Merrimack Warriors at Tarleton State Texans: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ETWisdom Gym · at Tarleton St

#225MRMKMerrimack62final

Final

#185TARTarleton St76▲ winner

Closing lineTAR -4.5✓ TAR covered by 9.5

Closing total142.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Merrimack and Tarleton St
MRMK	This season	TAR
0-2	Record	1-2
0-2	ATS	2-1
1-1	O/U	3-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MRMK 69–74 TAR · ✓ TAR (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MRMK	31	31	62
TAR	34	42	76

1st half: MRMK 31, TAR 34 (TAR by 3). The model had TAR by 2.7 and a total of 67.0 (actual 65).

Team stats

MRMK		TAR
19-58 33%	Field goals	28-57 49%
5-28 18%	3-pointers	2-11 18%
19-24 79%	Free throws	18-25 72%
34 16 off	Rebounds	39 13 off
7	Assists	12
5	Steals	10
2	Blocks	8
21	Turnovers	17
21	Fouls	19
28	Points in paint	44
9	Fast-break points	13

Players

MRMK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ernest Shelton G	36	20	3	0	6-14	3-9
Tye Dorset G	36	2	3	3	1-10	0-8
Kevair Kennedy G	28	12	7	2	2-9	0-1
Todd Brogna F	21	5	4	1	1-2	1-2
Andrés Marrero G	18	5	1	0	1-6	0-5
Bench
Aliou Cisse F	17	7	5	0	3-7	1-2
Dylan Veillette F	15	2	2	1	1-4	0-1
Malik Edmead G	11	7	1	0	3-5	0-0
KC Ugwuakazi F	9	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jaylen Stinson G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Brendan Johnson G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jacob Moore, David Munro, Quinn Kwasniak, Brandon Legris

TAR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Mizell G	35	6	2	2	3-5	0-0
Freddy Hicks G	34	18	3	5	5-11	0-0
Chris Mpaka F	30	24	9	0	10-12	0-0
Kaia Isaac G	18	4	1	2	2-4	0-1
Leroy Kelly IV G	4	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Cam McDowell G	28	2	8	0	1-6	0-2
Dior Johnson G	21	6	1	2	2-5	1-3
Kade Douglas G	14	8	1	0	3-9	1-5
Andy Sigiscar F	13	6	4	1	1-1	0-0
Ocypher Owens F	2	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Cameron Thomas G	1	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Jaden Jinks, Damion Porter Jr., Daniel Dormu, AJ Dent, Roy Marom, Joseph Martinez, Matyas Vrabel, Malek Archie

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TAR -4.5	TAR -4.8	TAR +0.3	W TAR covered
Total	142.5	143.0	Over 0.5	L Under
Projected score	—	MRMK 69.1 · TAR 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TAR -2.7	TAR -3.0
1H total	67.0	65
1H projected score	MRMK 32.1 · TAR 34.9	MRMK 31 · TAR 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRMK LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
TAR WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MRMK away, as underdog; TAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRMK UO	1-1	50%	0-2
TAR OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRMKlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
TARlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Merrimack

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

over 1under 1avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tarleton St

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +18.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMU	L 76-96	+21.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 172
Nov 5	@LSU	L 60-96	+15.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 8	vsAMCC	W 85-77	-3.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMU

L 76-96

+1.5

LSU

L 60-96

−20.5

AMCC

W 85-77

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMU

L 76-96

+27.5

LSU

L 60-96

+7.5

AMCC

W 85-77

+19.5

over 3under 0avg +18.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Merrimack Warriors at Tarleton State Texans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Merrimack

Tarleton St

Merrimack

Tarleton St