NCAAB

Monday, December 1, 2025

Day in numbers11 finalFavorites 3-8 ATS5 upsetsO/U 5-6Model Favorite 5-6Open
Games1111 final · 0 to play
Lines moved81+ pt since the open · 11 with a line
Totals moved101+ pt since the open
Favorites ATS3-827% covered
Upsets5outright
Over / Under5-645% over
Model Favorite5-645% won
GameSpread, open → closeMovedTotalMoved
TAR @ CINCIN -17.5 → CIN -24.57 → CIN145.5 → 142.5▼ 3
IONA @ DELIONA -1.5 → IONA -1.5no move158.5 → 149.5▼ 9
MCN @ UIWMCN -7.5 → MCN -10.53 → MCN149.5 → 145.5▼ 4
PORT @ STANSTAN -16.5 → STAN -19.53 → STAN156.5 → 156.5no move
UAB @ MTSUUAB -3.5 → UAB -1.52 → MTSU156.5 → 153.5▼ 3
CBU @ COLOCOLO -11.5 → COLO -13.52 → COLO147.5 → 150.5▲ 3
WGA @ TROYTROY -16.5 → TROY -17.51 → TROY149.5 → 150.5▲ 1
UNA @ JXSTJXST -5.5 → JXST -6.51 → JXST136.5 → 134.5▼ 2
BGSU @ KSUKSU -13.5 → KSU -12.51 → BGSU160.5 → 159.5▼ 1
TEM @ VILLVILL -14.5 → VILL -14.5no move148.5 → 146.5▼ 2
Top 10 of 11; the Line move and Total move filters show the rest. Biggest moves since the open, in points. A move says where the market went, not where it should have.
Line movedCoveredCover rate
1+ pts5579-5698-549%
2+ pts2172-2236-249%
3+ pts880-90849%
5+ pts139-14948%
Did the side the line moved toward cover the closing number? Since 2023-24, when ESPN's opening lines begin. A break-even bet at standard prices needs 52.4%.
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FinalNon-conference
Temple
4-3 · #111
56
Villanova
5-1 · #32
74
Spread
VILL -14.5
✓ VILL W ATS
Total
146.5 ▼2
▼ Under 130
Projected
69–85
✓ VILL won
Model: VILL by 0.7 ✓ Model: Over 7.5 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNon-conference
West Georgia
3-3 · #298
93
Troy
4-4 · #147
89
Spread
TROY -17.5
✓ WGA W ATS
Total
150.5 ▲1
▲ Over 182
Projected
73–86
✗ TROY lost
Model: WGA by 4.1 ✓ Model: Over 8.0 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNon-conference
Iona
5-2 · #233
89
Delaware
2-3 · #206
66
Spread
IONA -1.5
✓ IONA W ATS
Total
149.5 ▼9
▲ Over 155
Projected
78–79
✗ DEL lost
Model: DEL by 3.0 ✗ Model: Over 7.8 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNon-conference
North Alabama
1-4 · #292
73
Jax State
1-3 · #198
66
Spread
JXST -6.5
✓ UNA W ATS
Total
134.5 ▼2
▲ Over 139
Projected
68–73
✗ JXST lost
Model: UNA by 1.8 ✓ Model: Over 5.9 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNon-conference
Tarleton St
3-3 · #185
58
Cincinnati
5-2 · #30
76
Spread
CIN -24.5
✓ TAR W ATS
Total
142.5 ▼3
▼ Under 134
Projected
66–80
✓ CIN won
Model: TAR by 10.4 ✓ Model: Over 2.9 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNon-conference
Saint Francis Red Wolves
0-6 · #88
74
Xavier
5-3 · #49
96
Spread
XAV -27.5
✓ SFPA W ATS
Total
152.5 ▲1
▲ Over 170
Projected
61–88
✓ XAV won
