Saint Francis Red Wolves vs Troy Trojans: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 11:00 AM ETAlico Arena · Neutral site

Final

#147TROYTroy74▲ winner

Closing lineTROY -21.5✓ SFPA covered by 11.5

Closing total151.5Under by 13.5

Season records: Saint Francis Red Wolves and Troy
SFPA	This season	TROY
0-5	Record	3-4
0-5	ATS	4-3
2-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SFPA 70–90 TROY · ✓ TROY (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SFPA	33	31	64
TROY	28	46	74

1st half: SFPA 33, TROY 28 (SFPA by 5). The model had TROY by 12.0 and a total of 75.0 (actual 61).

Team stats

SFPA		TROY
22-55 40%	Field goals	25-54 46%
8-22 36%	3-pointers	5-23 22%
12-16 75%	Free throws	19-30 63%
32 11 off	Rebounds	38 14 off
8	Assists	11
9	Steals	11
1	Blocks	2
22	Turnovers	19
22	Fouls	20
18	Points in paint	40
9	Fast-break points	10

Players

SFPA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Skylar Wicks G	38	21	9	3	7-15	2-5
Victor Payne Jr. G	33	15	2	1	5-10	3-8
Zion Russell G	32	11	4	1	4-7	2-2
Ahmad Harrison G	28	4	3	1	1-7	0-3
Gestin Liberis F	26	6	6	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Ralph Martino Jr. G	16	5	2	0	2-3	1-1
Cameron Tweedy F	14	2	2	2	1-5	0-0
Brandon Russell G	11	0	3	0	0-3	0-3
KJ Swain Jr. G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Melvin Weaver III, Paris Papadatos, Kam Wylie, Kofi Asare, Brandon Rabish, Trey Weiand, Carson Rhodes, Ryen Gresko, Chris Moncrief

TROY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Thomas Dowd F	34	18	11	1	5-8	3-5
Cooper Campbell G	32	5	4	4	0-3	0-2
Cobi Campbell G	29	11	1	1	5-13	1-6
Theo Seng F	25	9	5	1	3-6	0-1
Kerrington Kiel F	17	4	2	0	1-5	0-4
Bench
Victor Valdes F	23	14	4	3	6-11	0-2
Jerrell Bellamy C	18	10	4	0	4-6	0-1
Austin Cross G	17	3	3	1	1-2	1-2
Javen Colbert G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Corbin Green F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Hikaru Awata, Javier Gilgeous-Glasgow, Emmanuel Clarton, Evan Griffin, Kameryn Mitchell

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TROY -21.5	TROY -20.2	SFPA +1.3	W SFPA covered
Total	151.5	160.2	Over 8.7	L Under
Projected score	—	SFPA 70 · TROY 90.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TROY -12.0	SFPA -5.0
1H total	75.0	61
1H projected score	SFPA 31.5 · TROY 43.5	SFPA 33 · TROY 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SFPA LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-1	0-5
TROY LLWWL	4-3	57%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: SFPA neutral site, as underdog; TROY neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SFPA OOUUU	2-3	40%	0-5
TROY UOOOU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFPAlast 5	0-5 0%	0-5 0%	2-3 40%
TROYlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Francis Red Wolves

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −8.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OU	L 66-102	+31.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 6	@TCU	L 63-104	+27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 11	vsMSM	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 18	@LEH	L 62-79	+10.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsBEL	L 57-94	+21.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 66-102

−4.5

TCU

L 63-104

−13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−1.5

LEH

L 62-79

−6.5

BEL

L 57-94

−15.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 66-102

+18.5

TCU

L 63-104

+13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−9.5

LEH

L 62-79

−10.5

BEL

L 57-94

−6.5

over 2under 3avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Troy

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +23.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KENT	W 103-97	+3.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 200
Nov 7	@FUR	W 64-61	+2.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 125
Nov 14	@LMU	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 16	@CSUN	L 85-94	-4.5	L −13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 18	@SDSU	W 108-107	+14.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 20	@USC	L 106-107	+18.5	W +17.5	159.5	O 213
Nov 24	vsTOL	L 68-75	-2.5	L −9.5	159.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+9.5

FUR

W 64-61

+5.5

LMU

L 63-74

−6.5

CSUN

L 85-94

−13.5

SDSU

W 108-107

+15.5

USC

L 106-107

+17.5

TOL

L 68-75

−9.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+57.5

FUR

W 64-61

−27.5

LMU

L 63-74

−3.5

CSUN

L 85-94

+21.5

SDSU

W 108-107

+77.5

USC

L 106-107

+53.5

TOL

L 68-75

−16.5

over 4under 3avg +23.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Francis Red Wolves vs Troy Trojans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Francis Red Wolves

Troy

Saint Francis Red Wolves

Troy