Heritage Bank Center · Neutral site
Closing line
LOU -8.5✓ LOU covered by 1.5
LOU -8.5✓ LOU covered by 1.5Closing total163.5Under by 25.5
| LOU | This season | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 4-0 |
| 2-2 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | O/U | 1-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LOU 83–74 CIN · ✓ LOU (79%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 28 | 46 | 74 |
| CIN | 32 | 32 | 64 |
1st half: LOU 28, CIN 32 (CIN by 4). The model had LOU by 5.7 and a total of 73.3 (actual 60).
Team stats
| LOU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-56 38% | Field goals | 23-62 37% |
| 8-28 29% | 3-pointers | 8-29 28% |
| 24-28 86% | Free throws | 10-16 63% |
| 41 11 off | Rebounds | 38 11 off |
| 13 | Assists | 19 |
| 9 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 7 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 23 | Fouls | 19 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell G | 34 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 8-15 | 5-10 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 31 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 4-15 | 2-9 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 26 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Sananda Fru F | 23 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 20 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Adrian Wooley G | 20 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Khani Rooths F | 13 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Vangelis Zougris, Mouhamed Camara, Will Hanke, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg
| CIN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day Day Thomas G | 35 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 3-14 | 2-6 |
| Moustapha Thiam C | 27 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 5-7 | 0-1 |
| Shon Abaev F | 27 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-16 | 3-11 |
| Kerr Kriisa G | 25 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2-7 | 2-7 |
| Baba Miller F | 25 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sencire Harris G | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Celestine G | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Tyler McKinley F | 16 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Keyshuan Tillery G | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Lucas Atauri, Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer, Bryson Buckingham, Halvine Dzellat, Grant Darbyshire, Jalen Haynes
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -7.5
1 → LOU
CloseLOU -8.5
1 pt toward LOU
Total
Open162.5
▲ 1
Close163.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
LOU -500 · CIN +360
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -7.5 · closed LOU -8.5 · moved 1 toward LOUmodel LOU -9
model LOU -9
Opened 162.5 · closed 163.5 · moved 1 upmodel 156.5
model 156.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LOU -8.5 | LOU -9.1 | LOU +0.6 | W LOU covered |
| Total | 163.5 | 156.4 | Under 7.1 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | LOU 82.8 · CIN 73.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -5.7 | CIN -4.0 |
| 1H total | 73.3 | 60 |
| 1H projected score | LOU 39.5 · CIN 33.8 | LOU 28 · CIN 32 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOUlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 2-2 50% | 3-1 75% |
| CINlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 2-2 50% | 1-3 25% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LOU 0–1 CINCIN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LOU 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2022-23 | LOU 62 vs CIN 81 | CIN -8.5 | CIN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisville
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-1
75% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
SCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vs
JKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vs
UK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vs
OHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
over 3under 1avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cincinnati
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
WCU
WCUW 94-63
+8.5
7
vs
GAST
GASTW 74-64
−19.5
11
vs
DAY
DAYW 74-62
+6.5
16
vs
MSM
MSMW 72-55
−8.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+13.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−13.5
11
vsDAY
DAYW 74-62
−11.5
16
vsMSM
MSMW 72-55
−18.5
over 1under 3avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisville
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Ohio106–81
- Wvs Kentucky96–88
- Wvs Jackson St106–70
- Wvs SC State104–45
6 days since their last game.
Cincinnati
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Mount St Marys72–55
- Wvs Dayton74–62
- Wvs Georgia St74–64
- Wvs W Carolina94–63
5 days since their last game.