Model: SFPA by 0.4 ✓ Model: Under 2.9 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNon-conference
UAB
5-2 · #102
61
MTSU
2-3 · #154
76
Spread
UAB -1.5
✓ MTSU W ATS
Total
153.5 ▼3
▼ Under 137
Projected
81–78
✗ UAB lost
Model: UAB by 1.1 ✗ Model: Over 5.1 ✗
Game card ›
FinalConference
McNeese
4-1 · #127
67
Incarnate Word
1-3 · #289
71
Spread
MCN -10.5
✓ UIW W ATS
Total
145.5 ▼4
▼ Under 138
Projected
78–69
✗ MCN lost
Model: UIW by 1.5 ✓ Model: Over 2.3 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNon-conference
Bowling Green
4-2 · #200
82
Kansas St
5-2 · #83
66
Spread
KSU -12.5
✓ BGSU W ATS
Total
159.5 ▼1
▼ Under 148
Projected
72–86
✗ KSU lost
Model: KSU by 1.3 ✗ Model: Under 1.2 ✓
Game card ›
FinalNon-conference
CA Baptist
7-0 · #203
70
Colorado
7-0 · #65
78
Spread
COLO -13.5
✓ CBU W ATS
Total
150.5 ▲3
▼ Under 148
Projected
71–82
✓ COLO won
Model: CBU by 2.1 ✓ Model: Over 2.3 ✗
Game card ›
FinalNon-conference
Portland
4-3 · #169
72
Stanford
6-1 · #85
94
Spread
STAN -19.5
✓ STAN W ATS
Total
156.5
▲ Over 166
Projected
70–86
✓ STAN won
Model: PORT by 2.9 ✗ Model: Under 0.7 ✗
Game card ›
StatusMatchupSpreadTotalModel lineSpread edgeModel totalTotal edgeWin probModel
Final
Temple
4-3 · #111
56
Villanova
5-1 · #32
74
 VILL -14.5 146.5 VILL -15.2 VILL +0.7 154.0 Over 7.5 91% VILL W L ›
Final
West Georgia
3-3 · #298
93
Troy
4-4 · #147
89
 TROY -17.5 150.5 TROY -13.4 WGA +4.1 158.5 Over 8.0 88% TROY W W ›
Final
Iona
5-2 · #233
89
Delaware
2-3 · #206
66
 IONA -1.5 149.5 DEL -1.5 DEL +3.0 157.3 Over 7.8 55% DEL L W ›
Final
North Alabama
1-4 · #292
73
Jax State
1-3 · #198
66
 JXST -6.5 134.5 JXST -4.7 UNA +1.8 140.4 Over 5.9 66% JXST W W ›
Final
Tarleton St
3-3 · #185
58
Cincinnati
5-2 · #30
76
 CIN -24.5 142.5 CIN -14.1 TAR +10.4 145.4 Over 2.9 89% CIN W L ›
Final
Saint Francis Red Wolves
0-6 · #88
74
Xavier
5-3 · #49
96
 XAV -27.5 152.5 XAV -27.1 SFPA +0.4 149.6 Under 2.9 99% XAV W L ›
Final
UAB
5-2 · #102
61
MTSU
2-3 · #154
76
 UAB -1.5 153.5 UAB -2.6 UAB +1.1 158.6 Over 5.1 59% UAB L L ›
Final
McNeese
4-1 · #127
67
Incarnate Word
1-3 · #289
71
 MCN -10.5 145.5 MCN -9.0 UIW +1.5 147.8 Over 2.3 79% MCN W L ›
Final
Bowling Green
4-2 · #200
82
Kansas St
5-2 · #83
66
 KSU -12.5 159.5 KSU -13.8 KSU +1.3 158.3 Under 1.2 89% KSU L W ›
Final
CA Baptist
7-0 · #203
70
Colorado
7-0 · #65
78
 COLO -13.5 150.5 COLO -11.4 CBU +2.1 152.8 Over 2.3 84% COLO W L ›
Final
Portland
4-3 · #169
72
Stanford
6-1 · #85
94
 STAN -19.5 156.5 STAN -16.6 PORT +2.9 155.8 Under 0.7 93% STAN L L ›
The # beside a record is the team’s power rank today, from the Rankings; AP is the poll. Spread is the market line (the favorite shows the minus). Model line and Model edge are from the model, never the market. Lines are pre-tip-off: after tip-off a tile shows the closing line. Model record