IU Indianapolis Jaguars at Air Force Falcons: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 5:00 PM ETClune Arena · at Air Force

#340IUINIU Indy85final

Final

#220AFAir Force98▲ winner

Closing lineAF -3.5✓ AF covered by 9.5

Closing total175.5Over by 7.5

Season records: IU Indy and Air Force
IUIN	This season	AF
1-5	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: IUIN 79–85 AF · ✓ AF (68%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
IUIN	49	36	85
AF	48	50	98

1st half: IUIN 49, AF 48 (IUIN by 1). The model had AF by 3.1 and a total of 76.6 (actual 97).

Team stats

IUIN		AF
31-70 44%	Field goals	37-63 59%
10-31 32%	3-pointers	10-23 43%
13-18 72%	Free throws	14-17 82%
33 13 off	Rebounds	37 7 off
17	Assists	25
5	Steals	6
4	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	15
20	Fouls	17
42	Points in paint	54
12	Fast-break points	25

Players

IUIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kyler D'Augustino G	34	20	2	4	9-15	1-5
Maguire Mitchell G	28	11	2	2	4-9	2-7
Finley Woodward F	26	8	6	3	2-7	0-0
Matt Compas G	23	16	2	2	8-15	0-1
Reece Hagy F	7	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Kameron Tinsley F	25	17	4	0	5-11	4-8
Aiden Miller F	20	4	8	2	1-3	1-2
JP Dragas G	20	4	1	1	1-3	1-3
Micah Davis G	17	5	1	3	1-6	1-4

Did not play: Jaxon Edwards, Gabe Stewart, Garrett Sever, Corey Boston, Lav Cvetkovic, Ajay Holubar

AF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ethan Greenberg G	38	9	4	2	3-11	3-8
Lucas Hobin F	36	27	3	2	8-13	5-10
Eli Robinson F	32	17	9	8	7-13	1-2
Kam Sanders G	27	13	7	7	5-8	1-1
Wesley Celichowski C	11	2	3	1	1-2	0-1
Bench
Caleb Walker F	29	21	6	0	10-12	0-0
A.J. Patterson G	17	4	1	3	1-1	0-0
Kolby Gilles F	8	5	0	2	2-3	0-1
Justin Hinds G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Keaton Frisch, Brendan Martin, Sam Imade, Chris Catchings, Riley Dering, Elliott Taite, Kyle Marshall, Josh Gatete

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AF -3.5	AF -5.5	AF +2.0	W AF covered
Total	175.5	163.5	Under 12.0	L Over
Projected score	—	IUIN 79 · AF 84.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AF -3.1	IUIN -1.0
1H total	76.6	97
1H projected score	IUIN 36.7 · AF 39.9	IUIN 49 · AF 48

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IUIN LLWLL	2-4	33%	2-2	2-1
AF LWLLW	2-4	33%	2-3	0-1

Venue/role: IUIN away, as underdog; AF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IUIN UUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5
AF UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IUINlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
AFlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

IU Indy

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −4.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OSU	L 102-118	+33.5	W +17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 6	vsLIU	L 90-94	-4.5	L −8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 8	@BTLR	L 80-112	+20.5	L −11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 14	@EMU	W 90-83	+4.5	W +11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@CHSO	L 91-103	-1.5	L −13.5	188.5	O 194
Nov 21	vsALST	L 80-101	-2.5	L −23.5	181.5	U 181

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+17.5

LIU

L 90-94

−8.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−11.5

EMU

W 90-83

+11.5

CHSO

L 91-103

−13.5

ALST

L 80-101

−23.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+47.5

LIU

L 90-94

−1.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−0.5

EMU

W 90-83

−13.5

CHSO

L 91-103

+5.5

ALST

L 80-101

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Air Force

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BEL	L 63-79	+15.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsAPSU	L 54-74	+1.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	vsLIU	L 72-76	+5.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsM-OH	L 61-76	+10.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 19	vsALST	W 66-64	-2.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 130
Nov 21	vsSIUE	W 77-63	+2.5	W +16.5	130.5	O 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−0.5

APSU

L 54-74

−18.5

LIU

L 72-76

+1.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−4.5

ALST

W 66-64

−0.5

SIUE

W 77-63

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−2.5

APSU

L 54-74

−8.5

LIU

L 72-76

+10.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−6.5

ALST

W 66-64

−8.5

SIUE

W 77-63

+9.5

over 2under 4avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

IU Indianapolis Jaguars at Air Force Falcons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

IU Indy

Air Force

IU Indy

Air Force