Niagara Purple Eagles vs Howard Bison: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 4:00 PM ETCameron Indoor Stadium · Neutral site

#346NIANiagara70final

Final

#197HOWHoward80▲ winner

Closing lineHOW -4.5✓ HOW covered by 5.5

Closing total138.5Over by 11.5

Season records: Niagara and Howard
NIA	This season	HOW
2-3	Record	1-3
2-3	ATS	1-3
2-3	O/U	0-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NIA 69–68 HOW · ✗ NIA (53%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NIA	37	33	70
HOW	29	51	80

1st half: NIA 37, HOW 29 (NIA by 8). The model had NIA by 0.6 and a total of 64.3 (actual 66).

Team stats

NIA		HOW
23-50 46%	Field goals	22-50 44%
4-14 29%	3-pointers	6-21 29%
20-29 69%	Free throws	30-43 70%
32 9 off	Rebounds	31 11 off
7	Assists	11
4	Steals	16
5	Blocks	2
22	Turnovers	15
31	Fouls	25
30	Points in paint	28
11	Fast-break points	34

Players

NIA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justin Page G	35	9	3	2	4-12	1-6
Justin Hawkins F	34	22	2	0	6-8	1-1
Reggie Prudhomme G	27	5	4	2	2-5	0-1
Trenton Walters G	23	11	2	0	4-8	2-2
Will Shortt F	11	2	2	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Josiah Sabino G	26	9	3	1	2-4	0-2
Drew Larson F	17	2	6	1	1-2	0-0
Brian Griffith G	16	10	3	0	4-10	0-2
Vice Zanki F	11	0	4	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Gael Dalmau, Kabeya Tshibangu, AJ McBride, Landon Williams

HOW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alex Cotton G	34	6	4	0	2-7	2-6
Cam Gillus G	31	12	4	6	1-6	1-3
Ose Okojie G	26	13	5	4	5-7	1-1
Bryce Harris G	24	20	5	1	6-12	1-5
Danas Kazakevicius C	18	0	4	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Travelle Bryson G	27	15	3	0	4-8	0-3
Jeremiah Johnson G	16	5	0	0	1-4	0-1
Isaiah Brown G	9	6	2	0	2-3	1-1
Ed Holland III G	7	1	3	0	0-1	0-1
Julian Johnson F	7	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Calvin Robins Jr. F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Stefan Isailovic, BJ Powell, Shane Frazier, River Smith, Cedric Taylor III

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HOW -4.5	NIA -0.8	NIA +5.3	L HOW covered
Total	138.5	137.2	Under 1.3	L Over
Projected score	—	NIA 69 · HOW 68.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NIA -0.6	NIA -8.0
1H total	64.3	66
1H projected score	NIA 32.5 · HOW 31.8	NIA 37 · HOW 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NIA LWWLL	2-3	40%	—	1-3
HOW LLWL	1-3	25%	—	1-2

Venue/role: NIA neutral site, as underdog; HOW neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIA OUUOU	2-3	40%	2-3
HOW UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIAlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
HOWlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Niagara

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DUQ	L 63-83	+17.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 8	@BING	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 10	vsDSU	W 68-57	-5.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 17	@LEM	L 68-74	+2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 142
Nov 21	@DUKE	L 42-100	+39.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

−2.5

BING

W 67-59

+10.5

DSU

W 68-57

+5.5

LEM

L 68-74

−3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−18.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

+6.5

BING

W 67-59

−12.5

DSU

W 68-57

−12.5

LEM

L 68-74

+3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−4.5

over 2under 3avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Howard

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −14.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMIZ	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 9	vsGRAM	L 70-73	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 13	vsALCN	W 72-64	-6.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 19	@STET	L 60-64	-1.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−0.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−7.5

ALCN

W 72-64

+1.5

STET

L 60-64

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−3.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−9.5

ALCN

W 72-64

−18.5

STET

L 60-64

−25.5

over 0under 4avg −14.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Niagara Purple Eagles vs Howard Bison

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Niagara

Howard

Niagara

Howard