Saint Francis Red Wolves at Xavier Musketeers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 1, 7:00 PM ETCintas Center · at Xavier

Final

#49XAVXavier96▲ winner

Closing lineXAV -27.5✓ SFPA covered by 5.5

Closing total152.5Over by 17.5

Season records: Saint Francis Red Wolves and Xavier
SFPA	This season	XAV
0-6	Record	5-3
1-5	ATS	4-4
2-4	O/U	3-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SFPA 61–88 XAV · ✓ XAV (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SFPA	33	41	74
XAV	44	52	96

1st half: SFPA 33, XAV 44 (XAV by 11). The model had XAV by 16.2 and a total of 70.0 (actual 77).

Team stats

SFPA		XAV
27-61 44%	Field goals	38-77 49%
8-22 36%	3-pointers	10-32 31%
12-15 80%	Free throws	10-15 67%
34 6 off	Rebounds	43 14 off
21	Assists	23
5	Steals	7
2	Blocks	4
15	Turnovers	8
15	Fouls	14
28	Points in paint	48
5	Fast-break points	29

Players

SFPA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Skylar Wicks G	36	19	8	6	7-16	1-4
Zion Russell G	32	15	8	5	6-13	2-3
Gestin Liberis F	27	10	5	0	4-7	0-1
Victor Payne Jr. G	22	5	1	1	2-4	1-3
KJ Swain Jr. G	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Ralph Martino Jr. G	24	9	1	3	2-2	1-1
Ahmad Harrison G	15	5	1	1	2-6	1-1
Brandon Russell G	13	3	1	4	1-3	1-3
Cameron Tweedy F	13	2	3	1	1-2	0-0
Trey Weiand G	7	4	0	0	1-3	1-3
Paris Papadatos G	4	2	1	0	1-4	0-2

Did not play: Brandon Rabish, Kofi Asare, Kam Wylie, Melvin Weaver III, Chris Moncrief, Carson Rhodes, Ryen Gresko

XAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tre Carroll F	30	21	6	4	9-15	2-6
Filip Borovicanin F	29	6	8	1	3-9	0-3
Malik Messina-Moore G	27	6	5	7	2-6	0-2
Jovan Milicevic F	24	3	5	2	1-7	0-3
All Wright G	24	15	2	3	6-12	1-4
Bench
Roddie Anderson G	25	28	5	5	10-16	5-9
Isaiah Walker G	19	10	1	0	4-7	2-4
Anthony Robinson F	14	5	5	0	2-3	0-0
Pape N'Diaye F	5	0	2	1	0-1	0-1
Mier Panoam G	4	2	2	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Kason Westphal, Michael Wolf, Gabriel Pozzato, Luke Naser, Henry Thole, Ian Sabourin

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	XAV -27.5	XAV -27.1	SFPA +0.4	W SFPA covered
Total	152.5	149.6	Under 2.9	L Over
Projected score	—	SFPA 61.2 · XAV 88.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	XAV -16.2	XAV -11.0
1H total	70.0	77
1H projected score	SFPA 26.9 · XAV 43.1	SFPA 33 · XAV 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SFPA LLLLW	1-5	17%	0-3	1-5
XAV LWWWW	4-4	50%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: SFPA away, as underdog; XAV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SFPA OUUUU	2-4	33%	0-6
XAV UOUOO	3-5	38%	5-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFPAlast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
XAVlast 8	5-3 63%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Francis Red Wolves

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OU	L 66-102	+31.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 6	@TCU	L 63-104	+27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 11	vsMSM	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 18	@LEH	L 62-79	+10.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsBEL	L 57-94	+21.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTROY	L 64-74	+21.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 66-102

−4.5

TCU

L 63-104

−13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−1.5

LEH

L 62-79

−6.5

BEL

L 57-94

−15.5

TROY

L 64-74

+11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 66-102

+18.5

TCU

L 63-104

+13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−9.5

LEH

L 62-79

−10.5

BEL

L 57-94

−6.5

TROY

L 64-74

−13.5

over 2under 4avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Xavier

8 games played

Straight up

5-3

63% wins

Against the spread

4-4

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-5

38% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-363%

W W L L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-450%

L L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-538%

U U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsODU	W 99-69	-10.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsUGA	L 77-78	+10.5	W +9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsWVU	W 78-68	+5.5	W +15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsAMCC	W 88-67	-13.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

ODU

W 99-69

+19.5

UGA

L 77-78

+9.5

WVU

W 78-68

+15.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 4avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

ODU

W 99-69

+17.5

UGA

L 77-78

−10.5

WVU

W 78-68

+5.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+8.5

over 3under 5avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Francis Red Wolves @ Xavier

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Francis Red Wolves

Xavier

Saint Francis Red Wolves

Xavier