Tarleton State Texans at Cincinnati Bearcats: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 1, 7:00 PM ETFifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati

Final

#30CINCincinnati76▲ winner

Closing lineCIN -24.5✓ TAR covered by 6.5

Closing total142.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Tarleton St and Cincinnati
TAR	This season	CIN
3-3	Record	5-2
5-1	ATS	2-5
5-1	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TAR 66–80 CIN · ✓ CIN (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TAR	29	29	58
CIN	31	45	76

1st half: TAR 29, CIN 31 (CIN by 2). The model had CIN by 8.4 and a total of 68.1 (actual 60).

Team stats

TAR		CIN
21-51 41%	Field goals	26-56 46%
8-20 40%	3-pointers	15-36 42%
8-14 57%	Free throws	9-15 60%
23 5 off	Rebounds	38 14 off
10	Assists	16
9	Steals	9
1	Blocks	7
19	Turnovers	21
15	Fouls	15
20	Points in paint	18
4	Fast-break points	2

Players

TAR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Mizell G	40	4	3	2	2-4	0-0
Kaia Isaac G	37	13	5	2	6-11	1-4
Ocypher Owens F	36	16	6	4	5-14	2-4
Freddy Hicks G	33	12	2	1	3-6	2-3
Leroy Kelly IV G	20	5	1	0	2-5	1-4
Bench
Kade Douglas G	27	8	1	1	3-9	2-4
Damion Porter Jr. G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Cameron Thomas G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Matyas Vrabel F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Malek Archie, Chris Mpaka, Roy Marom, Andy Sigiscar, Cam McDowell, AJ Dent, Dior Johnson, Daniel Dormu, Joseph Martinez, Jaden Jinks

CIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Day Day Thomas G	33	19	5	6	6-14	5-11
Kerr Kriisa G	30	20	1	3	7-12	6-11
Baba Miller F	29	13	11	3	4-6	0-1
Moustapha Thiam C	22	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Shon Abaev F	20	10	7	2	4-10	1-4
Bench
Sencire Harris G	27	6	3	1	2-6	1-4
Jalen Celestine G	17	6	1	0	2-5	2-5
Tyler McKinley F	16	2	4	0	1-2	0-0
Keyshuan Tillery G	4	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Grant Darbyshire G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bryson Buckingham, Lucas Atauri, Halvine Dzellat, Jalen Haynes

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CIN -24.5	CIN -14.1	TAR +10.4	W TAR covered
Total	142.5	145.4	Over 2.9	L Under
Projected score	—	TAR 65.7 · CIN 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CIN -8.4	CIN -2.0
1H total	68.1	60
1H projected score	TAR 29.9 · CIN 38.2	TAR 29 · CIN 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TAR LWWWW	5-1	83%	3-1	3-1
CIN WLLLL	2-5	29%	2-4	2-4

Venue/role: TAR away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TAR OOUOO	5-1	83%	3-3
CIN UUUOU	2-5	29%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TARlast 6	3-3 50%	5-1 83%	5-1 83%
CINlast 7	5-2 71%	2-5 29%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tarleton St

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +15.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-183%

W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMU	L 76-96	+21.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 172
Nov 5	@LSU	L 60-96	+15.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 8	vsAMCC	W 85-77	-3.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsMRMK	W 76-62	-4.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 14	@BAY	L 81-94	+23.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 175
Nov 20	@RICE	W 90-74	+4.5	W +20.5	146.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMU

L 76-96

+1.5

LSU

L 60-96

−20.5

AMCC

W 85-77

+4.5

MRMK

W 76-62

+9.5

BAY

L 81-94

+10.5

RICE

W 90-74

+20.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMU

L 76-96

+27.5

LSU

L 60-96

+7.5

AMCC

W 85-77

+19.5

MRMK

W 76-62

−4.5

BAY

L 81-94

+25.5

RICE

W 90-74

+17.5

over 5under 1avg +15.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cincinnati

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −8.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWCU	W 94-63	-22.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsGAST	W 74-64	-29.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 11	vsDAY	W 74-62	-5.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 16	vsMSM	W 72-55	-25.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 21	vsLOU	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	163.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsNJIT	W 94-67	-34.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsEMU	L 56-64	-22.5	L −30.5	146.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WCU

W 94-63

+8.5

GAST

W 74-64

−19.5

DAY

W 74-62

+6.5

MSM

W 72-55

−8.5

LOU

L 64-74

−1.5

NJIT

W 94-67

−7.5

EMU

L 56-64

−30.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WCU

W 94-63

+13.5

GAST

W 74-64

−13.5

DAY

W 74-62

−11.5

MSM

W 72-55

−18.5

LOU

L 64-74

−25.5

NJIT

W 94-67

+19.5

EMU

L 56-64

−26.5

over 2under 5avg −8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tarleton State Texans at Cincinnati Bearcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Tarleton St

Cincinnati

Tarleton St

Cincinnati