Alaska Airlines Arena · at Washington
Closing line
WASH -23.5✓ SOU covered by 17.5
WASH -23.5✓ SOU covered by 17.5Closing total157.5Over by 34.5
 SOU | This season | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 2-0 | O/U | 1-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SOU 68–89 WASH · ✓ WASH (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | 2OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOU | 37 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 93 |
| WASH | 29 | 40 | 17 | 13 | 99 |
1st half: SOU 37, WASH 29 (SOU by 8). The model had WASH by 12.4 and a total of 73.3 (actual 66).
Team stats
| SOU | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-73 44% | Field goals | 29-71 41% |
| 7-19 37% | 3-pointers | 5-17 29% |
| 22-34 65% | Free throws | 36-50 72% |
| 43 15 off | Rebounds | 50 18 off |
| 14 | Assists | 11 |
| 9 | Steals | 9 |
| 6 | Blocks | 9 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 33 | Fouls | 27 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| SOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jacobs G | 48 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 9-27 | 2-5 |
| Cam Amboree G | 46 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 5-11 | 1-5 |
| Terrance Dixon Jr. F | 28 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| DaMariee Jones F | 23 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Rondae Hill G | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brandon Hardy G | 27 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Malek Abdelgowad F | 19 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Fazl Oshodi G | 18 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Joe Manning G | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ashton Magee G | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jayce Depron G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Keith Lamar F | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Andre Nunley, AJ Barnes, Lionel Bell, Puoch Dobuol, Trey Shephard, Femi Olaniyan
| WASH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quimari Peterson G | 50 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 4-16 | 2-8 |
| JJ Mandaquit G | 42 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Wesley Yates III G | 37 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 6-14 | 2-6 |
| Franck Kepnang C | 32 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Zoom Diallo G | 17 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Desmond Claude G | 34 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 6-14 | 1-1 |
| Jasir Rencher F | 18 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Lathan Sommerville C | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Courtland Muldrew G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Bryson Tucker, Christian Nitu, Hannes Steinbach, BJ Roy, Jacob Ognacevic, Mady Traore
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketWASH -23.5
ModelWASH -20.8
Model edgeSOU +2.7
W SOU covered
Total
Market157.5
Model156.5
Model edgeUnder 1.0
L Over
Projected score
SOU 67.8 · WASH 88.6
SOU 93 · WASH 99
Win probability
WASH 97%
1st half
Spread
WASH -12.4
SOU -8.0
Total
73.3
66 points
Projected score
SOU 30.5 · WASH 42.8
SOU 37 · WASH 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWASH -20.5
3 → WASH
CloseWASH -23.5
3 pts toward WASH
Total
Open154.5
▲ 3
Close157.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
SOU +1800 · WASH -6000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WASH -20.5 · closed WASH -23.5 · moved 3 toward WASHmodel WASH -21
model WASH -21
Opened 154.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 3 upmodel 156.5
model 156.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOUlast 2 | 0-2 0% | 1-1 50% | 2-0 100% |
| WASHlast 4 | 3-1 75% | 2-2 50% | 1-3 25% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern
2 games played
Straight up
0-2
0% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-0
100% overs · avg +31 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
ARK
ARKL 77-109
−5.5
5
@
MARQ
MARQL 82-100
+6.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@ARK
ARKL 77-109
+35.5
5
@MARQ
MARQL 82-100
+26.5
over 2under 0avg +31 ptslonger = bigger margin
Washington
4 games played
Straight up
3-1
75% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
UAPB
UAPBW 94-50
+9.5
6
vs
DEN
DENW 84-70
−13.5
9
@
BAY
BAYL 69-78
−2.5
14
@
WSU
WSUW 81-69
+3.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUAPB
UAPBW 94-50
−16.5
6
vsDEN
DENW 84-70
+0.5
9
@BAY
BAYL 69-78
−9.5
14
@WSU
WSUW 81-69
−8.5
over 1under 3avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern
0-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Marquette82–100
- L@ Arkansas77–109
A week or more of rest.
Washington
3-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Washington St81–69
- L@ Baylor69–78
- Wvs Denver84–70
- Wvs AR-Pine Bluff94–50
4 days since their last game.