Northern Colorado Bears at Portland Pilots: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 8:00 PM ETChiles Center · at Portland

#219UNCON Colorado86▲ winner

Final

#169PORTPortland80final

Closing lineUNCO -3.5✓ UNCO covered by 2.5

Closing total157.5Over by 8.5

Season records: N Colorado and Portland
UNCO	This season	PORT
1-1	Record	3-1
2-0	ATS	2-2
1-1	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNCO 81–78 PORT · ✓ UNCO (61%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
UNCO	35	34	17	86
PORT	32	37	11	80

1st half: UNCO 35, PORT 32 (UNCO by 3). The model had UNCO by 2.0 and a total of 74.2 (actual 67).

Team stats

UNCO		PORT
31-67 46%	Field goals	32-71 45%
8-28 29%	3-pointers	4-24 17%
16-18 89%	Free throws	12-16 75%
34 6 off	Rebounds	41 12 off
19	Assists	22
6	Steals	6
4	Blocks	1
11	Turnovers	14
17	Fouls	18
42	Points in paint	52
19	Fast-break points	7

Players

UNCO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Quinn Denker G	43	29	6	7	8-14	3-4
Brock Wisne F	38	14	4	2	6-14	0-3
Ibu Yamazaki F	36	12	5	2	4-10	3-9
Zach Bloch G	28	8	1	1	3-8	2-6
Ring Nyeri F	24	4	2	1	2-5	0-2
Bench
Egan Shields C	28	15	11	3	6-8	0-0
Vincent Delano G	23	4	0	3	2-8	0-4
Ariik Mawien G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Tanner Braketa G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Hunter Caldwell, Will Dixion III, Steven Ramirez Jr., Kaden Ericksen, Walker Asp, Chancellor White, William Humer

PORT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joel Foxwell G	33	9	8	10	4-12	1-5
James O'Donnell F	33	14	5	2	6-10	0-0
Cameron Williams F	31	15	8	2	6-9	1-3
Matus Hronsky F	31	12	3	1	4-9	0-5
Garrett Nuckolls G	29	4	4	3	2-10	0-3
Bench
Mikah Ballew G	29	10	3	1	3-8	2-6
Timo George F	18	11	5	2	5-7	0-2
Dante Censori-Hercules G	13	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Jermaine Ballisager Webb C	8	3	1	1	1-4	0-0

Did not play: Marchelo Moreira, Riley Parker, NaVaughn Long, Carlin Briggs, Preston Lee, Kelson Gebbers

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCO -3.5	UNCO -3.1	PORT +0.4	L UNCO covered
Total	157.5	158.4	Over 0.9	W Over
Projected score	—	UNCO 80.8 · PORT 77.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCO -2.0	UNCO -3.0
1H total	74.2	67
1H projected score	UNCO 38.1 · PORT 36.1	UNCO 35 · PORT 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCO WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
PORT LWLW	2-2	50%	2-1	0-1

Venue/role: UNCO away, as favorite; PORT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCO OU	1-1	50%	1-1
PORT UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCOlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%
PORTlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Colorado

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	@PEPP	W 88-81	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSTMN	L 72-73	+4.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+5.5

STMN

L 72-73

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+15.5

STMN

L 72-73

−12.5

over 1under 1avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Portland

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsUAPB	W 83-74	-12.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 157
Nov 9	vsUCD	W 67-63	-1.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 15	@WYO	L 56-93	+11.5	L −25.5	160.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsCSUF	W 103-85	-6.5	W +11.5	164.5	O 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 83-74

−3.5

UCD

W 67-63

+2.5

WYO

L 56-93

−25.5

CSUF

W 103-85

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 83-74

−7.5

UCD

W 67-63

−21.5

WYO

L 56-93

−11.5

CSUF

W 103-85

+23.5

over 1under 3avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Colorado @ Portland

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Colorado

Portland

N Colorado

Portland