Northeastern Huskies vs Duquesne Dukes: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 4:00 PM ETLeBron James Arena · Neutral site

#229NENortheastern93▲ winner

Final

#107DUQDuquesne86final

Closing lineDUQ -7.5✓ NE covered by 14.5

Closing total147.5Over by 31.5

Season records: Northeastern and Duquesne
NE	This season	DUQ
2-3	Record	4-1
2-3	ATS	2-3
2-3	O/U	5-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NE 73–80 DUQ · ✗ DUQ (73%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NE	41	52	93
DUQ	38	48	86

1st half: NE 41, DUQ 38 (NE by 3). The model had DUQ by 4.0 and a total of 71.4 (actual 79).

Team stats

NE		DUQ
32-58 55%	Field goals	32-59 54%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	5-13 38%
24-30 80%	Free throws	17-25 68%
36 9 off	Rebounds	27 5 off
15	Assists	14
12	Steals	15
8	Blocks	1
21	Turnovers	19
20	Fouls	24
48	Points in paint	50
15	Fast-break points	16

Players

NE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xander Alarie F	36	5	6	3	1-5	0-1
William Kermoury G	23	13	3	3	3-6	2-4
Luca Soroa Schaller F	21	4	4	1	1-4	0-1
Miles Newton G	13	4	2	2	2-3	0-1
Youri Fritz F	9	7	2	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Haris Elezovic F	28	17	10	1	8-12	1-3
Xavier Abreu G	26	32	5	2	11-17	1-4
Mike Loughnane G	25	6	1	2	2-4	0-2
JB Frankel G	12	5	0	1	1-3	1-3
Petar Pinter C	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ryan Williams, LA Pratt, Ty Francis, Liam Koelsch

DUQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jimmie Williams G	31	17	1	2	7-11	1-3
Cam Crawford G	30	11	2	2	4-6	2-2
Tarence Guinyard G	30	19	3	3	6-9	1-2
John Hugley IV F	29	18	6	3	6-13	0-2
Jakub Necas F	23	14	5	0	6-6	0-0
Bench
Alex Williams F	16	3	5	1	1-4	1-3
David Dixon F	15	4	2	1	2-5	0-0
Brandon Hall G	12	0	0	1	0-2	0-1
Dom Aekins G	10	0	2	1	0-3	0-0
Stef van Bussel C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Seamus McDermott, Ethan Anish, Lucas Prolla, Jake DiMichele, Frederik Jellum, Lazar Milosevic, Arness Lawson, Maximus Edwards

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DUQ -7.5	DUQ -6.9	NE +0.6	W NE covered
Total	147.5	152.5	Over 5.0	W Over
Projected score	—	NE 72.8 · DUQ 79.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DUQ -4.0	NE -3.0
1H total	71.4	79
1H projected score	NE 33.7 · DUQ 37.7	NE 41 · DUQ 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NE LWWLL	2-3	40%	—	2-1
DUQ WLLWL	2-3	40%	—	1-3

Venue/role: NE neutral site, as underdog; DUQ neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE OUUOU	2-3	40%	2-3
DUQ OOOOO	5-0	100%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NElast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
DUQlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	5-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NE 1–0 DUQNE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NE 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 19, 2021-22	NE 71 vs DUQ 55	DUQ -2	NE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northeastern

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBU	L 75-76	-2.5	L −3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@COLG	W 68-65	+5.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	@HARV	W 77-60	+5.5	W +22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUVM	L 74-85	-1.5	L −12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 20	@PRIN	L 57-70	+2.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 75-76

−3.5

COLG

W 68-65

+8.5

HARV

W 77-60

+22.5

UVM

L 74-85

−12.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 75-76

+8.5

COLG

W 68-65

−14.5

HARV

W 77-60

−7.5

UVM

L 74-85

+24.5

PRIN

L 57-70

−18.5

over 2under 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Duquesne

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-0

100% overs · avg +11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-0100%

O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNIA	W 83-63	-17.5	W +2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsSHU	W 92-80	-12.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 11	vsQUC	W 87-81	-12.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	@VILL	L 77-87	+10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 164
Nov 19	vsL-MD	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIA

W 83-63

+2.5

SHU

W 92-80

−0.5

QUC

W 87-81

−6.5

VILL

L 77-87

+0.5

L-MD

W 92-78

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIA

W 83-63

+6.5

SHU

W 92-80

+14.5

QUC

W 87-81

+5.5

VILL

L 77-87

+12.5

L-MD

W 92-78

+19.5

over 5under 0avg +11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northeastern Huskies vs Duquesne Dukes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Northeastern

Duquesne

Northeastern

Duquesne