Washington Huskies vs Colorado Buffaloes: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 4:30 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

Final

#65COLOColorado81▲ winner

Closing lineWASH -2.5✓ COLO covered by 15.5

Closing total151.5Under by 2.5

Season records: Washington and Colorado
WASH	This season	COLO
5-1	Record	6-0
3-3	ATS	4-2
3-3	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WASH 82–80 COLO · ✗ WASH (58%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WASH	30	38	68
COLO	47	34	81

1st half: WASH 30, COLO 47 (COLO by 17). The model had WASH by 1.5 and a total of 75.9 (actual 77).

Team stats

WASH		COLO
23-69 33%	Field goals	25-54 46%
8-21 38%	3-pointers	8-18 44%
14-15 93%	Free throws	23-32 72%
33 14 off	Rebounds	42 11 off
11	Assists	16
5	Steals	3
3	Blocks	6
6	Turnovers	11
24	Fouls	15
24	Points in paint	32
6	Fast-break points	6

Players

WASH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Quimari Peterson G	38	18	2	3	6-13	4-10
Desmond Claude G	32	14	4	2	6-18	2-5
Wesley Yates III G	28	9	7	0	2-8	0-1
Franck Kepnang C	23	6	9	0	2-7	0-0
Zoom Diallo G	18	4	0	0	1-8	0-0
Bench
JJ Mandaquit G	32	8	2	6	3-7	1-2
Lathan Sommerville C	17	4	5	0	1-3	0-0
Jasir Rencher F	12	5	0	0	2-5	1-3

Did not play: BJ Roy, Hannes Steinbach, Christian Nitu, Courtland Muldrew, Jacob Ognacevic, Bryson Tucker, Mady Traore

COLO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Barrington Hargress G	31	7	2	8	3-7	0-0
Felix Kossaras G	28	11	1	0	4-7	3-6
Bangot Dak F	28	15	11	2	5-10	1-3
Sebastian Rancik F	27	11	7	3	2-10	1-5
Elijah Malone C	19	6	7	1	3-4	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Johnson G	26	13	3	1	1-4	1-2
Alon Michaeli F	16	12	3	0	5-7	2-2
Jalin Holland G	14	6	2	1	2-3	0-0
Josiah Sanders G	11	0	1	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Leonardo Van Elswyk, Tacko Ifaola, Jon Mani, Nick Randall, Ian Inman, Andrew Crawford

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WASH -2.5	WASH -2.3	COLO +0.2	W COLO covered
Total	151.5	162.2	Over 10.7	L Under
Projected score	—	WASH 82.2 · COLO 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WASH -1.5	COLO -17.0
1H total	75.9	77
1H projected score	WASH 38.7 · COLO 37.2	WASH 30 · COLO 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WASH LLWLW	3-3	50%	1-0	3-2
COLO LWWWW	4-2	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: WASH neutral site, as favorite; COLO neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH OUUOO	3-3	50%	5-1
COLO OOOOU	5-1	83%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASHlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
COLOlast 6	6-0 100%	4-2 67%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

WASH 3–4 COLOCOLO leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · COLO has won the last 3 meetings · WASH 4-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 24, 2023-24	COLO 98 @ WASH 81	WASH +2.5	COLO W
Dec 29, 2023-24	WASH 69 @ COLO 73	COLO -8.5	WASH W
Mar 8, 2022-23	COLO 74 vs WASH 68	WASH +2.5	COLO W
Jan 19, 2022-23	WASH 75 @ COLO 72	COLO -9.5	WASH W
Dec 4, 2022-23	COLO 63 @ WASH 73	WASH -0.5	WASH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Washington

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUAPB	W 94-50	-34.5	W +9.5	160.5	U 144
Nov 6	vsDEN	W 84-70	-27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@BAY	L 69-78	+6.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	@WSU	W 81-69	-8.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsSOU	W 99-93	-23.5	L −17.5	157.5	O 192
Nov 27	vsNEV	W 83-66	-3.5	W +13.5	145.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

+9.5

DEN

W 84-70

−13.5

BAY

L 69-78

−2.5

WSU

W 81-69

+3.5

SOU

W 99-93

−17.5

NEV

W 83-66

+13.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 94-50

−16.5

DEN

W 84-70

+0.5

BAY

L 69-78

−9.5

WSU

W 81-69

−8.5

SOU

W 99-93

+34.5

NEV

W 83-66

+3.5

over 3under 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +17.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMTST	W 84-78	-11.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Nov 8	vsEWU	W 102-97	-16.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 199
Nov 14	vsPROV	W 97-88	-1.5	W +7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 17	vsALST	W 94-66	-22.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUCD	W 95-79	-14.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 174
Nov 27	vsSF	W 79-69	+1.5	W +11.5	150.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

−5.5

EWU

W 102-97

−11.5

PROV

W 97-88

+7.5

ALST

W 94-66

+5.5

UCD

W 95-79

+1.5

W 79-69

+11.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MTST

W 84-78

+13.5

EWU

W 102-97

+46.5

PROV

W 97-88

+21.5

ALST

W 94-66

+3.5

UCD

W 95-79

+21.5

W 79-69

−2.5

over 5under 1avg +17.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Washington Huskies vs Colorado Buffaloes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Washington

Colorado

Washington

Colorado