Howard Bison at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 4:00 PM ETKnott Arena · at Mount St Marys

#197HOWHoward75final

Final

Closing lineMSM -2.5✓ MSM covered by 1.5

Closing total146.5Over by 7.5

Season records: Howard and Mount St Marys
HOW	This season	MSM
2-4	Record	1-6
3-3	ATS	4-3
1-5	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HOW 72–75 MSM · ✓ MSM (61%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HOW	43	32	75
MSM	45	34	79

1st half: HOW 43, MSM 45 (MSM by 2). The model had MSM by 1.8 and a total of 68.5 (actual 88).

Team stats

HOW		MSM
26-68 38%	Field goals	29-56 52%
8-29 28%	3-pointers	8-18 44%
15-21 71%	Free throws	13-16 81%
33 13 off	Rebounds	42 8 off
14	Assists	15
10	Steals	4
4	Blocks	4
6	Turnovers	15
14	Fouls	16
26	Points in paint	40
12	Fast-break points	13

Players

HOW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bryce Harris G	35	13	5	2	4-16	1-6
Alex Cotton G	33	15	5	2	5-15	3-11
Cam Gillus G	32	13	5	3	5-10	3-5
Danas Kazakevicius C	29	13	7	2	5-8	0-1
Ose Okojie G	16	6	1	3	2-3	0-1
Bench
Travelle Bryson G	25	10	5	1	4-9	0-3
Isaiah Brown G	11	3	1	1	1-5	1-2
Ed Holland III G	10	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jeremiah Johnson G	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
BJ Powell G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: River Smith, Julian Johnson, Shane Frazier, Stefan Isailovic, Calvin Robins Jr., Cedric Taylor III

MSM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xavier Lipscomb G	35	9	3	6	4-9	1-3
Justin Amadi F	34	21	10	2	7-12	0-0
Mason So G	33	9	1	1	3-6	1-3
Luke McEldon F	30	14	9	1	6-8	0-0
Arlandus Keyes G	30	10	4	2	3-11	2-6
Bench
Anastasios Rozakeas G	17	8	4	2	3-5	2-2
Patrick Haigh G	11	6	2	1	2-4	2-4
Yakhya Diop F	10	2	4	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Noah Rogers, Justin May, John Miller IV, Trey Deveaux, Abdou Khadre Kebe, Elijah Espinosa, Jaxon Hartman, Anthony Arrington Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MSM -2.5	MSM -3.2	MSM +0.7	W MSM covered
Total	146.5	146.2	Under 0.3	L Over
Projected score	—	HOW 71.5 · MSM 74.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSM -1.8	MSM -2.0
1H total	68.5	88
1H projected score	HOW 33.3 · MSM 35.1	HOW 43 · MSM 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOW LWLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
MSM WWWLL	4-3	57%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: HOW away, as underdog; MSM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOW UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
MSM UUOUO	2-5	29%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOWlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
MSMlast 7	1-6 14%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HOW 2–2 MSMSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · HOW 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 30, 2024-25	MSM 79 @ HOW 75	HOW -7.5	MSM W
Nov 25, 2023-24	HOW 87 @ MSM 83	MSM +2.5	HOW W
Dec 21, 2022-23	MSM 62 @ HOW 63	HOW -2.5	MSM W
Nov 30, 2021-22	HOW 70 @ MSM 72	MSM -4.5	HOW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Howard

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMIZ	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 9	vsGRAM	L 70-73	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 13	vsALCN	W 72-64	-6.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 19	@STET	L 60-64	-1.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 124
Nov 22	vsNIA	W 80-70	-4.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 150
Nov 23	@DUKE	L 56-93	+43.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−0.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−7.5

ALCN

W 72-64

+1.5

STET

L 60-64

−5.5

NIA

W 80-70

+5.5

DUKE

L 56-93

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−3.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−9.5

ALCN

W 72-64

−18.5

STET

L 60-64

−25.5

NIA

W 80-70

+11.5

DUKE

L 56-93

−5.5

over 1under 5avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mount St Marys

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 19	@MD	L 90-95	+17.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 23	@WMU	L 60-83	+1.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 25	@OSU	L 60-113	+30.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

L 90-95

+12.5

WMU

L 60-83

−21.5

OSU

L 60-113

−22.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

L 90-95

+39.5

WMU

L 60-83

−7.5

OSU

L 60-113

+21.5

over 2under 5avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Howard Bison at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Howard

Mount St Marys

Howard

Mount St Marys