.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 19	vsALST	W 66-64	-2.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsSIUE	W 77-63	+2.5	W +16.5	130.5	O 140
Nov 23	vsIUIN	W 98-85	-3.5	W +9.5	175.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−0.5

APSU

L 54-74

−18.5

LIU

L 72-76

+1.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−4.5

ALST

W 66-64

−0.5

SIUE

W 77-63

+16.5

IUIN

W 98-85

+9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−2.5

APSU

L 54-74

−8.5

LIU

L 72-76

+10.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−6.5

ALST

W 66-64

−8.5

SIUE

W 77-63

+9.5

IUIN

W 98-85

+7.5

over 3under 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northern Colorado Bears at Air Force Falcons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Colorado

Air Force

N Colorado

Air Force