California Baptist Lancers at Colorado Buffaloes: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 1, 9:00 PM ETCU Events Center · at Colorado

Final

#65COLOColorado78▲ winner

Closing lineCOLO -13.5✓ CBU covered by 5.5

Closing total150.5Under by 2.5

Season records: CA Baptist and Colorado
CBU	This season	COLO
7-0	Record	7-0
4-3	ATS	5-2
2-5	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CBU 71–82 COLO · ✓ COLO (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CBU	34	36	70
COLO	32	46	78

1st half: CBU 34, COLO 32 (CBU by 2). The model had COLO by 6.8 and a total of 71.6 (actual 66).

Team stats

CBU		COLO
25-62 40%	Field goals	24-53 45%
2-13 15%	3-pointers	6-16 38%
18-24 75%	Free throws	24-31 77%
35 14 off	Rebounds	41 12 off
9	Assists	11
7	Steals	4
2	Blocks	6
11	Turnovers	10
23	Fouls	18
44	Points in paint	34
8	Fast-break points	20

Players

CBU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dominique Daniels Jr. G	40	25	5	3	7-19	1-5
Martel Williams G	37	14	5	1	6-13	0-2
Jordan Muller G	34	8	5	4	3-7	1-1
Devon Malcolm G	21	8	1	0	3-7	0-3
Thomas Ndong F	16	5	3	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Jonathan Griman F	25	8	0	0	3-6	0-2
Bradey Henige F	22	2	7	1	1-7	0-0
Monty Bowser G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Nate Garcia C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jalen Dollar G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Mouhamadou Dioum, Chase Mayo Harmon, Miles Daniels, Rene D'Amelio, OJ Blankson, Jayden Jackson

COLO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Barrington Hargress G	32	12	2	2	4-8	0-0
Sebastian Rancik F	30	12	5	0	3-7	2-3
Bangot Dak F	23	5	8	3	1-7	1-2
Felix Kossaras G	23	6	2	0	3-4	0-1
Elijah Malone C	12	6	2	0	3-6	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Johnson G	27	17	3	3	4-7	0-1
Alon Michaeli F	21	11	7	1	4-8	2-5
Josiah Sanders G	17	7	5	1	2-3	1-1
Jalin Holland G	14	2	2	1	0-2	0-2
Ian Inman G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jon Mani, Nick Randall, Tacko Ifaola, Leonardo Van Elswyk, Andrew Crawford

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLO -13.5	COLO -11.4	CBU +2.1	W CBU covered
Total	150.5	152.8	Over 2.3	L Under
Projected score	—	CBU 70.7 · COLO 82.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLO -6.8	CBU -2.0
1H total	71.6	66
1H projected score	CBU 32.4 · COLO 39.2	CBU 34 · COLO 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CBU LWLWW	4-3	57%	2-0	2-0
COLO WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-2	3-2

Venue/role: CBU away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CBU UUUUO	2-5	29%	7-0
COLO OOOUU	5-2	71%	7-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CBUlast 7	7-0 100%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
COLOlast 7	7-0 100%	5-2 71%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CA Baptist

7 games played

Straight up

7-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +4.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-0100%

W W W W W W W

7 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

L W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

O U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUPST	W 87-75	-14.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 7	@UCI	W 69-61	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 14	vsWIU	W 69-59	-15.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsUCR	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 137
Nov 21	vsGRAM	W 72-59	-14.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 25	vsUSD	W 76-61	-7.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 29	@ORST	W 75-69	+1.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

−2.5

UCI

W 69-61

+16.5

WIU

W 69-59

−5.5

UCR

W 80-57

+10.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−1.5

USD

W 76-61

+7.5

ORST

W 75-69

+7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

+9.5

UCI

W 69-61

−17.5

WIU

W 69-59

−12.5

UCR

W 80-57

−5.5

GRAM

W 72-59

−13.5

USD

W 76-61

−9.5

ORST

W 75-69

+6.5

over 2under 5avg −6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado

7 games played

Straight up

7-0

100% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +14.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-0100%

W W W W W W W

7 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-271%

O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMTST	W 84-78	-11.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Nov 8	vsEWU	W 102-97	-16.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 199
Nov 14	vsPROV	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 17	vsALST	W 94-66	-22.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUCD	W 95-79	-14.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 27	vsSF	W 79-69	+1.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 28	vsWASH	W 81-68	+2.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

−5.5

EWU

W 102-97

−11.5

PROV

W 97-88

+7.5

ALST

W 94-66

+5.5

UCD

W 95-79

+1.5

W 79-69

+11.5

WASH

W 81-68

+15.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

+13.5

EWU

W 102-97

+46.5

PROV

W 97-88

+21.5

ALST

W 94-66

+3.5

UCD

W 95-79

+21.5

W 79-69

−2.5

WASH

W 81-68

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

California Baptist Lancers at Colorado Buffaloes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

CA Baptist

Colorado

CA Baptist

Colorado