Saint Francis Red Wolves at Lehigh Mountain Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETStabler Arena · at Lehigh

Final

#216LEHLehigh79▲ winner

Closing lineLEH -10.5✓ LEH covered by 6.5

Closing total151.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Saint Francis Red Wolves and Lehigh
SFPA	This season	LEH
0-3	Record	0-3
0-3	ATS	2-1
2-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SFPA 67–81 LEH · ✓ LEH (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SFPA	32	30	62
LEH	43	36	79

1st half: SFPA 32, LEH 43 (LEH by 11). The model had LEH by 8.3 and a total of 69.4 (actual 75).

Team stats

SFPA		LEH
24-59 41%	Field goals	27-57 47%
5-16 31%	3-pointers	8-24 33%
9-13 69%	Free throws	17-26 65%
33 10 off	Rebounds	37 11 off
8	Assists	16
12	Steals	12
4	Blocks	6
18	Turnovers	15
23	Fouls	15
30	Points in paint	30
5	Fast-break points	15

Players

SFPA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zion Russell G	34	11	6	5	4-12	0-2
Skylar Wicks G	32	24	12	3	9-16	3-4
Ahmad Harrison G	26	11	2	0	5-10	1-2
Victor Payne Jr. G	23	0	4	0	0-3	0-3
Cameron Tweedy F	22	5	2	0	2-5	0-0
Bench
Brandon Russell G	18	4	1	0	1-5	0-2
Ralph Martino Jr. G	18	5	2	0	2-3	1-1
Gestin Liberis F	15	2	0	0	1-4	0-1
KJ Swain Jr. G	10	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Trey Weiand G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Melvin Weaver III G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Carson Rhodes, Ryen Gresko, Chris Moncrief, Paris Papadatos, Kam Wylie, Kofi Asare, Brandon Rabish

LEH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joshua Ingram G	35	10	8	4	3-8	1-4
Nasir Whitlock G	34	23	3	1	8-17	2-4
Peter Kramer G	31	12	2	0	3-7	3-7
Caleb Thomas G	24	6	3	2	2-7	0-3
Hank Alvey C	24	12	7	4	4-5	0-0
Bench
Jalen Vazquez G	26	4	3	4	2-5	0-2
Alfredo Addesa F	16	12	4	1	5-7	2-4
Henri Adiassa C	5	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Jake Pike F	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Tommy Conniff C	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Brendan Reed G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Edouard Benoit, Andrew Urosevic, Caesar Burrows, Bube Momah

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LEH -10.5	LEH -14.0	LEH +3.5	W LEH covered
Total	151.5	148.1	Under 3.4	W Under
Projected score	—	SFPA 67 · LEH 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LEH -8.3	LEH -11.0
1H total	69.4	75
1H projected score	SFPA 30.5 · LEH 38.8	SFPA 32 · LEH 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SFPA LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3
LEH WLW	2-1	67%	—	—

Venue/role: SFPA away, as underdog; LEH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SFPA OOU	2-1	67%	0-3
LEH UUO	1-2	33%	0-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFPAlast 3	0-3 0%	0-3 0%	2-1 67%
LEHlast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SFPA 3–1 LEHSFPA leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · SFPA has won the last 2 meetings · SFPA 3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2024-25	LEH 78 @ SFPA 88	SFPA +4.5	SFPA W
Nov 29, 2023-24	SFPA 62 @ LEH 61	LEH -15.5	SFPA W
Nov 21, 2022-23	LEH 82 @ SFPA 76	SFPA -1.5	LEH W
Nov 28, 2021-22	SFPA 79 @ LEH 68	LEH -3.5	SFPA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Francis Red Wolves

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OU	L 66-102	+31.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 6	@TCU	L 63-104	+27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 11	vsMSM	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 66-102

−4.5

TCU

L 63-104

−13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−1.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 66-102

+18.5

TCU

L 63-104

+13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−9.5

over 2under 1avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lehigh

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOU	L 57-75	+36.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 9	@WVU	L 47-69	+17.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 14	@RUTG	L 72-84	+18.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 57-75

+18.5

WVU

L 47-69

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-84

+6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 57-75

−4.5

WVU

L 47-69

−23.5

RUTG

L 72-84

+19.5

over 1under 2avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Francis Red Wolves at Lehigh Mountain Hawks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Francis Red Wolves

Lehigh

Saint Francis Red Wolves

Lehigh