Bowling Green Falcons vs VMI Keydets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 11:00 AM ETSuncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site

#200BGSUBowling Green81▲ winner

Final

#320VMIVMI48final

Closing lineBGSU -11.5✓ BGSU covered by 21.5

Closing total148.5Under by 19.5

Season records: Bowling Green and VMI
BGSU	This season	VMI
3-2	Record	1-5
3-2	ATS	1-5
1-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BGSU 82–70 VMI · ✓ BGSU (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BGSU	45	36	81
VMI	20	28	48

1st half: BGSU 45, VMI 20 (BGSU by 25). The model had BGSU by 7.0 and a total of 71.2 (actual 65).

Team stats

BGSU		VMI
30-64 47%	Field goals	10-50 20%
10-26 38%	3-pointers	3-28 11%
11-15 73%	Free throws	25-32 78%
51 20 off	Rebounds	29 13 off
20	Assists	3
6	Steals	8
2	Blocks	3
16	Turnovers	14
23	Fouls	18
36	Points in paint	14
15	Fast-break points	11

Players

BGSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javon Ruffin G	27	8	3	2	2-6	2-6
Sam Towns F	25	12	18	2	4-11	1-1
Javontae Campbell G	23	8	2	3	4-6	0-2
Justin Thomas G	21	0	5	2	0-2	0-1
Troy Glover II F	18	11	5	1	5-7	0-0
Bench
Mayar Wol F	23	21	2	1	8-11	5-7
Josiah Shackelford G	17	12	3	2	4-7	2-4
Makhi Leach G	16	4	2	2	2-4	0-2
Jason Kimbrough G	12	0	0	5	0-4	0-2
Camden Karel F	12	3	3	0	0-3	0-0
Mohamed Maxamud F	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Alijah Adem G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Christian Dedivanaj G	2	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Aiden Goins, Preston Squire, Jaxon Pardon, Greg Spurgin

VMI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Johnson F	31	9	6	0	2-11	1-9
AJ Clark G	26	8	4	0	2-4	0-1
Tan Yildizoglu G	23	5	0	0	2-3	1-2
Linus Holmstrom G	22	11	4	0	2-6	1-5
Cal Liston F	15	2	1	0	0-3	0-3
Bench
Mario Tatum Jr. G	29	0	1	3	0-8	0-3
Kaden Stuckey F	20	0	5	0	0-0	0-0
Jaylen Pazon G	18	9	5	0	2-10	0-1
Walker Andrews G	12	4	0	0	0-4	0-4
Mason Hagedorn F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Alexander Daushvili, Mason Lawson, Branford Edmonds III, Robert Peters, Rickey Bradley Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BGSU -11.5	BGSU -11.4	VMI +0.1	L BGSU covered
Total	148.5	151.9	Over 3.4	L Under
Projected score	—	BGSU 81.7 · VMI 70.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BGSU -7.0	BGSU -25.0
1H total	71.2	65
1H projected score	BGSU 39.1 · VMI 32.1	BGSU 45 · VMI 20

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BGSU WWWLL	3-2	60%	0-1	2-2
VMI LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	0-4

Venue/role: BGSU neutral site, as favorite; VMI neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU UUOUU	1-4	20%	3-2
VMI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSUlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
VMIlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bowling Green

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-420%

U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXST	W 83-48	-5.5	W +29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 9	vsLEM	W 83-60	-11.5	W +11.5	154.5	U 143
Nov 15	@DAV	L 87-91	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 19	vsW&M	L 74-82	-8.5	L −16.5	167.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsBUCK	W 71-66	-10.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXST

W 83-48

+29.5

LEM

W 83-60

+11.5

DAV

L 87-91

+0.5

W&M

L 74-82

−16.5

BUCK

W 71-66

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXST

W 83-48

−15.5

LEM

W 83-60

−11.5

DAV

L 87-91

+33.5

W&M

L 74-82

−11.5

BUCK

W 71-66

−7.5

over 1under 4avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

VMI

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −9.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	@STET	L 80-99	-2.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsBUF	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

STET

L 80-99

−21.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

STET

L 80-99

+30.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

over 2under 4avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bowling Green Falcons vs VMI Keydets

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bowling Green

VMI

Bowling Green

VMI